College Football Picks Week 6 2024
Week 5 was tremendous. I won 4 of 5 my bets, and most of them in convincing fashion. Arizona won outright as a 13.5 point underdog and Kentucky won outright as a 16.5 point underdog. Northern Illinois really should have won outright as well- they allowed only 171 yards but allowed 24 points thanks to 4 turnovers.
I also gained a lot of EV in my preseason bets- Ole Miss under, Indiana over and Fresno State under all took big jumps this week.
In addition to my bets below, Clemson plays Florida State this week. The consensus line is Clemson -14, but if you were following my picks in the preseason, you have Clemson in this game at +4. My bets against Florida State have been the gift that keeps on giving.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: 5.28 units
Preseason Bets: 2.64 units
Total: -2.22 units
Tennessee @ Arkansas (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Arkansas has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this year. They outplayed a very good Texas A&M team last week but lost thanks to a -3 turnover margin. Their other loss this season was a crazy game against Oklahoma State where they racked up 648 yards of offense but lost the flukiest game of the season. Tennessee is a very good team, but my model does not have them in the top 5 like the polls do. Arkansas is a fringe top 25 team so I think this spread is at least a touchdown too big.
Arkansas +14 -110 (4 units)
Navy @ Air Force (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Navy has looked amazing so far this year, most notably in a 56-44 win over a hyped up Memphis team. QB Blake Horvath is putting up video game numbers for an option QB- he is 30/44 for 657 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT on the season. Air Force can be a difficult place to play given the altitude, and these two triple option teams are familiar with each other, but Air Force is in a rebuilding year and is clearly the worst of the three service academies. I think Navy should roll by multiple scores.
Navy -7 -110 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ Marshall (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Another week, another bet against Appalachian State. Their game last week was unfortunately canceled by Hurricane Helene, but when they have played this year, the Mountaineers have been very underwhelming. Marshall has one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt and I don’t think the market has caught on to just how much weaker App State is than they have been the last few years.
Marshall -1 -110 (2 units)
Auburn @ Georgia (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Auburn is 2-3 and questions are being asked about Hugh Freeze’s job security. However, they are really unlucky to be 2-3, as they outgained Oklahoma by nearly 200 yards last week and only lost thanks to an atrocious pick six by Payton Thorne. Auburn still has a very talented roster and the underlying fundamentals are much better than the record would indicate. Loyal readers will remember I picked Auburn in this game last year as a multi touchdown underdog and they nearly won outright, and I like them again this year.
Auburn +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas State @ Troy (Thursday, 6 PM Central)
Texas State has been my bogey team these last few years, I believe I am 0-4 ATS picking against them since GJ Kinne took over in San Marcos. I’m ready to get hurt again, as I like Troy and the points in this matchup. Troy is rebuilding under first year HC Gerard Parker, but is still a respectable outfit. This spread should be in the single digits, not nearly two touchdowns.
Troy +13.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 5 2024
Week 5 featured what may end up being the game of the year as Alabama survived a furious rally from Georgia. I’ve been high on Alabama’s national title chances for a while (loyal readers will remember I backed the Tide to make the SEC title game at +270 two weeks ago) but they look like co-SEC front runners with Texas now.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Alabama
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
I’ve had Iowa State projected as my Big 12 champion all season, and other projections are starting to join me now as they are one of two undefeated teams in the conference, along with BYU. The Big 12 race remains wide open as no team has better than +400 odds to win the conference but I’m sticking with the Cyclones for now.
5 Texas vs. 12 Boise State
6 Oregon vs. 11 Notre Dame
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Clemson vs. 9 Georgia
I think that Georgia might be in more danger of missing the playoff than people realize. They have 3 more difficult games (at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee) and then 5 games they will be heavy favorites in. If they go 1-2 in the tough games, they’ll be right on the playoff bubble- I imagine we will get at most one or two 9-3 teams in the playoff this year.
The more I look at their schedule, the more solid I feel about Penn State’s chances of making the playoff. They draw a favorable Big Ten schedule that features 5 more games against the league’s bottom half, leaving only challenges against USC, Ohio State and Washington. Even going 1-2 in those games would probably get them in the field.
Notre Dame was +350 to make the playoff after the Northern Illinois loss and I wish I had scooped that up. They’re all the way back to +115 now and will be double digit favorites in every game until their finale against USC.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Texas
Miami
Notre Dame
Penn State
Clemson
Ole Miss
Louisville
LSU
Iowa State
Tennessee
Texas A&M
USC
Kansas State
Missouri
Washington
SMU
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Kentucky
Indiana
Arkansas
LSU has been off the national radar since their week 1 to USC. The Tigers looked great against a solid South Alabama team this week and is a contender in the SEC race- both Ole Miss and Alabama have to come to Death Valley.
Washington is on no one’s radar but the advanced metrics love them. They dropped 500 yards against Rutgers this weekend but lost thanks to going 1 of 4 on field goals and 2 of 12 on third down. They could majorly impact the Big Ten race with a November schedule that features USC, Penn State and Oregon.
SMU has clawed their way back into the top 25 after a dominating win over Florida State. Their only loss (Week 2 to BYU) looks much better as BYU is still undefeated.They avoid both Miami and Clemson in ACC play and thus have a good shot at the ACC title game.
College Football Picks Week 5 2024
Last week was once again pretty tough. Toledo lost on a very strange call- they ran back a fumble for a TD for what appeared to be a game winning TD, but the play was blown dead for unclear reasons. Georgia Tech lost by 12 as a 10.5 point dog in a game where they had two turnovers deep in Louisville territory and had a blocked field goal returned for a TD. The good news is that I had two picks win in blowouts as South Alabama and Clemson dominated.
Overall I still feel decent about the process- I’m generating a ton of closing line value as almost all of my picks are moving in my direction over the course of the week. I’ve also had a bunch of teams that I like look really good in the games after I bet on them- for example, I bet on Vanderbilt in week 3, and in week 4 they nearly won outright at Missouri as a 20 point dog. Frustrating stuff, but I’ll continue to follow the same process and hope for better results.
Preseason Futures: +1.82 units
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Total: -8.32 units
Northern Illinois @ NC State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Northern Illinois is one of the better teams in the MAC, as we saw when they beat Notre Dame a few weeks ago. They played a clunker against Buffalo last week but their upside is clear. NC State, meanwhile, is a bottom 5 power conference team in the country. 6th year senior QB Grayson McCall was supposed to start but has been injured and may not play again this season. Even if they had McCall, I’m not convinced they’d be much better, as they allowed touchdowns on Clemson’s first four drives last week. This is my favorite pick of the season so far.
Northern Illinois +10 -110 (4 units)
Arizona @ Utah (Saturday, 9:15 PM Central)
On paper, it looks like Utah picked up one of the best wins of the season last week by knocking off a top 15 Oklahoma State team on the road. In actuality, Oklahoma State is incredibly fraudulent (unfortunately for me, they played their only good game of the season against Tulsa, which is the one time I bet against them). Loyal readers will remember that I bet this game in the preseason at Arizona +9.5 but I’m putting two more units down at +13.5. Utah is a solid, physical team but Arizona has huge explosive potential with the Fifita/McMillan combo and shouldn’t be a double digit dog here.
Arizona +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky @ Boston College (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Boston College has their best team in several years. QB Thomas Castellanos is explosive both on the ground and in the passing game, and their defense forced four turnovers against Michigan State last week. Western Kentucky has a solid team and a good QB in Caden Veltkamp but I think that BC is a fringe ACC contender and they need to be bigger favorites against any non power team.
Boston College -11 -110 (2 units)
Liberty @ Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This is going to be my third week in a row betting against App State and I’m 2-0 ATS so far- I don’t think the books have caught up to how much worse this team is than previous App State squads. They are a complete sieve on defense as we saw last week against South Alabama- and Liberty’s offense is much better than South Alabama’s. Liberty is finally getting into their groove after a sluggish opening to the season and knocked off a good ECU team by double digits last week.
