College Football Bracketology- Week 8 2024

A lot of people have been talking about this college football season as a chaotic one. While it’s true that there are no dominating teams this year, week 8 did not bring chaos. In fact, ranked teams went a perfect 14-0 against unranked teams. This is bad news for a lot of teams on the fringes of the playoff hunt- teams like Ole Miss and SMU are running out of time.

Tier 1: Definitely In

Georgia joins this tier after their win at Texas. UGA would probably have to lose to both Ole Miss and Tennessee to miss the playoff, although the upcoming Cocktail Party against Florida is looking a bit trickier than expected as well. Texas stays strong at 88% to make the playoff despite the loss- they would have to lose two more games to be in any danger of missing the playoffs and only face one more top 20 opponent (a trip to Texas A&M).

Tier 2: Probably In

Miami and Tennessee were the week’s two big winners in this group. Miami cleared their biggest remaining hurdle with a road win over Louisville and is now 50/50 to go 12-0. Tennessee, meanwhile, still has to go to Georgia but other than that does not leave the state for the rest of the season. As long as they take care of business against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, they should be in the field.

LSU hosts Texas A&M this weekend. The winner will be the only team undefeated in SEC conference play and will likely have around a 75% chance of making the playoff. The loser will likely need to win out to make the field.

Tier 3: Other Contenders

The model says that Alabama is exactly a coin flip to make the playoff, which feels about right. With the playoff bubble looking stronger, I think that a 9-3 Alabama team probably will not make the field. They’d have a chance, but I’d rather not be a three loss Crimson Tide team. The good news for them is that outside of a trip to Baton Rouge, they’ll be double digit favorites in every other game.

I’ve been high on Indiana’s playoff chances all season, and they played their best game of the season in a 56-7 demolition of Nebraska. However, Indiana could be hurt by the strong bubble- if other teams in this tier keep winning, a 10-2 Hoosiers squad probably would not make the cut. Keep in mind that Indiana still has to travel to Ohio State. QB Kurtis Rourke is out for multiple weeks which doesn’t help matters.

The Big 12 is going to need their trio of Iowa State, BYU and Kansas State to keep winning if they want multiple teams in the field. My model thinks Kansas State is the best team of the three, but they also are the only one with a loss. Unless chaos erupts in the SEC, it’ll be hard for a two-loss Big 12 team to get into the field. My personal guess is that BYU slips up down the stretch and Iowa State and Kansas State play for the conference title and both sneak into the field.

Tier 4: Longshots

SMU and Missouri are the only teams here with real at-large chances. Both teams won this week but saw their playoff odds hold steady as teams in front of them all won as well.

Everyone else in this tier is either an oddball case (Washington State) or a team looking to get an automatic bid by winning their conference. If anyone in this group is going to make a run, I’d put my money on a Colorado team that has improved significantly and should be favored in every remaining game.

Group of Five

The biggest development in the G5 has been Army and Navy’s continued winning streaks. Both teams are not just winning- they are covering nearly every week and rocketing up my ratings. Both teams still have to play Notre Dame, but a 12-1 Army or Navy with a loss to Notre Dame could still get in the playoff, especially if Boise State slips up.

Boise State travels to UNLV on Friday night in what looks to be the G5 game of the year. Ashton Jeanty and Boise have snagged all the headlines this year, but UNLV might have their best team in school history and has their own star in WR Ricky White. Every team in this section other than Boise is hoping for the Broncos to slip up.

This Week’s Projection

1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Miami
4 Iowa State

5 Oregon vs. 12 Boise State
6 Texas vs. 11 Kansas State
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 LSU

Once again I’ve decided to have some fun with my projection as opposed to just slotting in the most likely team into each spot. I’m assuming here that Georgia wins out and wins the SEC, while Kansas State sneaks into the field over teams like Alabama and Indiana after losing the Big 12 title game.