College Football Picks Week 9 2024
I had another solid week last week. It would’ve been nice to get Nevada at +3.5 instead of +3, as I pushed when I could’ve won if I bet the opening line instead. Temple and Auburn both covered easily, and Auburn nearly won outright.
Unfortunately, loyal readers may remember that I bet Oklahoma +6 against Ole Miss back in the preseason. The Sooners and Rebels face off this weekend, and the line is now Ole Miss -20.5.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Preseason Bets: +6.57 units
Total: +8.36 units
UTSA @ Tulsa (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I faded Tulsa last week against Temple and I’m going to do it again here. The Golden Hurricane made a disastrous hire when they brought in an awful retread in Kevin Wilson last year. It was made worse by the fact that Tulsa alum GJ Kinne (and now hugely successful Texas State coach) was available. They’ve been a total disaster this year as we saw last week- I’m going to continue fading them until further notice.
UTSA -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Texas @ Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)
Vanderbilt pulled off the upset of the year against Alabama a few weeks ago and now looks to do the same thing against Texas. I’ve been low on the Longhorns all season- they are “only” fifth in my ratings right now when they are in the top three in most other computer models. Vanderbilt has played to the level of their competition all year, looking great against good teams and awful against bad teams. I think they can give Texas a decent game.
Vanderbilt +19.5 -110 (2 units)
Bowling Green @ Toledo (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is one of the best rivalry games in the MAC, as these teams are separated by less than 50 miles along I-75. Bowling Green may be 3-4 but I think they might be the best team in the MAC- they played Texas A&M and Penn State very close. They’re also the only team in the MAC that’s as talented as Toledo. Toledo’s offense has been anemic in recent games and I think this is the game where they lose their grip on the MAC.
Bowling Green +3 -110 (1 unit)
Troy @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Arkansas State was one of my favorite teams in the preseason, but they have been disappointing this season. Luckily for me, they are 4-3, but they have needed smoke and mirrors to get there. Most notably, they were bailed out but the referees in a win over FCS Central Arkansas. Troy has taken a huge step back from the Jon Sumrall era but they still might be more talented than Arkansas State.
Troy +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame to win the National Championship +4000 (0.5 units)
Everyone stopped paying attention to Notre Dame after their loss to Northern Illinois, but the Fighting Irish have been very solid since then. After a dominating win over Georgia Tech last week, they’re up to third in my ratings. I think they’re more likely than not to make the playoff, and if they get there, only Ohio State and Georgia look like clearly superior teams. At 40/1, I like a longshot bet on the Irish.