Liberty -3.5 -110 (2 units)
Kentucky @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This game is a huge contrast of styles, and it’ll be strength on strength when the Ole Miss offense takes on the Kentucky defense. We still don’t know much about Ole Miss- the best team they’ve faced this season is #90 Wake Forest. Kentucky, meanwhile, got Georgia to play the kind of game that Kentucky wanted to play (low scoring and boring) and I think that they can do that against other top teams.
Kentucky +16.5 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville @ Notre Dame (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Notre Dame is fifth in my model, and would be second behind Ohio State if I tossed out the Northern Illinois game. That’s a big “if”, of course, but the Irish have been truly excellent in all three of their other games this season. Louisville has a talented roster but I am not sold on Tyler Shough as a big time QB and Notre Dame is much better than people realize.
Notre Dame -4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 4 2024
I was in Chapel Hill for what might have been the game of the day in Week 4 as James Madison knocked off North Carolina 70-50. Mack Brown’s tenure at UNC has always felt like a bit of a missed opportunity- QBs like Sam Howell and Drake Maye are not going to just walk through the door at Alabama, let alone North Carolina. I do think the Tar Heels could do better than Mack- they are the flagship university in a growing state with tons of recruits.
Elsewhere, the most impactful games on the playoff included Kansas State imploding against BYU, USC falling to Michigan and Missouri scraping by Vanderbilt. Missouri looks really shaky and I don’t think they’re a serious playoff contender anymore.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
No changes in my top 4 this week. My model still doesn’t trust Utah and thus Iowa State remains my pick to win an increasingly murky Big 12. Miami was really impressive in a road win over South Florida.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Liberty
6 Oregon vs. 11 Ole Miss
7 Texas vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Clemson vs. 9 Penn State
In my eyes, Clemson has fully rebounded from their loss to Georgia. Their schedule is really light with Louisville and South Carolina the main threats- I think an 11-2 Clemson team that wins out before an ACC title game loss to Miami should make the field. My model is still lower on Ole Miss and Tennessee than most others so I have them on the road in the first round as opposed to at home.
I’ve moved Liberty up to my 12 seed for the first time all year. Given their pillow soft schedule, the Flames would have to go 13-0 to make the playoff and would likely need all the other G5 conference champions to have multiple losses. With Liberty beating a good ECU team, and losses by Memphis, Toledo and Northern Illinois this week, that scenario is looking significantly more likely.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Notre Dame
Miami
Texas
Clemson
Penn State
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Iowa State
LSU
Louisville
Michigan
Missouri
USC
Washington
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Kansas State
Virginia Tech
Auburn
SMU
Next Ten: Indiana, UCF, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida, Utah, Arizona
Louisville is the best team in the sport that no one is talking about. They travel to Notre Dame this week- a win there and they’re firmly in the playoff hunt. Michigan rebounded after their win over USC. Their complete inability to pass will put a ceiling on them but they’re still extremely talented and clearly a top 25 team. SMU was a preseason sleeper ACC pick and has snuck back into my top 25 after a blowout win over TCU. Plus, their early loss to BYU doesn’t look so bad now that BYU is 4-0.
College Football Picks Week 4 2024
Last week was pretty bad. East Carolina +3.5 was my only pick that covered. It’s a good thing I got that line early, because it closed at East Carolina PK and they lost by 2. I was really surprised to see Vanderbilt lay a total egg against Georgia State. Time to forget about week 3 and move on to week 4.
I’ve also added some new futures bets this week that are at the bottom of this post.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Toledo @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Toledo pulled off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, going on the road and beating Mississippi State 41-17 as a double digit underdog. I’m going to continue to ride the Toledo train this week- the Rockets have the best roster in the MAC according to my model’s talent ranking. Western Kentucky is a decent team but I think they’re overrated after beating up on a really poor MTSU team last week. I am shocked Toledo is an underdog here as they are a dark horse playoff contender.
Toledo +1.5 -110 (3 units)
Fresno State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 7:30 PM Central)
This pick should not be a surprise given that I bet on New Mexico and against Fresno State in the preseason. New Mexico has been a pleasant surprise despite their 0-3 start- they are 3-0 ATS and should be able to beat their win total of 2. New Mexico put up 448 yards on Auburn last week and I like their chances to hang with Fresno State.
New Mexico +17 -110 (2 units)
South Alabama @ Appalachian State (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
South Alabama got off to a disappointing start with two losses to G5 teams, but righted the ship last week with an astounding 87 points against FCS Northwestern State. The Jaguars still have one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt. I am fading App State for the second week in a row after they were decimated by Clemson.
South Alabama +7 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
These two teams both figure to be near the bottom of the Big 12. Houston got the doors blown off in week 1 against UNLV (loyal readers will unfortunately remember that game), but has been very impressive since, covering their last two by double digits. Cincinnati might be the most poorly managed program in the Power Five and I think they’re headed for last place in the conference.
Houston +5.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I do not understand this line. Louisville is a solid team (they’re in my model’s top 25 with two blowout wins over bad teams) but Georgia Tech is as well. Some of the air was taken out of the Georgia Tech balloon after their loss to Syracuse, but I think that was more about Kyle McCord’s epic performance than Georgia Tech’s issues. The Yellow Jackets are a clear bowl team and should keep this close.
Georgia Tech +10.5 -110 (1 unit)
NC State @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
NC State has been one of the most disappointing teams of the year. They barely beat FCS Western Carolina and then struggled with an awful Louisiana Tech team last week. QB Grayson McCall was injured against Louisiana Tech and it is unclear if he will play in this matchup. Clemson is still the most talented team in the ACC and should dominate NC State.
Clemson -14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Rutgers @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I think people got a bit too low on Virginia Tech after their loss to Vanderbilt. There’s a reason this team was a sleeper pick to win the ACC in the preseason and they showed that in a dominating road win at Old Dominion last week. They are far more talented than Rutgers (who is 2-0, but has played no one) and I expect them to win easily here.
Virginia Tech -5.5 -110 (1 unit)
Alabama to make SEC Title Game +270 (2 units)
Most people would agree that Georgia, Alabama and Texas are the three best teams in the SEC. My model has the three teams within just a few points of each other, as do most other models. Alabama’s schedule is relatively easy by the standards of the SEC- they avoid Texas, host Georgia, and avoid my #4 and #5 SEC teams in Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I really don’t get this line, I think Alabama might have better odds of making the SEC Title game than Georgia and they’re priced way lower.
Tulane to win the AAC +250 (1 unit)
Tulane is 1-2 but has acquitted themselves well in close losses to good teams in Kansas State and Oklahoma. Those non-conference losses don’t hurt the Green Wave in the conference standings, and I think they’re dead even with Memphis for the title of best team in the league. Tulane should make the AAC title game- they get to host both Memphis and USF and every other conference game is against a team outside my top 100- and if they get there, they very well can win the title game.
Indiana to make the Playoff +3000 (0.5 units)
Indiana to make the Playoff? Have I lost my mind? Hear me out on this one- the Hoosiers have been the biggest surprise of the season so far, they’re 25th in my ratings and are in the 20s in most other computer ratings as well. They have to travel to Ohio State, but I actually have them favored in every other game on the schedule as they avoid Oregon, Penn State and USC. A 10-2 Big Ten team is very likely to make the Playoff and I think this is a great long shot bet.
College Football Ratings- Week 3 2024
Week 3 was light on earth-shattering results but we nearly got one in Lexington. Georgia was lucky to escape Kentucky with a win- they were getting pushed around by the Kentucky front seven and ran for only 102 yards on 30 carries. We had interesting results elsewhere- Georgia State, Toledo, Memphis and Washington State all won as decent underdogs.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
I considered giving the SEC auto-bid to Alabama but I’m keeping Georgia there for now. Miami moves back into the ACC autobid, they passed Clemson in my ratings after a 62-0 demolition of Ball State this weekend.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Northern Illinois
6 Oregon vs. 11 USC
7 Texas vs. 10 Ole Miss
8 Clemson vs. 9 Penn State
Oregon finally looked like the team we’ve been expecting all offseason in a dominating win over Oregon State. The Ducks won’t face a real test until Ohio State comes to Eugene on October 12th. I finally relented and moved Ole Miss into my field, replacing a Missouri team that was underwhelming as a two touchdown favorite against Boston College.
