College Football Picks Week 4 2024

Last week was pretty bad. East Carolina +3.5 was my only pick that covered. It’s a good thing I got that line early, because it closed at East Carolina PK and they lost by 2. I was really surprised to see Vanderbilt lay a total egg against Georgia State. Time to forget about week 3 and move on to week 4. 

I’ve also added some new futures bets this week that are at the bottom of this post.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Toledo @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

Toledo pulled off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, going on the road and beating Mississippi State 41-17 as a double digit underdog. I’m going to continue to ride the Toledo train this week- the Rockets have the best roster in the MAC according to my model’s talent ranking. Western Kentucky is a decent team but I think they’re overrated after beating up on a really poor MTSU team last week. I am shocked Toledo is an underdog here as they are a dark horse playoff contender.

Toledo +1.5 -110 (3 units)

Fresno State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 7:30 PM Central)

This pick should not be a surprise given that I bet on New Mexico and against Fresno State in the preseason. New Mexico has been a pleasant surprise despite their 0-3 start- they are 3-0 ATS and should be able to beat their win total of 2. New Mexico put up 448 yards on Auburn last week and I like their chances to hang with Fresno State.

New Mexico +17 -110 (2 units)

South Alabama @ Appalachian State (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)

South Alabama got off to a disappointing start with two losses to G5 teams, but righted the ship last week with an astounding 87 points against FCS Northwestern State. The Jaguars still have one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt. I am fading App State for the second week in a row after they were decimated by Clemson.

South Alabama +7 -110 (2 units)

Houston @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

These two teams both figure to be near the bottom of the Big 12. Houston got the doors blown off in week 1 against UNLV (loyal readers will unfortunately remember that game), but has been very impressive since, covering their last two by double digits. Cincinnati might be the most poorly managed program in the Power Five and I think they’re headed for last place in the conference.

Houston +5.5 -110 (2 units)

Georgia Tech @ Louisville (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I do not understand this line. Louisville is a solid team (they’re in my model’s top 25 with two blowout wins over bad teams) but Georgia Tech is as well. Some of the air was taken out of the Georgia Tech balloon after their loss to Syracuse, but I think that was more about Kyle McCord’s epic performance than Georgia Tech’s issues. The Yellow Jackets are a clear bowl team and should keep this close.

Georgia Tech +10.5 -110 (1 unit)

NC State @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

NC State has been one of the most disappointing teams of the year. They barely beat FCS Western Carolina and then struggled with an awful Louisiana Tech team last week. QB Grayson McCall was injured against Louisiana Tech and it is unclear if he will play in this matchup. Clemson is still the most talented team in the ACC and should dominate NC State.

Clemson -14.5 -110 (1 unit)

Rutgers @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I think people got a bit too low on Virginia Tech after their loss to Vanderbilt. There’s a reason this team was a sleeper pick to win the ACC in the preseason and they showed that in a dominating road win at Old Dominion last week. They are far more talented than Rutgers (who is 2-0, but has played no one) and I expect them to win easily here.

Virginia Tech -5.5 -110 (1 unit)

Alabama to make SEC Title Game +270 (2 units)

Most people would agree that Georgia, Alabama and Texas are the three best teams in the SEC. My model has the three teams within just a few points of each other, as do most other models. Alabama’s schedule is relatively easy by the standards of the SEC- they avoid Texas, host Georgia, and avoid my #4 and #5 SEC teams in Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I really don’t get this line, I think Alabama might have better odds of making the SEC Title game than Georgia and they’re priced way lower.

Tulane to win the AAC +250 (1 unit)

Tulane is 1-2 but has acquitted themselves well in close losses to good teams in Kansas State and Oklahoma. Those non-conference losses don’t hurt the Green Wave in the conference standings, and I think they’re dead even with Memphis for the title of best team in the league. Tulane should make the AAC title game- they get to host both Memphis and USF and every other conference game is against a team outside my top 100- and if they get there, they very well can win the title game.

Indiana to make the Playoff +3000 (0.5 units)

Indiana to make the Playoff? Have I lost my mind? Hear me out on this one- the Hoosiers have been the biggest surprise of the season so far, they’re 25th in my ratings and are in the 20s in most other computer ratings as well. They have to travel to Ohio State, but I actually have them favored in every other game on the schedule as they avoid Oregon, Penn State and USC. A 10-2 Big Ten team is very likely to make the Playoff and I think this is a great long shot bet.