College Football Bracketology- Week 7 2024
I’ve been publishing weekly bracketology updates for the whole season, but starting this week I will be devoting a whole weekly post to previewing the playoff field. Over the last few weeks I’ve been building a model to simulate the selection process for the 12 team playoff. Much like college basketball bracketology, the goal of this is to predict what the committee will do, not what I think they should do. Each week I’ll break down the resume of all of the main contenders and also give my projections as to the most likely field.
Tier 1: Definitely In
These are the 4 top ranked teams in the AP poll, and for good reason. Texas, Oregon and Penn State would have to go 3-3 down the stretch to be in danger of missing the playoff. Penn State is in marginally more danger than the other two, given that they’re the only one of the group outside of the top 5 in my ratings and they have some tricky road trips on the schedule.
Ohio State remains in a good position despite their loss this week. Their trip to State College in early November is likely to determine who plays Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If the Buckeyes lose two more regular season games, they’d probably miss the field, but that’s unlikely for what’s still the #1 team in my power ratings.
Tier 2: Probably In
One general rule of thumb to know this year is that 10-2 Big Ten and SEC teams are definitely going to make the field, while 9-3 Big Ten and SEC teams probably won’t. 9-3 Georgia would have the best chance of any potential 9-3 team, thanks to their win over Clemson. Assuming they win their other games (Florida, UMass, Georgia Tech), the Dawgs will be feeling good if they go 2-1 against Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee and shaky if they go 1-2.
The winner of this week’s Alabama/Tennessee game will move into the “definitely in” tier. The loser will be a bit less than 50/50 to make the field. I’d rather be the Tide than the Vols, both because they’re a better team and because their big November road trip (LSU) is easier than Tennessee’s (Georgia).
Miami and Clemson are both rooting for the other to keep winning. I think that a potential 11-2 loser of a Miami/Clemson ACC title game is likely to be right on the cutline for the last spot in the field. The best win either team has is probably Miami’s win over Virginia Tech, which is not saying much at this point in the season.
Notre Dame will easily be in the field at 11-1 and is a huge question mark at 10-2. Their schedule is riddled with games that are trickier than you’d think, such as road trips to Georgia Tech and USC.
Iowa State has been my projected Big 12 champion all season and they continue to impress. They’ll be at least touchdown favorites in their next four games. I think that the Big 12 has enough depth that a 10-2 Iowa State team has a shot at the playoff, but they’d be behind teams like Notre Dame and Clemson in the pecking order.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
LSU and Texas A&M continue to see their odds tick up. They are the two SEC teams other than Texas who are yet to lose a conference game, as they took their losses on opening weekend in non conference action. One possible interesting scenario to monitor- it’s possible that either team ends up 10-2 and 7-1 in SEC play. If they then lose the conference title game to finish 10-3, it’ll be curious to see if the committee punishes them for that.
Ole Miss has by far the best odds of any 2 loss team. There’s a few reasons for this- first, they’re good (they’re ninth in my ratings, even after the LSU loss), second, their remaining schedule is easy (other than Georgia, they’ll be touchdown favorites in every game). I give them around a 25% chance of winning out and some chance of making it in at 9-3.
Indiana continues to boost their playoff odds. They’re undefeated and have one game they’re huge underdogs in (at Ohio State) and several they’re mild favorites in (Nebraska, Michigan, Washington). If they can take care of business and win all of those they’ll be in the field at 11-1.
BYU and Kansas State look like the clear second and third contenders in the Big 12 behind Iowa State. BYU is still outside the top 25 of my ratings but they already have wins over Kansas State and SMU and a light November schedule. Kansas State saw their odds tick up a good bit after a road win at Colorado.
SMU might be the most interesting team in the whole playoff picture. They project to be 7 to 14 point favorites in all 6 remaining games, and clearly will make the field at 11-1. They also could feasibly not make the ACC title game in that scenario despite being undefeated in conference play as they play neither Miami nor Clemson.
Tier 4: Longshots
We have a whole bevy of Big 12 teams in this tier. None of them have compelling at-large cases, but all of them could factor into the crowded Big 12 title picture. If I had to pick one team to emerge from the pack, it would probably be Colorado, given their clear upside and the fact that they don’t have to play any of the top 3 teams in the league.
Louisville still controls their playoff destiny as they face both Miami and Clemson in the coming weeks, and thus control their own path to the ACC title game. Pitt is undefeated but has done so in the most confounding way possible and has three games left they’ll be significant underdogs in.
Missouri and Oklahoma both have longshot chances at the playoff. Missouri has the weakest schedule in the SEC and thus can only afford one more loss to have a chance at the playoff. Oklahoma has such a brutal schedule that if they can somehow find their way to 9-3, they will probably make it in.
Group of Five
Boise State remains the clear leader here. The Broncos have to travel to UNLV in two weeks and likely will have to do so again for the conference title game. Every bracket projection has the Broncos as the 12 seed, but they’re already 15th in the polls and if they win out I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hosting a first round game. If UNLV knocks off Boise in the Mountain West title game they’ll have a great shot at the playoff.
Elsewhere, Tulane, Army and Navy lead an interesting American race. An undefeated Army or Navy would surely leapfrog Boise State, as both teams still get to play Notre Dame. Tulane is an interesting contender as well, they are the only top 30 team in the G5 outside of Boise State.
One outlier possibility to keep an eye on- I wouldn’t sleep on the chance that 2 G5 teams could get into the field. Suppose, for example, that a 10-3 West Virginia or Texas Tech team wins the Big 12 while we have both a 12-1 Boise State and an 11-1 Navy team. If something wacky happens in the Big 12 there’s a real chance their conference champion finishes behind 2 G5 teams.
This Week’s Projection
1 Texas
2 Oregon
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
5 Penn State vs. 12 Boise State
6 Georgia vs. 11 Indiana
7 Ohio State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Alabama
This projection is still mostly an exercise in guesswork. I decided to spice things up and not just pick the most likely scenario everywhere- for example I have decided to put Indiana in the field over say, Clemson. At this point in the season, I do find it more useful to look at things from a probabilistic perspective as I did at the top of the post as opposed to focusing on the single most likely scenario, but it’s still a fun exercise.