Top 25
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Alabama
Oregon
Notre Dame (+6)
Texas (-1)
Miami (+1)
Texas A&M (-1)
Clemson (-3)
Penn State
Ole Miss (+2)
Missouri (-3)
LSU (-1)
Tennessee (+4)
USC (-1)
Iowa State (-1)
Michigan
Louisville (+1)
Virginia Tech (+1)
Oklahoma (-4)
Georgia Tech (+1)
Kansas State (+6)
Boston College (+9)
Kansas (+2)
Indiana (+18)
Next Ten: Auburn, UCF, Kentucky, South Carolina, SMU, Iowa, Boise State, Washington, TCU, Arizona
Computer models, including mine, continue to love Texas A&M. I expect the Aggies to be unranked, but favored, when Missouri comes to College Station in a few weeks. My model is finally starting to catch on to Kansas State who dominated Arizona on Friday night. I was bullish on Indiana in the preseason but even I did not expect them to crack my top 25 this season, but the Hoosiers decimated UCLA on the road. Indiana is 3-0 and might be favored in every game until November.
College Football Picks Week 3 2024
Week 2 was a mixed bag where I finished close to 0 units for the second week in a row. I had some easy covers (Washington State -1.5, Boise State +18.5) and one really lucky cover (Baylor +15.5). Unfortunately most of my losses were not close, UTSA -3 against Texas State was a particularly bad loss. Texas State has become a bit of a bogey team for me, my model really does not know how to handle their unusual transfer-heavy approach to roster construction.
In addition to the picks below, loyal readers will remember that I bet Arizona +8 against Kansas State as part of my preseason bets. That line is now Arizona +6.5- I would’ve considered a unit there if I didn’t already have money on the game at a better price.
Week 1: -0.38 units
Week 2: -0.34 units
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Oklahoma State is ranked 13th in the AP top 25, which is a complete joke. The Cowboys allowed 600 yards of offense to a mediocre Arkansas team last week and needed a comedy of late Arkansas errors to win. The most concerning part of the game was the complete inability to get star RB Ollie Gordon going. Gordon was supposed to be a Heisman front runner but was held to 49 yards on 17 carries. Tulsa is a mediocre G5 team, but they should not be three touchdown home underdogs here.
Tulsa +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Vanderbilt @ Georgia State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Vanderbilt has been one of the surprises of the season so far. They beat Virginia Tech as a double digit underdog in Week 1 and scored so many points last week against Alcorn State that they ran out of fireworks at the stadium. It’s a massive leap forward for a program that is only three years removed from getting demolished at home by East Tennessee State. Georgia State is a team in transition after HC Shawn Elliott left in the middle of the offseason and struggled to get past Chattanooga last week. Vandy should roll here.
Vanderbilt -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Appalachian State @ East Carolina (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
App State was supposed to be a contender for the G5 playoff spot but looked awful against Clemson last week. It is one thing to lose to Clemson but quite another to allow touchdowns on each of the first 8 drives of the game. On the other hand, ECU is 2-0, already matching their win total from last year’s disastrous 2-10 season. The Pirates were hilariously unlucky to go 2-10 last year and should make a bowl game this year. App State looked so suspect last week that I don’t think they should be a road favorite here.
East Carolina +3.5 -110 (2 units)
Ole Miss @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
Ole Miss has played absolutely nobody to start the season, although they have won their two games by a combined score of 128-3. Loyal readers will remember that I was very low on the Rebels in the preseason and this is my first real opportunity to fade them. Wake Forest has an experienced QB in Hank Bachmeier and can hang in there against the Rebels.
Wake Forest +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado @ Colorado State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I tried to set realistic expectations for Colorado this season, but they have failed to even meet those through two games. A 28-10 loss to Nebraska does not really tell the full story- the Buffaloes were out of the game from the jump. Colorado State, a newly minted Pac-12 program, kept this game close last year and should be able to do so again here.
Colorado State +9.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 2 2024
Week 2 challenged a lot of assumptions that I had about the state of the college football landscape. Some teams that I was feeling pretty good about, like Notre Dame, Penn State and Oklahoma, looked awful. Other teams that I thought were in for a rough season, like South Carolina, Arizona State and BYU, looked pretty good.
Bracketology
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Clemson
4 Iowa State
Clemson rocketed up my rankings this year after they demolished App State. The Mountaineers were supposed to be one of the better teams in the G5, and Clemson scored 8 straight touchdowns to start the game to beat them. This put the Tigers narrowly ahead of Miami in my ratings so I am giving them the ACC auto bid for now.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Northern Illinois
6 Texas vs. 11 USC
7 Oregon vs. 10 Missouri
8 Miami vs. 9 Penn State
Oregon remains in my projected bracket despite significantly underperforming expectations in both games so far. Penn State falls outside of my projected top 8 after a shaky performance against Bowling Green, and thus is projected to travel to Miami. My model viewed Northern Illinois as a MAC contender prior to their win over Bowling Green and now says they are the third best G5 team behind Boise State and Memphis. Given that they have the best win any G5 team is likely to pick up all year, I’ve slotted them in as the 12 seed.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Alabama
Oregon (+1)
Texas (+3)
Clemson (+8)
Texas A&M (+3)
Miami (+1)
Missouri (+3)
Penn State (-6)
Notre Dame (-4)
LSU (-6)
Ole Miss (+2)
USC (+11)
Iowa State (+1)
Oklahoma (-5)
Michigan (-4)
Tennessee (+10)
Louisville (+1)
Virginia Tech (-2)
Auburn (-2)
Georgia Tech
Arizona (-6)
UCF (+10)
South Carolina (+21)
Next Ten: Kansas, TCU, Kansas State, SMU, Florida, Boise State, Boston College, Washington, Iowa, Arkansas
My mode is not the only computer that loves Texas A&M, although most people would call me crazy for having them in the top 10. The Aggies still have an incredibly talented roster, and while they have some question marks at QB, I expect their defense to suffocate Florida this weekend. I think that a lot of people are sleeping on Louisville. The Cardinals demolished a solid Jacksonville State team last week and look like the clear third best team in the ACC behind Clemson and Miami. South Carolina vaults into my top 25 after demolishing Kentucky on the road, but faces a stern test from LSU this week.
College Football Picks Week 2 2024
I’ve gotten one thing right so far this season- selling Florida State. The FSU/Boston College game is in the 4th quarter at time of writing but I will preemptively give myself credit for winning Boston College +17.5. It is hard for me to remember a team that started the year in the top 10 that has face planted this hard, this fast. Even 2007 Michigan turned out to have a decent year after they lost to App State.
Week 1: -0.38 units
Baylor @ Utah (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
One of my favorite bets in the preseason was Utah under 9.5 wins. I also am a bit bullish on Baylor- the Bears have a much better roster than last year’s disastrous record would indicate. Baylor should also have improved QB play with Toledo transfer DeQuan Finn manning the offense. I was high on Baylor and low on Utah in the preseason and that didn’t change after week 1.
Baylor +15.5 -112 (2 units)
Sam Houston State @ UCF (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
I like Sam Houston this year- I had a preseason flyer on them to make the CUSA Championship game at +550. This looks quite good after they blew out Rice last week as an 11 point underdog. I’ll stick on the Sam Houston train this week, especially as they play a UCF team that got surprisingly shaky QB play from KJ Jefferson in week 1 against New Hampsihre.
Sam Houston State +23 -112 (2 units)
Texas Tech @ Washington State (Saturday, 9 PM Central)
Texas Tech scraped by FCS Abilene Christian last week, and they really could have lost if not for some awful playcalling down the stretch by ACU. Despite being in conference limbo in the two team Pac-12, Washington State was able to hold onto a lot of their key contributors from last year’s squad. I viewed these teams as about equal in the preseason and TTU looked awful last week, so a line of 1.5 seems a bit small.
Washington State -1.5 -105 (1 unit)
UTSA @ Texas State (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
These two teams are both popular preseason sleeper picks to take the G5 berth in the 12 team playoff. My model is a bit lower than the consensus on Texas State though- they still don’t have the years of recruiting history that I’d like to see from a roster ready to compete at that level. Add in a very shaky week 1 performance against FCS Lamar and I like UTSA here.
UTSA +3 -115 (1 unit)
UAB @ Louisiana Monroe (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’m sad about this line- I saw it open at UAB -8.5 and was ready to pounce on that for several units. Unfortunately, by the time I was able to bet the line had moved all the way to 13. (This wasn’t my only big miss of Sunday- I also loved Maryland -7 and it was -10.5 by the time I got around to betting). I’ll still make a small bet on UAB here- I’m bullish on Bryan Vincent in the long term at ULM, but his current roster might be the worst in FBS.
UAB -13 -108 (1 unit)
Boise State @ Oregon (Saturday, 9 PM Central)
Boise State played a thriller in week 1, with possible first round draft pick Ashton Jeanty rushing for six touchdowns in a back and forth win over Georgia Southern. My model was very impressed with the Broncos’ rushing attack and has them on the doorstep of the top 25. Oregon, meanwhile, looked shockingly bad against FCS Idaho and fell considerably in my model. 18 is too big a line for this game, I think Boise can hang in there a bit against the Ducks.
Boise State +18 -108 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 1 2024
Week 1 was entertaining but contained relatively few surprises. At time of writing (I am publishing this prior to the Sunday and Monday games given my schedule this weekend), favorites went 29-9 straight up. Vanderbilt, Sam Houston State and Nevada were the 3 double digit underdogs to win. This is definitely a bit more chalk than we normally see on week 1.
Bracketology
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Miami (FL)
4 Iowa State
Georgia is going to be the consensus #1 team everywhere after their dominant win over Clemson. The gap between them and Ohio State is as big as the gap between Ohio State and #12 Oklahoma.
Everyone is going to have Miami (FL) in their projected playoff after their dominating win over Florida. At least I can say I was first as I had them in my field last week as well.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Boise State
6 Oregon vs. 11 Arizona
7 Penn State vs. 10 Missouri
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 LSU
Alabama jumped up to my top at-large team after they thrashed Western Kentucky and Oregon struggled with Idaho. I’ll take a flier and put Arizona in this week’s field after their dominating offensive performance against New Mexico. Boise State picked up a nice win at Georgia Southern and has put some distance between them and the rest of the Group of Five.
Top 25
Numbers in parentheses represent changes in ranking from last week. Reminder that all rankings are prior to the USC/LSU and Florida State/Boston College games.
Georgia
Ohio State
Alabama (+2)
Penn State (+3)
Oregon (-2)
LSU (-2)
Notre Dame (+4)
Texas
Miami (FL) (+6)
Texas A&M (-4)
Oklahoma (-2)
Missouri
Michigan
Clemson (-4)
Ole Miss (+4)
Iowa State (-2)
Arizona (+1)
Virginia Tech (-1)
Auburn (+5)
Louisville
SMU (+1)
Georgia Tech (+17)
Kentucky
TCU (+6)
USC (-1)
Next Ten: Florida, Kansas, Tennessee, Iowa, Maryland, Florida State, Kansas State, Boise State, UCF, Northwestern
Penn State looked great against West Virginia and will not face a real test until they travel to USC in mid-October. Georgia Tech climbs into my top 25 after their wins over Florida State and Georgia State- this is their first appearance in my top 25 in a decade. A few teams such as Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn rose a few spots after beating up on FCS teams.
College Football Picks Week 1 2024
Week 0 was a fun appetizer for the season. It was a good week for my picks as I have a bunch of short Florida State exposure (FSU under 9.5 wins, FSU to miss the playoff) and they laid an egg against Georgia Tech. It was almost a great weekend, as I have Nevada over 2.5 wins and New Mexico over 2 wins and they both nearly won as double digit underdogs. Week 1 features only 40 FBS vs. FBS games so I only have a few picks this weekend.
Ohio @ Syracuse (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’m generally pretty good at predicting betting lines, but this one really took me by surprise. Ohio won 10 games last year and I project them to finish 4th in the MAC. They’re a perfectly average G5 team. Syracuse is in their first game under new head coach Fran Brown, and while I am bullish on the future there, I expect some growing pains in year 1. Syracuse is 62nd in my ratings, near the bottom of the ACC, and should not be a two touchdown favorite over a competent team like Ohio.
Ohio +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Ohio ML +680 (1 unit)
UNLV @ Houston (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Houston was an abject disaster last year and Dana Holgorsen was finally shown the door at the end of the season. Willie Fritz takes over after an amazing run at Tulane and brought over many players with him, making this a faster rebuild. UNLV was a very fun team last year but ran unsustainably hot in close games and they also need to replace electric QB Jayden Maiava. Houston is by far the more physical team and I think they should win this one.
Houston -1 -112 (2 units)
Boston College @ Florida State (Monday, 6:30 PM Central)
It’s well established that I’m a Florida State hater this year, and I was validated with their week 0 loss to Georgia Tech. I wish I had posted my week 1 picks prior to week 0 as I was going to bet Boston College +21.5 in this game, but FSU looked so bad that I still like this price. Boston College turns over a new leaf under new head coach (and Brown University alum) Bill O’Brien and there is enough talent on this roster that they should escape the basement of the ACC. I will continue piling on the bets against Florida State.
Boston College +17 -110 (2 units)
Clemson vs. Georgia (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This is the first time Clemson has been a double digit underdog since a 2014 trip to Tallahassee to face Jameis Winston’s Florida State team. (That was four playoff appearances and two national championships ago). I am backing Clemson to win the ACC this year and think that they can keep things close with a Georgia team that may be figuring things out a little on offense after losing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey.
Clemson +13.5 -108 (1 unit)
2024 Preseason Top 25 and Bracketology
Week 1 is just days away, so it’s time to reveal my model’s preseason top 25. Starting this year I will also include my 12 team playoff bracketology every week. I’d like to build a college football bracketology model but I haven’t gotten around to it yet. In the meantime I’m just using my model’s rankings and making my own guesses about how it will turn into a 12 team bracket.
Top 25
Georgia (+2)
Ohio State
Oregon (-2)
LSU (+2)
Alabama (+3)
Texas A&M (+7)
Penn State
Texas (+3)
Oklahoma
Clemson (+5)
Notre Dame (-6)
Missouri (-2)
Michigan (-9)
Iowa State (+9)
Miami (FL) (+9)
Florida (+6)
Virginia Tech (+9)
Arizona (+4)
Ole Miss (+11)
Louisville (-8)
Florida State (-4)
SMU (-1)
Kentucky (+15)
Auburn (+12)
Iowa (+25)
Georgia opens the season as my preseason #1 for the third year running. The rest of my top 3 agrees with the consensus but after that I start to disagree, as I have LSU and Texas A&M in the spots where the AP poll has Texas and Ole Miss. The SEC will probably get 4 or 5 teams into the playoff, and I think that LSU and A&M have a great chance to take those spots.
In the Big Ten, I have Penn State a bit higher than Michigan, but both are quite some distance behind Ohio State and Oregon. Iowa sneaks in as my fifth ranked Big Ten team, both the AP Poll and I agree that they’re the 25th team.
I have Iowa State as my top rated team in a very crowded Big 12 but plenty of Big 12 teams are within shouting distance. Clemson is my ACC favorite as discussed in my season preview posts.
Bracketology
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Clemson
4 Iowa State
The top four teams are my four projected major conference champions. I’ve given the Big 12 nod to Iowa State for now but it really could be anybody.
5 Oregon vs. 12 Memphis
6 LSU vs. 11 Miami (FL)
7 Alabama vs. 10 Texas A&M
8 Penn State vs. 9 Notre Dame
I diverged a bit from just going down the list of my ratings here to account for schedules. I’ll put Texas A&M in despite a killer schedule. I think they’re a small favorite over Notre Dame in week 1 and let’s say they go 9-3 to grab one of the last playoff spots. I decided to give an at-large bid to the ACC, Miami avoids Clemson this year and maybe they lose the ACC title game to Clemson and get an at-large. Finally, I went with Memphis for my 12 seed- they’re in a dead heat with Boise State for top G5 team in my ratings and I think if both teams are 11-1 they will get the nod due to a stronger conference schedule.
