College Football Picks Week 7 2024
Week 6 was my best week of the season thus far. My two biggest bets both covered by multiple touchdowns, Arkansas won outright as a 14 point underdog and Navy demolished Air Force. My futures bets also had a great week as I got important wins from both Florida and Arkansas State.
Unfortunately I have a smaller slate of bets this week, no picks look as appetizing to me as the 3 and 4 unit plays I’ve had the last two weeks. It’s important to be able to pick your spots during the season and be comfortable having weeks where you have fewer bets every now and again.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Preseason Bets: +4.46 units
Total: +7.70 units
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State (Wednesday, 6:30 PM Central)
This year’s New Mexico State is much worse than the 2023 version that made it to the CUSA title game. Still, they have shown the faintest signs of life this year, giving Liberty a tough test in a one possession loss. Jacksonville State is just inside the top 100 in my ratings and should not be a three touchdown favorite against a team with any sort of pulse.
New Mexico State +20.5 -110 (2 units)
Missouri @ UMass (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Missouri has made some strange scheduling decisions in recent years including a road trip to Wyoming. This one takes the cake though- no power conference team in their right mind would schedule a trip to UMass. Much like the New Mexico State/Jacksonville State game, this game is a mismatch but the spread is several points too high. UMass is no longer one of the bottom three teams in FBS and Missouri is out of my top 25 after a disastrous performance against Texas A&M. I like a small play on UMass here.
UMass +28.5 -110 (1 unit)
SMU to make the ACC Title Game +190 (2 units)
I’m adding a futures bet on SMU as well this week. The ACC title race will come down to Miami, Clemson and SMU- all three are undefeated in conference play and strangely, none of them play each other. SMU has the easiest conference schedule of the three, which is both a blessing and a curse. It means that they stand a good chance at running the table (I give them a 30% chance of winning out) but it also means they will lose a strength of schedule tiebreaker against Miami and Clemson. Regardless, Miami or Clemson will probably slip up somewhere and SMU has rocketed up to 14th in my ratings, so I think there’s some decent value here.
Oklahoma to make the Playoff +1500 (0.5 units)
Oklahoma is probably the only team other than Georgia that is more likely than not to make the playoff at 9-3. The Sooners have a brutal schedule, as their most likely path to 9-3 would have wins over Alabama, LSU and Tulane and quality losses to Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
The most likely scenario is that they get destroyed by Texas this weekend and nothing happens with this bet. However, I think that if they win, they’ll be more likely than not to make the playoff and that makes this a nice longshot flier.
San Jose State to make the playoff +25000 (0.1 units)
If you’re going to take a long shot to make the playoff, I like SJSU at 250/1. They have only one loss so far this season, on the road against a good Washington State team. They are currently 16/1 to win the Mountain West which is pretty fair. If they win the Mountain West, they’ll be in the mix to make the playoff- they’d need a team with a few losses to win the American, and also some stumbles from James Madison and Liberty. I think that they have around a one in six shot of making the playoff as the Mountain West champs which means there’s some value at 250/1.