College Football Picks Week 10 2024
Last week was pretty much a wash for me. I was celebrating when UTSA was up 35-7 on Tulsa at halftime, only for the Roadrunners to execute the collapse of the century to lose 46-45. Outside of that game, Vanderbilt, Bowling Green and Troy all covered, and none of them were ever really in doubt.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Preseason Bets: +4.57 units
Total: +7.00 units
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Syracuse has been worse than their record all season, and the rent finally came due last week in a blowout loss to Pitt. It wasn’t just Kyle McCord’s five interceptions- Syracuse is still one of the least talented rosters in the P4. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, was a preseason sleeper pick for a reason- the bones of an ACC contender are there. Their season went sideways with some early losses in September but they’ve been excellent in recent weeks and they should roll here.
Virginia Tech -2.5 -110 (4 units)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I am 3-0 picking against Appalachian State this season and am going to do so again here. App State is a proud program with a decades long winning tradition, but their roster has fallen into disarray. Old Dominion now looks like the team to beat in the Sun Belt East- they demolished Georgia Southern last week and are headed for the best year in their program history.
Old Dominion +1.5 -110 (3 units)
New Mexico State @ FIU (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
Conference USA has one group of decent teams and one group of bad teams. These are two of the latter- FIU has already lost to FCS Monmouth this year and New Mexico State is a bottom 10 team in FBS. I don’t think there’s a ton of daylight between these two teams as FIU has already lost to some of the dregs of the league, such as UTEP. New Mexico State should be able to keep this close.
New Mexico State +10 -110 (2 units)
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Oklahoma State all season. I wish I had bet against them more- they’ve gone from the top 15 of the AP Poll to 0-5 in Big 12 play in the span of a month. Arizona State has been one of the surprises of the season- they were the consensus pick for last in the Big 12 but are already 2-2 in the league. Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt is doubtful for this game- if he does play, expect this line to move further towards ASU.
Arizona State +1.5 -110 (2 units)
Hawaii @ Fresno State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Hawaii had the worst roster in the sport when Todd Graham left the program in a smoldering crater. They dominated Nevada in a 34-13 win last week and are comfortably out of the bottom 10 in my ratings for the first time in years. Fresno State has been overrated all year as QB Mikey Keene has regressed significantly.
Hawaii +13 -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been betting against Ole Miss all year, and I regret not picking Oklahoma +20.5 last week. This is a really tricky test for them- Arkansas has likely saved HC Sam Pittman’s job with an impressive 5-3 season. They’re a solid mid-tier SEC team and should not be nearly double digit home underdogs against an underwhelming Ole Miss squad.
Arkansas +8 -110 (1 unit)
Clemson to miss the Playoff +155 (2 units)
As I described in last week’s bracketology, the Playoff bubble is looking much stronger than expected. That’s bad news for Clemson- the Tigers will obviously make the playoff if they win the ACC, but I am growing increasingly skeptical of their at-large chances. They’re yet to beat a single team with a winning record and they’d be at the back of the line among 2 loss teams given their weak schedule. I think Clemson is around a coin flip to make the playoff so this presents some good value.
Army to make the Playoff +1500 (1 unit)
Army is currently undefeated and they essentially have two paths to make the playoff. The first path is to win out- this would require beating Notre Dame (they’ll be about 14 point underdogs) as well as winning every other game, including the AAC title game. Overall, I think this has about a 5% chance of happening.
The second path is to lose to Notre Dame, but win every other game. This would put them at 11-1, and they’d need some help. Namely, they’d need Boise State to lose the Mountain West. A 12-1 Boise State would get the G5 bid over an 11-1 Army, but an 11-1 Army would get the G5 bid over any other possible challenger. I give this scenario perhaps a 10% chance of happening.
This line seems pretty mispriced to me- I think it might be +1500 because people do not realize that the Army/Navy game will not be considered in the playoff selection process, as it happens the week after the playoff bracket is revealed. The Navy game will be a tough one, so Army’s chances of going undefeated are a good bit higher if you don’t include that matchup.
SMU over 2.5 wins in November -150 (6 units)
I cannot believe this line. SMU has 4 games in October, and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this bet.
They’re 7.5 point favorites against Pitt this week, and I think they should be closer to 10 point favorites.
They’ll be around 10.5 point favorites against Boston College and Virginia, and I think they should be around 14 point favorites in each game.
They finish the season with Cal, where they’ll be around 9 point favorites.
This line is not consistent with their remaining schedule, and I’m bullish on SMU anyways. I love this line.
Kansas State over 2.5 wins in November -175 (3 units)
Like SMU, Kansas State has 4 games in November and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this. They’ll be a pick’em against Iowa State but will be double digit favorites in all of their other games. Kansas State is now my highest rated team in the Big 12 and this is another clear bet.