2024 College Football Preseason Bets- Part 3
This is part 3 of my three part college football preseason bets series. I covered the four major conferences in the first two parts and today I’ll be tackling the Group of Five. You can find part 1 of the series here and part 2 here.
Sun Belt
Arkansas State over 5.5 wins -170 (4 units)
Arkansas State to win Sun Belt West +600 (2 units)
Arkansas State has gone through the wilderness recently with four consecutive losing seasons. However, the roots of a strong program are in place- the Red Wolves rattled off nine consecutive winning seasons from 2011 to 2019 and have one of the highest recent recruiting averages of any G5 program. However, the real reason to be bullish on this team is QB Jaylen Raynor. Raynor was Sun Belt Freshman of the Year as a true freshman last year and Arkansas State did very well to keep him in Jonesboro- there was a long line of major conference suitors waiting to grab him from the transfer portal. This team has always had the talent and facilities to be one of the best in their tier of the sport and I think this will be a breakout year.
American
Army under 6 wins -120 (4 units)
Army has joined the American for the 2024 season. They’ve been an independent for their entire history except for a brief seven year stint in CUSA twenty years ago. Army normally has the luxury of padding their schedule with a few easy wins (they’ve played multiple FCS times quite a bit in recent years) but those breaks in the schedule are now gone with a full conference slate. There are a few other structural disadvantages facing the Black Knights- the academies cannot add players via the transfer portal and changes to chop block rules have forced them to re-invent their offense. All of this adds up to a less talented team running an unfamiliar scheme against a tougher schedule- a recipe for a rebuilding season.
Rice over 6.5 wins -140 (1 unit)
Rice is coming off of back to back bowl seasons for the first time in a decade. Last year’s team was their best in recent years, knocking off local rival Houston as a double digit underdog. While their two big name players depart in QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey, nearly every other player of significance is back. I expect this to be one of the best defensive teams in the AAC and they look significantly better than last year’s six win outfit.
Mountain West
New Mexico over 2 wins -130 (2 units)
New Mexico is one of the toughest jobs in FBS- they have no resources, no obvious recruiting territory and no history of success. However, long time readers of my blog will know that these are exactly the sorts of teams that I like betting on. This line implies that the Lobos are a bottom three team in the sport and I just don’t see that. They went 4-8 last year including a road win over a good Fresno State team, and while this year’s outfit is worse, I don’t think that they’re so bad that a 1-11 season should be the base case.
Fresno State under 8 wins +130 (2 units)
Fresno State was a deceptive 9-4 last year, sneaking past a bad Eastern Washington team in 2OT and winning close games left and right. I had them around the middle of the pack in the Mountain West despite the fact that they were flirting around the edges of the AP poll for much of the season. Since I think they had so much smoke and mirrors last year, I’m just lower on this year’s team than the consensus. They’re a solid team that should go to a bowl game but they’re not a conference title contender.
Nevada over 2.5 wins -110 (1 unit)
Like New Mexico, this is another really bad team whose win total has still been set too low. Nevada fired Ken Wilson after a disastrous two year tenure but made a really smart hire in former Montana State HC Jeff Choate. This year’s roster is clearly better than the awful rosters of the Wilson era and features a handful of former power conference players. Nevada will be at the bottom of the Mountain West but the difference between them and the rest of the league is small enough that they can find three wins.
Conference USA
Sam Houston State to make CUSA Title Game +550 (1 unit)
Sam Houston State made their FBS debut last year and got off to an 0-8 start that featured a parade of close losses. They finished 3-1 and were definitely better than their 3-9 overall record. Now in their second FBS season, they finally have a full roster designed for the 85 man scholarship limit. Liberty is the runaway favorite to win CUSA but the league is a total jumble after that. I think Sam Houston is in a virtual tie for second best in the league with several other teams which makes this a pretty attractive price.
2024 College Football Preseason Bets- Part 2
This is part 2 of my three part preseason bets series. If you missed part 1, you can find it here. Today I’ll cover the Big 12 and ACC before going over the Group of Five conferences in Part 3.
Big 12
Utah under 9.5 wins +125 (3 units)
There has been a rush to anoint a top team in the Big 12 this season and the consensus has latched onto Utah and Kansas State as the two main picks. The fact of the matter is that I have no clue who the best team in the Big 12 will be and neither do you- none of the conference’s sixteen (!) teams consistently recruit at a top 20 level, and none of them have the sort of structural advantages that Texas and Oklahoma long held over the rest of the league. Utah will be a good team, but I can’t support a win total of 9.5 for a team that doesn’t have a dominant talent advantage over the rest of their league.
Kansas State under 9.5 wins -150 (1 unit)
The same arguments I made in the Utah blurb apply here. The reason I am sizing this bet smaller is that Kansas State has an extremely promising QB in sophomore Avery Johnson. The sample size is small on him- he has less than 200 career snaps- but if he plays to his potential the Wildcats are a top 10 team. However, there are certainly a lot of outcomes where he is mediocre, and the rest of the roster is solid but not spectacular. K-State is the Big 12 team most likely to make a run deep into the playoffs but also might end up going 6-6.
Iowa State to make Big 12 Title Game +450 (1 unit)
I think there’s some good value on Iowa State here. As mentioned above, the top few teams in the Big 12 are pretty indistinguishable to me. Iowa State belongs in that group even if others don’t have them in the mix- they return nearly everyone from last year’s team and figure to be extremely strong on both lines.
Kansas to win the Big 12 +950 (1 unit)
Kansas is one of the highest variance teams in college football. If he’s healthy, Jalon Daniels is a top 5 quarterback in the sport. “If he’s healthy” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, as he has been on and off the field for two years. Kansas could very well end up 5-7, but if Daniels can stay on the field they might be the best team in the conference.
Arizona to win the Big 12 +1100 (1 unit)
Arizona was my most profitable team last year. I backed the Wildcats five times last year and they went 5-0 ATS in those games. HC Jedd Fisch departed for Washington and took some players with him, but exciting QB Noah Fifita and first team all-conference WR Tetairoa McMillan remain. The Wildcats were a legitimate top 15 team last year and I’m surprised I can get them at +1100 to win the Big 12 when they have the best QB/WR tandem in the conference.
Arizona +9.5 -110 @ Utah (2 units)
Arizona +8 -110 @ Kansas State (1 unit)
Iowa State +9 -110 @ Utah (2 units)
Iowa State PK -110 vs. Kansas State (1 unit)
I was able to find lookahead lines for a lot of Big 12 games this season. These four games all feature teams I’m backing this preseason playing teams that I’m fading so it’s a nice way to get a bit more exposure on my preseason opinions.
ACC
Florida State under 9.5 wins -110 (2 units)
Florida State to miss College Football Playoff -180 (2 units)
Florida +11.5 -110 vs. Florida State (2 units)
Florida State is going to take a pretty significant step back from last year’s 13-1 squad. With Jordan Travis departing for the NFL, I was really surprised to see them go after QB DJ Uiagalelei in the portal. DJU is a fine quarterback but I can’t imagine him being the starter for one of the top five teams in the nation. Talent departs up and down the roster with other studs like Keon Colemand and Jared Verse also off to the NFL. This is a hard schedule that features five or six potential top 25 teams and I think the ‘Noles are a significant step behind ACC favorites Clemson this year. For the second year in a row, I’m also throwing in a preseason bet on the Florida/Florida State game, I have that line in the low single digits.
Virginia over 4.5 wins +100 (2 units)
Virginia has always been a confusing team to me- they are in a great recruiting state and have plenty of money. There’s really not many structural differences between them and say, Tennessee. Despite this, the Cavaliers have spent exactly two weeks in the top 20 of the polls since 2007. I think that HC Tony Elliott is looking to harness these resources to build for the long term in Charlottesville and he should turn a corner in year three. QB Anthony Colandrea showed flashes of brilliance in his freshman season but also made some horrible mistakes. He will iron out those freshman mistakes and the talent elsewhere on this roster is no longer among the worst in the Power Five.
