2024 Preseason Top 25 and Bracketology
Week 1 is just days away, so it’s time to reveal my model’s preseason top 25. Starting this year I will also include my 12 team playoff bracketology every week. I’d like to build a college football bracketology model but I haven’t gotten around to it yet. In the meantime I’m just using my model’s rankings and making my own guesses about how it will turn into a 12 team bracket.
Top 25
Georgia (+2)
Ohio State
Oregon (-2)
LSU (+2)
Alabama (+3)
Texas A&M (+7)
Penn State
Texas (+3)
Oklahoma
Clemson (+5)
Notre Dame (-6)
Missouri (-2)
Michigan (-9)
Iowa State (+9)
Miami (FL) (+9)
Florida (+6)
Virginia Tech (+9)
Arizona (+4)
Ole Miss (+11)
Louisville (-8)
Florida State (-4)
SMU (-1)
Kentucky (+15)
Auburn (+12)
Iowa (+25)
Georgia opens the season as my preseason #1 for the third year running. The rest of my top 3 agrees with the consensus but after that I start to disagree, as I have LSU and Texas A&M in the spots where the AP poll has Texas and Ole Miss. The SEC will probably get 4 or 5 teams into the playoff, and I think that LSU and A&M have a great chance to take those spots.
In the Big Ten, I have Penn State a bit higher than Michigan, but both are quite some distance behind Ohio State and Oregon. Iowa sneaks in as my fifth ranked Big Ten team, both the AP Poll and I agree that they’re the 25th team.
I have Iowa State as my top rated team in a very crowded Big 12 but plenty of Big 12 teams are within shouting distance. Clemson is my ACC favorite as discussed in my season preview posts.
Bracketology
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Clemson
4 Iowa State
The top four teams are my four projected major conference champions. I’ve given the Big 12 nod to Iowa State for now but it really could be anybody.
5 Oregon vs. 12 Memphis
6 LSU vs. 11 Miami (FL)
7 Alabama vs. 10 Texas A&M
8 Penn State vs. 9 Notre Dame
I diverged a bit from just going down the list of my ratings here to account for schedules. I’ll put Texas A&M in despite a killer schedule. I think they’re a small favorite over Notre Dame in week 1 and let’s say they go 9-3 to grab one of the last playoff spots. I decided to give an at-large bid to the ACC, Miami avoids Clemson this year and maybe they lose the ACC title game to Clemson and get an at-large. Finally, I went with Memphis for my 12 seed- they’re in a dead heat with Boise State for top G5 team in my ratings and I think if both teams are 11-1 they will get the nod due to a stronger conference schedule.