Way-Too-Early 2024 College Football Top 25
The 2023 college football season will come to a close tomorrow night when Michigan and Washington will face off for the national title. That means it’s time for my annual preview of the 2024 season. I’ve made some educated guesses about NFL draft declarations and transfer portal decisions here but there are still some potentially impactful decisions (Cameron Ward, Quinn Ewers etc.) still to be made that could shake up this list quite a bit.
Projected 12 Team Playoff
9 of my projected top 10 teams hail from the new look Big Ten or the new look SEC, so this projected field is heavy on those conferences. Interestingly, it does give my projected ACC and Big 12 champions the 3 and 4 seeds. I’ve just put teams in the playoff based on their preseason ranking with no real adjustment made for their expected strength of schedule.
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Arizona
4 Clemson
5 Alabama vs. 12 Memphis
6 Texas vs. 11 Notre Dame
7 Oregon vs. 10 Michigan
8 Missouri vs. 9 Penn State
Projected Top 25
This top 25 is just my personal thoughts- I don’t yet have the roster data required to run my model for the 2024 season. The list is meant to be a guess as to what my model’s 2024 preseason top 25 will look like- it is meant to be a predictor of how good teams will be in 2024, not how good their resumes will be at the end of the season.
1. Georgia (2023: 13-1, SEC East Champions)
Georgia looks to be the clear preseason #1 for 2024. QB Carson Beck returns, and the Bulldogs might have the best offensive line and the best defensive line in the sport next year. The main concern is at the skill positions where both TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey are likely to depart for the NFL.
2. Alabama (2023: 12-2, SEC Champions, CFP Semifinalist)
QB continuity is increasingly rare at the top of the sport. Alabama is going to bring back Jalen Milroe and he might be the early 2024 Heisman favorite. The 2024 Crimson Tide figure to be even more loaded with five stars than the typical Alabama team, despite the usual departures to the NFL draft. Alabama and Georgia will also play their first regular season matchup in four years in September.
3. Texas (2023: 12-2, Big 12 Champions, CFP Semifinalist)
I really struggled with who to put in this spot- there is a clear drop from the top 2 to everyone else. Ultimately, I went with Texas. While the Longhorns do lose two amazing defensive tackles and two amazing receivers- they are very likely to return QB Quinn Ewers and are behind only Georgia and Alabama in average star rating on the roster. The move to the SEC brings a tough schedule with Georgia, Michigan and Oklahoma all on the docket.
4. Ohio State (2023: 11-2)
The Buckeyes threw Kyle McCord to the curb and are upgrading significantly under center with Will Howard coming over from Kansas State. The big problem here is the loss of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, but I have to make them the BIg Ten favorite given their combination of QB experience and overall recruiting stars.
5. Oregon (2023: 12-2, Pac-12 Runner-Up)
Oregon will lose Heisman finalist Bo Nix but replaces him with presumed starter Dillon Gabriel and QB of the future Dante Moore. The Ducks were quite unlucky to lose both matchups with Washington this year and finished the regular season #1 in my ratings. Their lines figure to be among the best in the sport once again and they are neck and neck with Ohio State for the best roster in the Big Ten.
6. Missouri (2023: 11-2)
Missouri is the only non-traditional power in my top 10 and probably has the lowest recruiting rankings of any team in that group. However, they’ve had a fantastic 2023 season and bring back QB Brady Cook and a future top 5 pick in WR Luther Burden. The schedule is easy, as far as SEC schedules go, with Alabama, Texas A&M and Oklahoma as the main obstacles.
7. Michigan (2023: 14-0, Big Ten Champions, CFP title yet to play)
Michigan is losing a lot this offseason- I think most Wolverines fans would recognize that they’ll take a sizable step back next year. Assuming JJ McCarthy leaves, the QB situation is completely up in the air with a transfer, true freshman Jadyn Davis or someone currently on the roster all options. More concerningly, 6 or 7 starters from their elite defense will depart. They’ll be a good team next year, but likely will start the year in the back half of the top 10.
8. Penn State (2023: 10-3)
The Nittany Lions have a less talented roster than the next few teams listed here, but they do have QB certainty in Drew Allar. They benefit from Michigan falling off the schedule although they must face USC and Washington.
9. Notre Dame (2023: 10-3)
Notre Dame has strung together a few very strong recruiting classes in a row and now has the overall roster talent on the level of the other top 10 teams (Alabama and Georgia excepted). Riley Leonard is transferring in from Duke to start behind center and I expect to see the Irish in the 12 team playoff next year.