Clemson to win the ACC +350 (1 unit)
Clemson +4 -110 @ Florida State (1 unit)
Much has been made about HC Dabo Swinney’s archaic views on roster construction- Clemson was the only team outside the service academies to not add anyone in the portal this offseason. However, despite all the negative press, this is by far the most talented team in the ACC as the Tigers continue to sign top 10 classes on the regular. Only Miami and Florida State are even in the same ballpark as Clemson from a talent perspective. Even in their recent “down” years this has still been a top 15 team in the sport. I’ll also gladly back the best team in the ACC as a four point dog against Florida State.
2024 College Football Preseason Bets- Part 1
We’re only a week away from college football season, which means it is time for my preseason bets. This is always one of my favorite blog posts to write all season- I’ve had a pretty good track record on win totals bets in the last few years.
If you’re new to my site for the 2024 season, my picks are all based off of a computer model that I have been developing since 2011. If you’re interested in learning about the model, the most recent documentation I have on it is a post I wrote on my old blog back in 2017. I’ve made several changes in the years since that post, but the fundamental bones of the model remain the same as they were back in 2017.
All of my picks are suggested by my model and then vetted by me. I find it useful to combine both a quantitative and a qualitative approach to making picks. For example, in 2020 my model had a hard time dealing with teams having large numbers of COVID absences, and a lot of manual adjustments were necessary. I spend a good amount of time each summer learning about all 134 FBS teams so that I can provide some human context to my picks. This mixture of math and intuition can hopefully provide another winning season to my readers.
In today’s article I will tackle the SEC and Big Ten, with the rest of the conferences to come later this week.
Betting History
2018: -5.88 units
2019: +30.71 units
2020: +34.36 units
2021: -34.75 units
2022: +9.31 units
2023: -2.52 units
Total: +31.23 units
SEC
Ole Miss under 9.5 wins -105 (4 units)
Ole Miss to miss College Football Playoff +100 (2 units)
Ole Miss is in the preseason AP top 10 for the first time since 2009- this year’s Rebels squad has the highest expectations of any team in my lifetime. You can see why- last year’s team finished 9th in the AP poll, QB Jaxson Dart returns, and Lane Kiffin dominated the portal this offseason. However, I’m not really buying the hype. For starters, they weren’t close to a top 10 team last year- their 11-2 record disguises the fact that both losses were blowouts and they squeaked past mediocre Arkansas and Auburn teams. Second, despite the work in the portal, their overall talent level is still quite a bit below the top teams of the SEC. They’ve been good recently, but they haven’t been stacking up several years of top 10 classes that schools like LSU and Alabama have. This is one of my favorite bets of the preseason.
Florida over 4.5 wins -155 (4 units)
Florida +10 -110 @ Tennessee (1 unit)
2024 Florida is going to play one of the toughest schedules of all time. There’s an 8 game SEC slate featuring Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M (and for the first time in 30 years, no Vanderbilt, as the SEC has done away with divisions). This is bookended by non-conference games against Florida State, Miami and UCF. Many people have labeled HC Billy Napier a dead man walking in only his third season in Gainesville. I’m going to go against the grain and say that the Gators have enough talent to make a bowl game against this slate. Last year’s team may have gone 5-7, but they were one of the best teams to finish with a losing record in a decade. The recruiting is still firmly in the top half of the SEC and they have stable QB play in Graham Mertz. Florida is a fringe top 25 team in my model and that is enough for six wins even against this schedule. I’m also throwing in a bet on the Gators against a Tennessee team that I think is a bit overrated.
Texas to miss College Football Playoff +175 (2 units)
Texas finally broke through last season with a Playoff appearance and their first top 5 finish since 2009. However, they finished the season a bit outside the top 5 in my ratings, thanks to a series of close calls against bad teams- they really should have lost to an awful Houston team, for example. This year’s team is probably better than the 2023 outfit, but given I was low on them last year that still puts them a full tier below Georgia and a half tier below Alabama in the new look SEC. This price implies they are a top 4 team in the sport and I think they’re more like seventh or eighth best.
Oklahoma to make College Football Playoff +450 (1 unit)
Oklahoma to make SEC Title Game +1000 (0.5 units)
Oklahoma +8.5 -110 vs. Texas (1 unit)
Oklahoma +6 -110 @ Ole Miss (1 unit)
The difference between this line and Texas’ line shows you how people overvalue a few bounces here and there. There was almost no daylight between these teams last year- Oklahoma won their head to head matchup, but missed the Big 12 title game thanks to close losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State. I expect Texas to be the better team of the two this year, but there’s not a massive difference between the two teams.
Luckily there are a lot of lookahead lines available for SEC conference games, so I’m throwing in some bets on Oklahoma when they play SEC teams that I’m bearish on.
Big Ten
Indiana over 5.5 wins -135 (1 unit)
Things got pretty rough in Tom Allen’s last season in Bloomington, as Indiana went 3-9 last year and should have lost to one of the worst teams in FBS in Akron. However, the 2024 Hoosiers would be touchdown favorites over the 2023 squad. New HC Curt Cignetti brought in a whole host of transfers from his old gig at James Madison and the talent on this roster has escaped the basement of the Big Ten. Indiana is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Big Ten ditching divisions as Penn State falls off the schedule, replaced by Northwestern. I expect a bowl in Cignetti’s first year.
Way-Too-Early 2024 College Football Top 25
The 2023 college football season will come to a close tomorrow night when Michigan and Washington will face off for the national title. That means it’s time for my annual preview of the 2024 season. I’ve made some educated guesses about NFL draft declarations and transfer portal decisions here but there are still some potentially impactful decisions (Cameron Ward, Quinn Ewers etc.) still to be made that could shake up this list quite a bit.
Projected 12 Team Playoff
9 of my projected top 10 teams hail from the new look Big Ten or the new look SEC, so this projected field is heavy on those conferences. Interestingly, it does give my projected ACC and Big 12 champions the 3 and 4 seeds. I’ve just put teams in the playoff based on their preseason ranking with no real adjustment made for their expected strength of schedule.
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Arizona
4 Clemson
5 Alabama vs. 12 Memphis
6 Texas vs. 11 Notre Dame
7 Oregon vs. 10 Michigan
8 Missouri vs. 9 Penn State
Projected Top 25
This top 25 is just my personal thoughts- I don’t yet have the roster data required to run my model for the 2024 season. The list is meant to be a guess as to what my model’s 2024 preseason top 25 will look like- it is meant to be a predictor of how good teams will be in 2024, not how good their resumes will be at the end of the season.
1. Georgia (2023: 13-1, SEC East Champions)
Georgia looks to be the clear preseason #1 for 2024. QB Carson Beck returns, and the Bulldogs might have the best offensive line and the best defensive line in the sport next year. The main concern is at the skill positions where both TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey are likely to depart for the NFL.
2. Alabama (2023: 12-2, SEC Champions, CFP Semifinalist)
QB continuity is increasingly rare at the top of the sport. Alabama is going to bring back Jalen Milroe and he might be the early 2024 Heisman favorite. The 2024 Crimson Tide figure to be even more loaded with five stars than the typical Alabama team, despite the usual departures to the NFL draft. Alabama and Georgia will also play their first regular season matchup in four years in September.
3. Texas (2023: 12-2, Big 12 Champions, CFP Semifinalist)
I really struggled with who to put in this spot- there is a clear drop from the top 2 to everyone else. Ultimately, I went with Texas. While the Longhorns do lose two amazing defensive tackles and two amazing receivers- they are very likely to return QB Quinn Ewers and are behind only Georgia and Alabama in average star rating on the roster. The move to the SEC brings a tough schedule with Georgia, Michigan and Oklahoma all on the docket.
4. Ohio State (2023: 11-2)
The Buckeyes threw Kyle McCord to the curb and are upgrading significantly under center with Will Howard coming over from Kansas State. The big problem here is the loss of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, but I have to make them the BIg Ten favorite given their combination of QB experience and overall recruiting stars.
