College Football Bowl Game Picks 2023
SMU +4 hit easily last week, the Mustangs would have won by three touchdowns if it wasn’t for bad turnover luck. Unfortunately, my Louisville to win the ACC +300 ticket lost, as did my Oregon to win the national title +500 ticket. I think both of them were good value, but ultimately came up short.
Preseason: +4.72 units
Other Futures: -4 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Week 12: -1.01 units
Week 13: +8.82 units
Week 14: +1.79 units
Total: +3.85 units
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (Texas Bowl: Wednesday December 27th 8:00 PM Central)
This is a matchup of two teams who are much different from their records. Oklahoma State won 9 games, but might be the worst 9 win power conference team I’ve ever seen. They were blown out by South Alabama and UCF and needed a miracle comeback to even make the Big 12 title game. Texas A&M, on the other hand, lost a few close games and was a top 20 team according to my numbers all year. The only reason this is not a bigger play is because the Aggies have a significant number of players in the portal, but even with that they have by far the more talented team.
Texas A&M -4.5 -110 (4 units)
Fresno State vs. New Mexico State (New Mexico Bowl: Saturday December 16th 4:45 PM Central)
New Mexico State has been my most profitable team of the season, with my NMSU to make the CUSA title game +1000 future easily my best bet of the season. The Aggies should be bigger favorites here- Fresno State took a significant step back in November. NMSU is being penalized for playing in Conference USA with this line, but the conference was nowhere near as bad as people were projecting it to be in the preseason. The Aggies will be motivated here and I like this pick a lot.
New Mexico State -1 -110 (3 units)
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio (Myrtle Beach Bowl: Saturday December 16th 10 AM Central)
Unfortunately this is a stale line- I bet it a few days ago before star Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke entered the portal. I do still like the Bobcats at the new line of +3.5 but have to report the lines that I actually bet here. Ohio was the second best team in the MAC behind Toledo, and while the dregs of the MAC are really bad, the top teams can play with anyone. Georgia Southern completely came apart down the stretch and questions are beginning to be asked about Clay Helton’s job security in Statesboro.
Ohio -1.5 -110 (2 units)
Miami vs. Rutgers (Pinstripe Bowl: Tuesday December 28th 1:15 PM Central)
Miami’s season got off to a promising start and then came completely unglued after they failed to kneel the ball against Georgia Tech. However, the underlying fundamentals of this Hurricanes team are strong with good line play on both sides of the ball. They are much more talented than a mediocre Rutgers team and the loss of QB Tyler Van Dyke to the portal is probably a good thing. I like the ‘Canes here.
Miami -3.5 -110 (2 units)
Kansas vs. UNLV (Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Tuesday December 26th 8:00 PM Central)
Kansas has been a money team for me the last two years, this is the second year in a row that I’ve bet the over on the Jayhawks’ season wins and both years it has cashed easily. UNLV has been a good story this year led by QB Jayden Maiava and Michigan State transfer WR Ricky White. It’s unclear whether Maiava will even play in this game (he’s rumored to be headed to the portal) and even if he does, the Runnin’ Rebels are much less talented than Kansas. Lance Leipold has built a talented roster out of nothing in Lawrence and they can easily beat decent G5 teams like UNLV.
Kansas -10.5 -110 (1 unit)