College Football Bracketology- Week 9 2024
After a chaotic start to October, chalk has ruled the day in the last two weeks. LSU was the only playoff contender to lose last weekend, and they lost to fellow playoff contender Texas A&M.
As a result, the bar to make the playoff keeps going up. Earlier in the month, it looked like a guarantee that any 10-2 power conference team would make it, and I was even talking about 9-3 SEC teams sneaking into the field.
I now project there to be 14.3 power conference teams with 2 or fewer losses. Since there’s 11 bids for power conference teams, this means that there will be a few 10-2 teams that miss the field. This is bad news for teams that could have weaker 2 loss resumes (Indiana, SMU, Kansas State, Clemson) as well as longshot hopefuls like Washington State.
Tier 1: Definitely In
The one change from last week is that I’ve added Miami to this tier. The Hurricanes demolished Florida State over the weekend and will be double digit favorites in every remaining game. A 12-0 Miami team will make the playoff even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game- but an 11-1 Miami team that loses the ACC title game would be in a lot of danger. However, as Miami continues to clear obstacles one at a time, it looks unlikely they’ll have to worry about that scenario.
For everyone else in this tier, the path to an at-large bid remains simple. 10-2 will almost certainly get the job done, 9-3 almost certainly won’t. There are some rare exceptions (I could see a path for 9-3 Georgia to get in, and I could see a path for 10-2 Penn State to not get in) but it should generally hold true.
Tier 2: Probably In
Texas A&M and Indiana are the week’s biggest winners in this group- both saw their playoff odds rise by about 10% after solid wins. I was a little surprised to not see Texas A&M’s odds a bit higher. However, they have deceptively tricky road trips against South Carolina and Auburn, as well as a rivalry showdown against Texas. I give them only a 60% shot of making through that stretch 2-1 or better.
Alabama is the only team in this tier with multiple losses. I feel increasingly certain that a 9-3 Alabama team is not going to make the field, so their season will likely come down to a road trip to Baton Rouge.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
I think most people will be surprised to see Clemson in this tier. I certainly disagree with the consensus on this one- I bet Clemson to miss the playoff at +155 this week- but I think the math is solid. Suppose Clemson wins the rest of their regular season games and then loses to Miami in the ACC title game- they’d be 11-2 with only 1 or 2 ranked wins. They’d certainly be behind teams like 10-2 Alabama, 10-2 Texas A&M and 10-2 Penn State. Of course, they might just win the ACC and make this a moot point, but I think their at-large odds are growing slim.
This tier includes a trio of Big 12 teams in BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State. I think the best chance to get multiple Big 12 teams into the field is for either BYU or Iowa State to make it to the Big 12 title game undefeated and then lose. I’m hard pressed to imagine a 1 loss Big 12 team missing the field- especially BYU who has an excellent non-conference win at SMU- but the path for a 2 loss Big 12 team to get in is quickly narrowing.
Tier 4: Longshots
This tier is shrinking rapidly. The main reason why is that the Big 12 race has narrowed considerably- earlier in October I still had 8 Big 12 teams on my radar screen, now I only have 5 (and TCU’s path is quite narrow).
In the ACC, Pitt took a nice step forward with their win over Syracuse last week. I still have the Panthers as projected underdogs in three more games, starting with this weekend’s trip to SMU. If they win that game, they’ll move up a tier.
Perhaps I could have included Virginia Tech in this tier- if they win out (they still have to play Clemson, among others), they’re a coin flip to be in the ACC title game.
Group of Five
The big news in the G5 this week was Boise State’s win over UNLV. Boise State is a stone cold lock for the Mountain West title game, and if they win it, they’re in the playoff (so long as Army loses once, which is very likely).
Speaking of Army, I recently added a bet on them to make the playoff at 15/1 odds. If Boise State slips up in the Mountain West title game (which is quite possible- they’ll likely have to travel to UNLV again), the American champion will be next in line for the G5 playoff berth. Army is already 6-0 in American play and is the favorite to win the American at +130.