College Football Ratings- Week 5 2024
Week 5 featured what may end up being the game of the year as Alabama survived a furious rally from Georgia. I’ve been high on Alabama’s national title chances for a while (loyal readers will remember I backed the Tide to make the SEC title game at +270 two weeks ago) but they look like co-SEC front runners with Texas now.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Alabama
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
I’ve had Iowa State projected as my Big 12 champion all season, and other projections are starting to join me now as they are one of two undefeated teams in the conference, along with BYU. The Big 12 race remains wide open as no team has better than +400 odds to win the conference but I’m sticking with the Cyclones for now.
5 Texas vs. 12 Boise State
6 Oregon vs. 11 Notre Dame
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Clemson vs. 9 Georgia
I think that Georgia might be in more danger of missing the playoff than people realize. They have 3 more difficult games (at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee) and then 5 games they will be heavy favorites in. If they go 1-2 in the tough games, they’ll be right on the playoff bubble- I imagine we will get at most one or two 9-3 teams in the playoff this year.
The more I look at their schedule, the more solid I feel about Penn State’s chances of making the playoff. They draw a favorable Big Ten schedule that features 5 more games against the league’s bottom half, leaving only challenges against USC, Ohio State and Washington. Even going 1-2 in those games would probably get them in the field.
Notre Dame was +350 to make the playoff after the Northern Illinois loss and I wish I had scooped that up. They’re all the way back to +115 now and will be double digit favorites in every game until their finale against USC.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Texas
Miami
Notre Dame
Penn State
Clemson
Ole Miss
Louisville
LSU
Iowa State
Tennessee
Texas A&M
USC
Kansas State
Missouri
Washington
SMU
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Kentucky
Indiana
Arkansas
LSU has been off the national radar since their week 1 to USC. The Tigers looked great against a solid South Alabama team this week and is a contender in the SEC race- both Ole Miss and Alabama have to come to Death Valley.
Washington is on no one’s radar but the advanced metrics love them. They dropped 500 yards against Rutgers this weekend but lost thanks to going 1 of 4 on field goals and 2 of 12 on third down. They could majorly impact the Big Ten race with a November schedule that features USC, Penn State and Oregon.
SMU has clawed their way back into the top 25 after a dominating win over Florida State. Their only loss (Week 2 to BYU) looks much better as BYU is still undefeated.They avoid both Miami and Clemson in ACC play and thus have a good shot at the ACC title game.