College Football Ratings- Week 6 2024
This Saturday was one of those special days of college football that we’ll remember for a while. I have been a big supporter of Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia for a long time- loyal readers will remember my big bet on New Mexico State last year when he was the Aggies’ quarterback. That was my best bet of 2023 by a mile, and I was very happy to see him lead Vanderbilt to the upset this Saturday.
Bracketology
I’ve added projected end of season records to my bracketology this week. The goal of this is to provide a realistic simulation of the rest of the season according to my model. For example, even though Ohio State will be favored in every remaining game, they’re only small favorites against Oregon and Penn State and are a good bit more likely to go 12-1 than 13-0.
1 Ohio State (12-1)
2 Texas (11-2)
3 Miami (12-1)
4 Iowa State (11-2)
I have a preseason ticket on Iowa State to make the Big 12 title game at +450. It’s now +135, a good bit above every other Big 12 team. I’ve been projecting the Cyclones as my Big 12 champion in every bracketology so far this season and still view them as the best team in the league.
12 Boise State (12-1) @ 5 Oregon (11-2)
11 Texas A&M (9-3) @ 6 Alabama (10-3)
10 Georgia (9-3) @ 7 Penn State (10-2)
9 Notre Dame (10-2) @ 8 Clemson (11-2)
Alabama would probably have to go 8-4 to miss the playoff. In this projection I assume they go 10-2 and then lose to Texas in the SEC title game, but a 9-3 ‘Bama with wins at LSU and vs. Georgia would also be quite likely to get in.
Texas A&M was the biggest beneficiary of this weekend’s chaos. Since Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia all have one loss, the Aggies are now +130 to make the SEC title game and I find it hard to believe that the SEC title game loser gets left out.
I think that a 10-2 Notre Dame team is pretty likely to make it. I think that any 10-2 power conference team will make the field, with the possible exception of weaker Big 12/ACC resumes. It’s hard to find two more losses on the Irish’s schedule.
In the Hunt:
Ole Miss (9-3)
SMU (10-2)
Indiana (9-3)
Kansas State (10-3)
Tennessee (8-4)
LSU (8-4)
I think that SMU could present an interesting case to the committee. If the Mustangs go 10-2 and miss the ACC title game (which is the most likely outcome in my model), their only top 30 win would be at Louisville. They’re likely to stack up a decent number of wins against 7-5 type teams (TCU, Duke, Boston College, Cal etc.), which the committee traditionally hasn’t valued very much.
I got Indiana to make the playoff at +3000 a few weeks ago. I also had the Hoosiers over 5.5 wins in the preseason. I was bullish on Indiana this year but I will admit that I did not expect to cash that ticket in the first week in October.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Texas
Notre Dame
Miami
Penn State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Clemson
LSU
Iowa State
SMU
Tennessee
USC
Louisville
Kansas State
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington
Auburn
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky