2024 College Football Preseason Bets- Part 2
This is part 2 of my three part preseason bets series. If you missed part 1, you can find it here. Today I’ll cover the Big 12 and ACC before going over the Group of Five conferences in Part 3.
Big 12
Utah under 9.5 wins +125 (3 units)
There has been a rush to anoint a top team in the Big 12 this season and the consensus has latched onto Utah and Kansas State as the two main picks. The fact of the matter is that I have no clue who the best team in the Big 12 will be and neither do you- none of the conference’s sixteen (!) teams consistently recruit at a top 20 level, and none of them have the sort of structural advantages that Texas and Oklahoma long held over the rest of the league. Utah will be a good team, but I can’t support a win total of 9.5 for a team that doesn’t have a dominant talent advantage over the rest of their league.
Kansas State under 9.5 wins -150 (1 unit)
The same arguments I made in the Utah blurb apply here. The reason I am sizing this bet smaller is that Kansas State has an extremely promising QB in sophomore Avery Johnson. The sample size is small on him- he has less than 200 career snaps- but if he plays to his potential the Wildcats are a top 10 team. However, there are certainly a lot of outcomes where he is mediocre, and the rest of the roster is solid but not spectacular. K-State is the Big 12 team most likely to make a run deep into the playoffs but also might end up going 6-6.
Iowa State to make Big 12 Title Game +450 (1 unit)
I think there’s some good value on Iowa State here. As mentioned above, the top few teams in the Big 12 are pretty indistinguishable to me. Iowa State belongs in that group even if others don’t have them in the mix- they return nearly everyone from last year’s team and figure to be extremely strong on both lines.
Kansas to win the Big 12 +950 (1 unit)
Kansas is one of the highest variance teams in college football. If he’s healthy, Jalon Daniels is a top 5 quarterback in the sport. “If he’s healthy” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, as he has been on and off the field for two years. Kansas could very well end up 5-7, but if Daniels can stay on the field they might be the best team in the conference.
Arizona to win the Big 12 +1100 (1 unit)
Arizona was my most profitable team last year. I backed the Wildcats five times last year and they went 5-0 ATS in those games. HC Jedd Fisch departed for Washington and took some players with him, but exciting QB Noah Fifita and first team all-conference WR Tetairoa McMillan remain. The Wildcats were a legitimate top 15 team last year and I’m surprised I can get them at +1100 to win the Big 12 when they have the best QB/WR tandem in the conference.
Arizona +9.5 -110 @ Utah (2 units)
Arizona +8 -110 @ Kansas State (1 unit)
Iowa State +9 -110 @ Utah (2 units)
Iowa State PK -110 vs. Kansas State (1 unit)
I was able to find lookahead lines for a lot of Big 12 games this season. These four games all feature teams I’m backing this preseason playing teams that I’m fading so it’s a nice way to get a bit more exposure on my preseason opinions.
ACC
Florida State under 9.5 wins -110 (2 units)
Florida State to miss College Football Playoff -180 (2 units)
Florida +11.5 -110 vs. Florida State (2 units)
Florida State is going to take a pretty significant step back from last year’s 13-1 squad. With Jordan Travis departing for the NFL, I was really surprised to see them go after QB DJ Uiagalelei in the portal. DJU is a fine quarterback but I can’t imagine him being the starter for one of the top five teams in the nation. Talent departs up and down the roster with other studs like Keon Colemand and Jared Verse also off to the NFL. This is a hard schedule that features five or six potential top 25 teams and I think the ‘Noles are a significant step behind ACC favorites Clemson this year. For the second year in a row, I’m also throwing in a preseason bet on the Florida/Florida State game, I have that line in the low single digits.
Virginia over 4.5 wins +100 (2 units)
Virginia has always been a confusing team to me- they are in a great recruiting state and have plenty of money. There’s really not many structural differences between them and say, Tennessee. Despite this, the Cavaliers have spent exactly two weeks in the top 20 of the polls since 2007. I think that HC Tony Elliott is looking to harness these resources to build for the long term in Charlottesville and he should turn a corner in year three. QB Anthony Colandrea showed flashes of brilliance in his freshman season but also made some horrible mistakes. He will iron out those freshman mistakes and the talent elsewhere on this roster is no longer among the worst in the Power Five.
Clemson to win the ACC +350 (1 unit)
Clemson +4 -110 @ Florida State (1 unit)
Much has been made about HC Dabo Swinney’s archaic views on roster construction- Clemson was the only team outside the service academies to not add anyone in the portal this offseason. However, despite all the negative press, this is by far the most talented team in the ACC as the Tigers continue to sign top 10 classes on the regular. Only Miami and Florida State are even in the same ballpark as Clemson from a talent perspective. Even in their recent “down” years this has still been a top 15 team in the sport. I’ll also gladly back the best team in the ACC as a four point dog against Florida State.