10. Tennessee (2023: 9-4)
Tennessee is handing the offense over to former five star Nico Iamaleava. He looked phenomenal in the bowl game and the Volunteers lose very few players of note to the NFL draft this offseason, landing them in the back half of my top 10.
11. Arizona (2023: 10-3)
QB Noah Fifita was a revelation for Arizona this year and he will return. The Wildcats were no fluke and are going to finish the year just outside the top 10 of my ratings, and they’ll return 15 starters or so. The Wildcats are my pick to win the Big 12 in 2024 and reach the playoff.
12. Clemson (2023: 9-4)
Clemson was a lot better than their 9-4 record this year. They’re finishing the year in the teens of my ratings and starting QB Cade Klubnik returns. The season starts with a tough game against Georgia but other than that they could be favored in every game.
13. LSU (2023: 10-3)
Garrett Nussmeier takes over in Baton Rouge after sitting on the bench for two years. Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers depart but LSU might have the best roster of any team outside the top 10.
14. Ole Miss (2023: 11-2)
Many people will have Ole Miss higher than this, but my model never liked the 2023 version of the Rebels that much in the first place. The Rebels have done a lot of good work in the portal but I am concerned about the fact that they replace nearly their entire offensive line.
15. Utah (2023: 8-5)
2023 was a lost season for the Utes with horrible injury luck across the roster. QB Cam Rising is back and if he’s healthy he brings tremendous experience in his 7th year of college football. 9 or 10 starters will return on defense and this will be one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They should be in the mix at the top of the new look Big 12.
16. Oklahoma (2023: 10-3)
Dillon Gabriel has departed for Oregon and heralded youngster Jackson Arnold will take over under center for the Sooners. Unfortunately, the Sooners’ recruiting has backslid a bit in recent years, and the schedule gets much tougher with the move to the SEC.
17. NC State (2023: 9-4)
NC State very quietly put together another 9 win season in 2023. They’re making a massive upgrade at QB with the uber talented Grayson McCall coming over from Coastal Carolina and also should return all five offensive linemen. Clemson and Florida State are not what they once were and that makes an ACC title a lot more attainable for the Wolfpack.
18. SMU (2023: 11-3)
To the surprise of many, I think SMU might be one of the best teams in the ACC in their first year in the league. Preston Stone was the best quarterback in college football that no one discussed this year and they already have more recruiting stars on their roster than many ACC teams.
19. Kansas (2023: 9-4)
Jalon Daniels returns at QB for the Jayhawks. He’s had injury issues each of the last two years, but if healthy he is a top ten QB in the country. RB Devin Neal and most of the offensive line return as well and Kansas will once again have a potent rushing attack.
20. Washington (2023: 14-0, Pac-12 Champions, CFP title yet to play)
Washington will lose all of their top players from the dream 2023 team. Obviously Michael Penix Jr. is the main loss, but there might be 4 first round picks on the current roster who are walking out the door. Former Mississippi State QB Will Rogers will take over behind center but will be working with a completely new offense.
21. Florida State (2023: 13-1, ACC Champions)
Florida State is going to be handing over the keys to the offense to unproven sophomore Brock Glenn. The Seminoles have a solid roster but replacing QB Jordan Travis and two first round talents in Keon Coleman and Jared Verse will be tough.
22. Kansas State (2023: 9-4)
The Wildcats were very unlucky in 2023- they had the numbers of a top 10 team and had a few unlucky bounces, especially against Texas. Unfortunately Will Howard departs for Ohio State but Avery Johnson steps in behind center and will be greeted by the usual strong K-State offensive line.
23. Iowa State (2023: 7-6)
Iowa State had an amazing second half of 2023 and vaulted into my top 25. They return QB Rocco Becht and might return 10 starters on defense as well. They’re a dark horse contender in the wide open new Big 12.
24. Texas A&M (2023: 7-6)
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Texas A&M- they’re the only team in my top 25 undergoing a coaching change. However, even with the transfer portal defections, there’s just too much raw talent on this roster to not put them somewhere in the top 25.
25. USC (2023: 8-5)
It seems like Miller Moss will be taking over at QB for the Trojans in 2024 with Caleb Williams off to the NFL and Malachi Nelson transferring to Boise State. That’s a big question mark as Moss is untested and not that highly regarded for a USC quarterback. There are a lot of recruiting stars on the roster but so far the meat of the roster has not really lived up to those stars.
Also Considered: Louisville, Miami, Memphis, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin, Auburn, UCLA, Boise State, Georgia Tech