2024 College Football Preseason Bets- Part 3
This is part 3 of my three part college football preseason bets series. I covered the four major conferences in the first two parts and today I’ll be tackling the Group of Five. You can find part 1 of the series here and part 2 here.
Sun Belt
Arkansas State over 5.5 wins -170 (4 units)
Arkansas State to win Sun Belt West +600 (2 units)
Arkansas State has gone through the wilderness recently with four consecutive losing seasons. However, the roots of a strong program are in place- the Red Wolves rattled off nine consecutive winning seasons from 2011 to 2019 and have one of the highest recent recruiting averages of any G5 program. However, the real reason to be bullish on this team is QB Jaylen Raynor. Raynor was Sun Belt Freshman of the Year as a true freshman last year and Arkansas State did very well to keep him in Jonesboro- there was a long line of major conference suitors waiting to grab him from the transfer portal. This team has always had the talent and facilities to be one of the best in their tier of the sport and I think this will be a breakout year.
American
Army under 6 wins -120 (4 units)
Army has joined the American for the 2024 season. They’ve been an independent for their entire history except for a brief seven year stint in CUSA twenty years ago. Army normally has the luxury of padding their schedule with a few easy wins (they’ve played multiple FCS times quite a bit in recent years) but those breaks in the schedule are now gone with a full conference slate. There are a few other structural disadvantages facing the Black Knights- the academies cannot add players via the transfer portal and changes to chop block rules have forced them to re-invent their offense. All of this adds up to a less talented team running an unfamiliar scheme against a tougher schedule- a recipe for a rebuilding season.
Rice over 6.5 wins -140 (1 unit)
Rice is coming off of back to back bowl seasons for the first time in a decade. Last year’s team was their best in recent years, knocking off local rival Houston as a double digit underdog. While their two big name players depart in QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey, nearly every other player of significance is back. I expect this to be one of the best defensive teams in the AAC and they look significantly better than last year’s six win outfit.
Mountain West
New Mexico over 2 wins -130 (2 units)
New Mexico is one of the toughest jobs in FBS- they have no resources, no obvious recruiting territory and no history of success. However, long time readers of my blog will know that these are exactly the sorts of teams that I like betting on. This line implies that the Lobos are a bottom three team in the sport and I just don’t see that. They went 4-8 last year including a road win over a good Fresno State team, and while this year’s outfit is worse, I don’t think that they’re so bad that a 1-11 season should be the base case.
Fresno State under 8 wins +130 (2 units)
Fresno State was a deceptive 9-4 last year, sneaking past a bad Eastern Washington team in 2OT and winning close games left and right. I had them around the middle of the pack in the Mountain West despite the fact that they were flirting around the edges of the AP poll for much of the season. Since I think they had so much smoke and mirrors last year, I’m just lower on this year’s team than the consensus. They’re a solid team that should go to a bowl game but they’re not a conference title contender.
Nevada over 2.5 wins -110 (1 unit)
Like New Mexico, this is another really bad team whose win total has still been set too low. Nevada fired Ken Wilson after a disastrous two year tenure but made a really smart hire in former Montana State HC Jeff Choate. This year’s roster is clearly better than the awful rosters of the Wilson era and features a handful of former power conference players. Nevada will be at the bottom of the Mountain West but the difference between them and the rest of the league is small enough that they can find three wins.
Conference USA
Sam Houston State to make CUSA Title Game +550 (1 unit)
Sam Houston State made their FBS debut last year and got off to an 0-8 start that featured a parade of close losses. They finished 3-1 and were definitely better than their 3-9 overall record. Now in their second FBS season, they finally have a full roster designed for the 85 man scholarship limit. Liberty is the runaway favorite to win CUSA but the league is a total jumble after that. I think Sam Houston is in a virtual tie for second best in the league with several other teams which makes this a pretty attractive price.