College Football Picks Week 2 2024

I’ve gotten one thing right so far this season- selling Florida State. The FSU/Boston College game is in the 4th quarter at time of writing but I will preemptively give myself credit for winning Boston College +17.5. It is hard for me to remember a team that started the year in the top 10 that has face planted this hard, this fast. Even 2007 Michigan turned out to have a decent year after they lost to App State.

Week 1: -0.38 units

Baylor @ Utah (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

One of my favorite bets in the preseason was Utah under 9.5 wins. I also am a bit bullish on Baylor- the Bears have a much better roster than last year’s disastrous record would indicate. Baylor should also have improved QB play with Toledo transfer DeQuan Finn manning the offense. I was high on Baylor and low on Utah in the preseason and that didn’t change after week 1.

Baylor +15.5 -112 (2 units)

Sam Houston State @ UCF (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)

I like Sam Houston this year- I had a preseason flyer on them to make the CUSA Championship game at +550. This looks quite good after they blew out Rice last week as an 11 point underdog. I’ll stick on the Sam Houston train this week, especially as they play a UCF team that got surprisingly shaky QB play from KJ Jefferson in week 1 against New Hampsihre.

Sam Houston State +23 -112 (2 units)

Texas Tech @ Washington State (Saturday, 9 PM Central)

Texas Tech scraped by FCS Abilene Christian last week, and they really could have lost if not for some awful playcalling down the stretch by ACU. Despite being in conference limbo in the two team Pac-12, Washington State was able to hold onto a lot of their key contributors from last year’s squad. I viewed these teams as about equal in the preseason and TTU looked awful last week, so a line of 1.5 seems a bit small.

Washington State -1.5 -105 (1 unit)

UTSA @ Texas State (Saturday, 3 PM Central)

These two teams are both popular preseason sleeper picks to take the G5 berth in the 12 team playoff. My model is a bit lower than the consensus on Texas State though- they still don’t have the years of recruiting history that I’d like to see from a roster ready to compete at that level. Add in a very shaky week 1 performance against FCS Lamar and I like UTSA here.

UTSA +3 -115 (1 unit)

UAB @ Louisiana Monroe (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

I’m sad about this line- I saw it open at UAB -8.5 and was ready to pounce on that for several units. Unfortunately, by the time I was able to bet the line had moved all the way to 13. (This wasn’t my only big miss of Sunday- I also loved Maryland -7 and it was -10.5 by the time I got around to betting). I’ll still make a small bet on UAB here- I’m bullish on Bryan Vincent in the long term at ULM, but his current roster might be the worst in FBS.

UAB -13 -108 (1 unit)

Boise State @ Oregon (Saturday, 9 PM Central)

Boise State played a thriller in week 1, with possible first round draft pick Ashton Jeanty rushing for six touchdowns in a back and forth win over Georgia Southern. My model was very impressed with the Broncos’ rushing attack and has them on the doorstep of the top 25. Oregon, meanwhile, looked shockingly bad against FCS Idaho and fell considerably in my model. 18 is too big a line for this game, I think Boise can hang in there a bit against the Ducks.

Boise State +18 -108 (1 unit)