College Football Picks Week 8 2024
Last week was a bit unfortunate as I bet on two big underdogs who got blown out. The good news is that I had plenty of success elsewhere- my huge preseason bets against Ole Miss took a big step forward when they lost to LSU, and my preseason bets against Utah look phenomenal after their loss to Arizona State.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Preseason Bets: +5.27 units
Total: +5.51 units
Tulsa @ Temple (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
A few weeks ago we were talking about Temple as one of the worst teams in FBS. Since then they beat Utah State and nearly beat UConn, and are now outside of my bottom 10. Instead, it’s Tulsa that looks like one of the worst teams in FBS. The Golden Hurricane might just have the worst defense in FBS and have been smoked by Army and North Texas in back to back weeks. Tulsa is one of the least talented teams in FBS and I love fading them here.
Temple -1.5 -110 (3 units)
Hawai’i @ Washington State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
When Timmy Chang took over at Hawai’i he inherited possibly the worst situation in FBS. Now the Rainbow Warriors are showing some signs of life- last week’s loss to league power Boise State was much closer than the 28-7 score indicates and Chang’s squad hung with UCLA earlier in the season. Hawai’i is better than their 1-4 record and Washington State is worse than their 5-1 record.
Hawai’i +19.5 -110 (3 units)
Auburn @ Missouri (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Auburn is the best 2-4 team college football has seen in a few years. They’ve had awful turnover luck- they would have beaten Oklahoma if Payton Thorne did not throw a heinous interception and they outplayed both Arkansas and Cal in those losses. I’ve been down on Missouri all season and they were absolutely exposed in a blowout loss to Texas A&M- they have no running game and no offense to speak of outside of Luther Burden.
Auburn +7.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State @ Nevada (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
Nevada upset Oregon State last week- this was their third win of the season and it meant that I cashed my Nevada over 2.5 wins ticket from the preseason. I also have a Fresno State under 8 wins ticket that is looking quite good as the Bulldogs are now 3-3. I’ll continue with what’s been working here- Fresno QB Mikey Keene has regressed this year while Nevada has a more talented roster than you’d think with several P5 transfers.
Nevada +3 -110 (1 unit)
Missouri under 9.5 wins -175 (5 units)
I’ve been a seller of Missouri all season but now is the time to take my stand. The Tigers need to lose two more games for this bet to hit. They’ll be huge underdogs at Alabama, and favorites of around a touchdown or less against Auburn, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Arkansas. This line makes absolutely no sense to me, especially when you consider that Missouri is +340 to make the playoff and they have very little chance of making the playoff at 9-3. I absolutely love this bet.
BYU to make the Playoff +450 (1 unit)
BYU is +500 to win the Big 12 and +450 to make the playoff. I think that +500 to win the Big 12 is pretty fair, but the latter line implies they have almost no chance to get an at-large bid. I don’t agree with that- a BYU team that goes 12-0 and then loses the Big 12 title game will obviously make the field and a BYU team that goes 11-1 and then loses the Big 12 title game could get in. They already have good wins over fellow playoff contenders Kansas State and SMU, which is more than most potential at-large candidates can say at this point in the season. I think this is worth a flier.