College Football Picks Week 6 2024
Week 5 was tremendous. I won 4 of 5 my bets, and most of them in convincing fashion. Arizona won outright as a 13.5 point underdog and Kentucky won outright as a 16.5 point underdog. Northern Illinois really should have won outright as well- they allowed only 171 yards but allowed 24 points thanks to 4 turnovers.
I also gained a lot of EV in my preseason bets- Ole Miss under, Indiana over and Fresno State under all took big jumps this week.
In addition to my bets below, Clemson plays Florida State this week. The consensus line is Clemson -14, but if you were following my picks in the preseason, you have Clemson in this game at +4. My bets against Florida State have been the gift that keeps on giving.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: 5.28 units
Preseason Bets: 2.64 units
Total: -2.22 units
Tennessee @ Arkansas (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Arkansas has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this year. They outplayed a very good Texas A&M team last week but lost thanks to a -3 turnover margin. Their other loss this season was a crazy game against Oklahoma State where they racked up 648 yards of offense but lost the flukiest game of the season. Tennessee is a very good team, but my model does not have them in the top 5 like the polls do. Arkansas is a fringe top 25 team so I think this spread is at least a touchdown too big.
Arkansas +14 -110 (4 units)
Navy @ Air Force (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Navy has looked amazing so far this year, most notably in a 56-44 win over a hyped up Memphis team. QB Blake Horvath is putting up video game numbers for an option QB- he is 30/44 for 657 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT on the season. Air Force can be a difficult place to play given the altitude, and these two triple option teams are familiar with each other, but Air Force is in a rebuilding year and is clearly the worst of the three service academies. I think Navy should roll by multiple scores.
Navy -7 -110 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ Marshall (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Another week, another bet against Appalachian State. Their game last week was unfortunately canceled by Hurricane Helene, but when they have played this year, the Mountaineers have been very underwhelming. Marshall has one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt and I don’t think the market has caught on to just how much weaker App State is than they have been the last few years.
Marshall -1 -110 (2 units)
Auburn @ Georgia (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Auburn is 2-3 and questions are being asked about Hugh Freeze’s job security. However, they are really unlucky to be 2-3, as they outgained Oklahoma by nearly 200 yards last week and only lost thanks to an atrocious pick six by Payton Thorne. Auburn still has a very talented roster and the underlying fundamentals are much better than the record would indicate. Loyal readers will remember I picked Auburn in this game last year as a multi touchdown underdog and they nearly won outright, and I like them again this year.
Auburn +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas State @ Troy (Thursday, 6 PM Central)
Texas State has been my bogey team these last few years, I believe I am 0-4 ATS picking against them since GJ Kinne took over in San Marcos. I’m ready to get hurt again, as I like Troy and the points in this matchup. Troy is rebuilding under first year HC Gerard Parker, but is still a respectable outfit. This spread should be in the single digits, not nearly two touchdowns.
Troy +13.5 -110 (1 unit)