5. Oregon (2023: 12-2, Pac-12 Runner-Up)
Oregon will lose Heisman finalist Bo Nix but replaces him with presumed starter Dillon Gabriel and QB of the future Dante Moore. The Ducks were quite unlucky to lose both matchups with Washington this year and finished the regular season #1 in my ratings. Their lines figure to be among the best in the sport once again and they are neck and neck with Ohio State for the best roster in the Big Ten.
6. Missouri (2023: 11-2)
Missouri is the only non-traditional power in my top 10 and probably has the lowest recruiting rankings of any team in that group. However, they’ve had a fantastic 2023 season and bring back QB Brady Cook and a future top 5 pick in WR Luther Burden. The schedule is easy, as far as SEC schedules go, with Alabama, Texas A&M and Oklahoma as the main obstacles.
7. Michigan (2023: 14-0, Big Ten Champions, CFP title yet to play)
Michigan is losing a lot this offseason- I think most Wolverines fans would recognize that they’ll take a sizable step back next year. Assuming JJ McCarthy leaves, the QB situation is completely up in the air with a transfer, true freshman Jadyn Davis or someone currently on the roster all options. More concerningly, 6 or 7 starters from their elite defense will depart. They’ll be a good team next year, but likely will start the year in the back half of the top 10.
8. Penn State (2023: 10-3)
The Nittany Lions have a less talented roster than the next few teams listed here, but they do have QB certainty in Drew Allar. They benefit from Michigan falling off the schedule although they must face USC and Washington.
9. Notre Dame (2023: 10-3)
Notre Dame has strung together a few very strong recruiting classes in a row and now has the overall roster talent on the level of the other top 10 teams (Alabama and Georgia excepted). Riley Leonard is transferring in from Duke to start behind center and I expect to see the Irish in the 12 team playoff next year.
10. Tennessee (2023: 9-4)
Tennessee is handing the offense over to former five star Nico Iamaleava. He looked phenomenal in the bowl game and the Volunteers lose very few players of note to the NFL draft this offseason, landing them in the back half of my top 10.
11. Arizona (2023: 10-3)
QB Noah Fifita was a revelation for Arizona this year and he will return. The Wildcats were no fluke and are going to finish the year just outside the top 10 of my ratings, and they’ll return 15 starters or so. The Wildcats are my pick to win the Big 12 in 2024 and reach the playoff.
12. Clemson (2023: 9-4)
Clemson was a lot better than their 9-4 record this year. They’re finishing the year in the teens of my ratings and starting QB Cade Klubnik returns. The season starts with a tough game against Georgia but other than that they could be favored in every game.
13. LSU (2023: 10-3)
Garrett Nussmeier takes over in Baton Rouge after sitting on the bench for two years. Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers depart but LSU might have the best roster of any team outside the top 10.
14. Ole Miss (2023: 11-2)
Many people will have Ole Miss higher than this, but my model never liked the 2023 version of the Rebels that much in the first place. The Rebels have done a lot of good work in the portal but I am concerned about the fact that they replace nearly their entire offensive line.
15. Utah (2023: 8-5)
2023 was a lost season for the Utes with horrible injury luck across the roster. QB Cam Rising is back and if he’s healthy he brings tremendous experience in his 7th year of college football. 9 or 10 starters will return on defense and this will be one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They should be in the mix at the top of the new look Big 12.
16. Oklahoma (2023: 10-3)
Dillon Gabriel has departed for Oregon and heralded youngster Jackson Arnold will take over under center for the Sooners. Unfortunately, the Sooners’ recruiting has backslid a bit in recent years, and the schedule gets much tougher with the move to the SEC.
17. NC State (2023: 9-4)
NC State very quietly put together another 9 win season in 2023. They’re making a massive upgrade at QB with the uber talented Grayson McCall coming over from Coastal Carolina and also should return all five offensive linemen. Clemson and Florida State are not what they once were and that makes an ACC title a lot more attainable for the Wolfpack.
18. SMU (2023: 11-3)
To the surprise of many, I think SMU might be one of the best teams in the ACC in their first year in the league. Preston Stone was the best quarterback in college football that no one discussed this year and they already have more recruiting stars on their roster than many ACC teams.
19. Kansas (2023: 9-4)
Jalon Daniels returns at QB for the Jayhawks. He’s had injury issues each of the last two years, but if healthy he is a top ten QB in the country. RB Devin Neal and most of the offensive line return as well and Kansas will once again have a potent rushing attack.
20. Washington (2023: 14-0, Pac-12 Champions, CFP title yet to play)
Washington will lose all of their top players from the dream 2023 team. Obviously Michael Penix Jr. is the main loss, but there might be 4 first round picks on the current roster who are walking out the door. Former Mississippi State QB Will Rogers will take over behind center but will be working with a completely new offense.
21. Florida State (2023: 13-1, ACC Champions)
Florida State is going to be handing over the keys to the offense to unproven sophomore Brock Glenn. The Seminoles have a solid roster but replacing QB Jordan Travis and two first round talents in Keon Coleman and Jared Verse will be tough.
22. Kansas State (2023: 9-4)
The Wildcats were very unlucky in 2023- they had the numbers of a top 10 team and had a few unlucky bounces, especially against Texas. Unfortunately Will Howard departs for Ohio State but Avery Johnson steps in behind center and will be greeted by the usual strong K-State offensive line.
23. Iowa State (2023: 7-6)
Iowa State had an amazing second half of 2023 and vaulted into my top 25. They return QB Rocco Becht and might return 10 starters on defense as well. They’re a dark horse contender in the wide open new Big 12.
24. Texas A&M (2023: 7-6)
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Texas A&M- they’re the only team in my top 25 undergoing a coaching change. However, even with the transfer portal defections, there’s just too much raw talent on this roster to not put them somewhere in the top 25.
25. USC (2023: 8-5)
It seems like Miller Moss will be taking over at QB for the Trojans in 2024 with Caleb Williams off to the NFL and Malachi Nelson transferring to Boise State. That’s a big question mark as Moss is untested and not that highly regarded for a USC quarterback. There are a lot of recruiting stars on the roster but so far the meat of the roster has not really lived up to those stars.
Also Considered: Louisville, Miami, Memphis, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin, Auburn, UCLA, Boise State, Georgia Tech
College Football Bowl Game Picks 2023
SMU +4 hit easily last week, the Mustangs would have won by three touchdowns if it wasn’t for bad turnover luck. Unfortunately, my Louisville to win the ACC +300 ticket lost, as did my Oregon to win the national title +500 ticket. I think both of them were good value, but ultimately came up short.
Preseason: +4.72 units
Other Futures: -4 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Week 12: -1.01 units
Week 13: +8.82 units
Week 14: +1.79 units
Total: +3.85 units
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (Texas Bowl: Wednesday December 27th 8:00 PM Central)
This is a matchup of two teams who are much different from their records. Oklahoma State won 9 games, but might be the worst 9 win power conference team I’ve ever seen. They were blown out by South Alabama and UCF and needed a miracle comeback to even make the Big 12 title game. Texas A&M, on the other hand, lost a few close games and was a top 20 team according to my numbers all year. The only reason this is not a bigger play is because the Aggies have a significant number of players in the portal, but even with that they have by far the more talented team.
Texas A&M -4.5 -110 (4 units)
Fresno State vs. New Mexico State (New Mexico Bowl: Saturday December 16th 4:45 PM Central)
New Mexico State has been my most profitable team of the season, with my NMSU to make the CUSA title game +1000 future easily my best bet of the season. The Aggies should be bigger favorites here- Fresno State took a significant step back in November. NMSU is being penalized for playing in Conference USA with this line, but the conference was nowhere near as bad as people were projecting it to be in the preseason. The Aggies will be motivated here and I like this pick a lot.
New Mexico State -1 -110 (3 units)
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio (Myrtle Beach Bowl: Saturday December 16th 10 AM Central)
Unfortunately this is a stale line- I bet it a few days ago before star Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke entered the portal. I do still like the Bobcats at the new line of +3.5 but have to report the lines that I actually bet here. Ohio was the second best team in the MAC behind Toledo, and while the dregs of the MAC are really bad, the top teams can play with anyone. Georgia Southern completely came apart down the stretch and questions are beginning to be asked about Clay Helton’s job security in Statesboro.
Ohio -1.5 -110 (2 units)
Miami vs. Rutgers (Pinstripe Bowl: Tuesday December 28th 1:15 PM Central)
Miami’s season got off to a promising start and then came completely unglued after they failed to kneel the ball against Georgia Tech. However, the underlying fundamentals of this Hurricanes team are strong with good line play on both sides of the ball. They are much more talented than a mediocre Rutgers team and the loss of QB Tyler Van Dyke to the portal is probably a good thing. I like the ‘Canes here.
Miami -3.5 -110 (2 units)
Kansas vs. UNLV (Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Tuesday December 26th 8:00 PM Central)
Kansas has been a money team for me the last two years, this is the second year in a row that I’ve bet the over on the Jayhawks’ season wins and both years it has cashed easily. UNLV has been a good story this year led by QB Jayden Maiava and Michigan State transfer WR Ricky White. It’s unclear whether Maiava will even play in this game (he’s rumored to be headed to the portal) and even if he does, the Runnin’ Rebels are much less talented than Kansas. Lance Leipold has built a talented roster out of nothing in Lawrence and they can easily beat decent G5 teams like UNLV.
Kansas -10.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Pre-Bowls 2023
This was the most impactful conference championship weekend in 25 years. Not since UCLA and Kansas State both fell on the last day of the regular season in 1998 have we seen the national championship picture change so dramatically in the first weekend of December.
Interestingly, we’re now headed into a playoff without any of the top 3 teams in my model (and only 1 of the top 6). I’m still quite a bit of an outlier for having Oregon #1, but this year’s Ohio State and Georgia teams are two of the better squads to miss the playoff in a while.
Top 25
Oregon
Ohio State
Georgia
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Penn State
Oklahoma
Missouri
Texas (+2)
Louisville
Washington (+5)
Texas A&M
Arizona (-3)
Clemson
Florida State
Kansas (-3)
Oregon State
Tennessee
SMU
Florida
Iowa State
Miami (+1)
Maryland (-1)
Michigan put the exclamation mark on a great regular season with a win over Iowa. The Wolverines are consensus 2 point favorites against Alabama in the Rose Bowl which is right in line with my fair line. I’ve been lower on Washington than most in the last few weeks, with the Huskies falling from 5th in my ratings in October all the way to 18th last week. Michael Penix Jr. and crew proved me wrong and are now two wins away from their first national title in my lifetime. SMU finishes the regular season as the only G5 team in my top 25 and is likely going to be a preseason sleeper of mine in the ACC next year.
College Football Playoff Preview
This is the 10th year of the College Football Playoff and it is shaping up to be the most interesting selection debate yet. It’s been an unusually chalky year at the top of the sport- this is the first time in several decades that we’ve gotten past Thanksgiving with 4 undefeated major conference teams, and that means that some resumes that would ordinarily make the playoff will be left out this year.
There are a lot of people who have delved into the various scenarios for this weekend’s games and tried to prognosticate what will happen in each of them. I decided to take a slightly different approach and utilized the betting odds to make the playoff to try to derive what the market is implying might happen in various scenarios. Here are some interesting things I found:
Michigan, Georgia, Washington and Florida State are in with a win. Oregon almost surely is as well.
No one will dispute that Michigan and Georgia are in the playoff with wins this weekend. There has been some buzz about the possibility that a 13-0 Florida State could be left out, but I find this quite unlikely. The Seminoles are both -140 to beat Louisville and to make the playoff. If you assume they have no chance with a loss, this implies to me that they’re a lock with a win.
Before going through with this exercise, I wasn’t certain that Oregon was a lock with a win over Washington. However, the Ducks are -355 to beat Washington and -340 to make the playoff, implying around a 97% chance that they make the field with a win on Friday.
Alabama and Texas both need help- Texas moreso.
Each column in the above table can be read as follows:
Win % - Market implied chance of winning this weekend
P(playoff with win) - Market implied chance of making the playoffs given that the team wins this weekend
P(playoff with loss) - Market implied chance of making the playoffs given that the team loses this weekend
P(playoff) - Market implied chance of making the playoff
Two things to note here- Alabama has an 88% chance of making the playoff if they beat Georgia, and Texas has a 42% chance of making the playoff if they beat Oklahoma State.
Texas has one very clear path to the playoff. If they beat Oklahoma State, Georgia beats Alabama and Louisville beats Florida State, the field will clearly be Georgia, Michigan, Texas and the Pac-12 champion. This scenario happens about 25% of the time. All of their other paths to the playoff are murky and involve either getting in over 12-1 Alabama or a Michigan loss.
Alabama is also in with a win and a Florida State loss. A Crimson Tide win and a Florida State win complicates things, as I’ll get into below.
Georgia and Michigan both have a chance with a loss.
Georgia is pretty much a coinflip to make the playoff with a loss this weekend- obviously their case would be greatly helped by a Florida State loss. Michigan is a massive favorite over Iowa, but I estimate they have around a 1 in 3 chance at making it if they lose.
If it comes down to Texas, Alabama and Georgia, the Crimson Tide are in better shape than the Longhorns and Bulldogs.
As I mentioned above, the easiest scenario for Texas is a win, a Georgia win and a Florida State loss. If Texas and Alabama both win, things get much trickier. If Texas, Alabama and Florida State win, there is 1 spot for Texas/Alabama/Georgia. If Texas, Alabama and Louisville win, there are 2 spots for Texas/Alabama/Georgia (all of this assumes Michigan beats Iowa).
In the scenario where there’s 1 spot for Texas/Alabama/Georgia, I estimate there’s about a 60% chance Alabama gets it, a 30% chance Texas gets it and a 10% chance Georgia gets it. If there’s 2 spots for Texas/Alabama/Georgia, I estimate there’s a 90% chance Alabama is in, a 60% chance Texas is in and a 50% chance that Georgia is in.
Ohio State is on life support, but not completely dead.
The best chance for the Buckeyes is for Michigan, Georgia, Louisville and Oklahoma State to win. This would pit the Buckeyes against the Pac-12 loser for the last spot, an argument I think they should win (especially if it’s a 2 loss Oregon). The Buckeyes have around a 3% chance at the field.
All of this analysis is only as good as the betting odds I’m using to make them, but the betting markets are reasonably tight and liquid so I think they form a good foundation for analysis. The markets are a bit higher on Alabama and Georgia’s chances and a bit lower on Texas’ than I would’ve guessed. Regardless, it is shaping up to be the most interesting conference championship weekend we’ve had since Auburn vaulted into the BCS title game in 2013.
College Football Picks Week 14 2023
Week 13 was fantastic- I went 5-1 against the spread with many of my winners (Kansas, BYU, Arizona) covering by multiple touchdowns. I unfortunately marked out a bit on my futures bets- Alabama under 10.5 wins was one miraculous Jalen Milroe pass away from winning.
Preseason: +4.72 units
Other Futures: 0 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Week 12: -1.01 units
Week 13: +8.82 units
Total: +6.06 units
SMU @.Tulane (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
SMU and Tulane both made it through the American unbeaten and neither has lost since September. Unfortunately for SMU, star QB Preston Stone was injured against Navy last week after putting up nearly 300 yards in the first quarter. Stone and the Mustangs have put up some gaudy offensive numbers this year and would surely be road favorites if he was healthy. Backup QB Kevin Jennings looked OK in mop-up duty, enough so that I am comfortable picking SMU here.
SMU +4 -112 (2 units)
As I mentioned in my ratings update this week, Oregon has expanded their lead as the #1 team in my model. I’m much higher on them than the computer consensus, but I would make the Ducks around a 4 point favorite against Georgia or Michigan and a bigger favorite over Texas or Florida State. The tough part of this bet is that it’s not even a given that they make the playoff with a win this weekend- betting markets imply they have around an 85% chance at the playoff with a win. I still think this is good value and should be around +375 or +400.
Oregon to win National Championship +500 (2 units)
Note that I normally would also be playing Louisville +3.5 this week against Florida State, but I bet Louisville to win the ACC +300 two weeks ago.