Women’s Bracketology 12/27/2024
My debut women’s bracketology of the season is here. Despite UCLA’s head to head win over South Carolina, I’ve given the #1 overall seed to South Carolina. The Gamecocks clearly have the better profile with 4 Q1 wins to their name and plenty of opportunities in a loaded SEC.
Elsewhere in the bracket, the story remains consolidation among the top conferences. I have all but three at-large bids going to the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12. The new versions of the Big Ten and SEC both look likely to send double digits teams to the tournament.
Men’s Bracketology 12/23/2024
It is difficult to overstate the level of dominance the SEC has shown so far this season. Not only does the SEC have 13 of its 16 teams in this bracket, but it has two teams each as 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds. Even in the heyday of the old Big East, a conference has never had eight teams as protected seeds.
One disappointing feature of this year’s bracket is that it looks like it will be heavy on power conference teams. Normally you can count on the Mountain West, WCC or A10 to produce a fair number of tournament teams between them. All three leagues look a bit light this year, I project only two at-larges between those leagues right now.
We also look a bit light on mid-major at-large candidates this year. Drake is our best bet- the Bulldogs got a surprising at-large in 2021 and are off to an 11-0 start.
I’ll be updating my men’s bracketology at least weekly through the end of January and start more frequent updates once we get into February.
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 9
ACC: 5
Big East: 2
West Coast: 2
Mountain West: 2
Bracketology 12/2/2024
The first month of the season has been more turbulent than usual. Of the four teams I had as preseason 1 seeds, only Kansas remains on the top line. The others have disappointed to varying degrees- Duke has lost some close games (but will be fine), Houston is 4-3 but has plenty of quality win opportunities remaining, and UConn is an actual bubble team.
One thing that struck me putting together this bracket is how much of the field is filled with SEC and Big 12 teams. There’s two main factors behind this. First, both leagues have expanded from 14 to 16 teams. Second, the ACC and Big East are having awful starts to the season, so there are plenty of bids to go around.
I’ll look to update my seed list again in two weeks or so.
1: Auburn, Kansas, Tennessee, Gonzaga
2: Duke, Alabama, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Iowa State, Florida, Oregon, Purdue
4: Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Pittsburgh
5: Illinois, Wisconsin, Baylor, Texas A&M
6; Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Texas
7: North Carolina, St. John’s, Michigan, Nevada
8: St. Mary’s, Utah State, Texas Tech, UCLA
9: Ohio State, Georgia, BYU, Michigan State
10: Clemson, Ole Miss, Nebraska, West Virginia
11: UC Irvine, New Mexico, (Louisville/Arizona), (Connecticut/San Diego State)
12: Dayton, Liberty, Drake, McNeese
13: Grand Canyon, Lipscomb, Arkansas State, Kent State
14: South Dakota State, Purdue Fort Wayne, Furman, High Point
15: UMass Lowell, Charleston, Columbia, Northern Coloardo
16: Norfolk State, Little Rock, (St. Peter’s/Grambling State), (American/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: LSU, Butler, Maryland, Arkansas
Next Four Out: VCU, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 12: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Big East: 3
West Coast: 2
2024-25 Preseason Bracketology
For a long time I thought that preseason bracketology was a bit of a crapshoot. However, the last two years have changed my mind on that. Consider these stats from recent years:
-In each of the last two years, 15 of the 16 teams I gave top 4 seeds to in the preseason ended up making the tournament. Of my preseason top 16 last year, 12 of them ended up in the actual 16, including all four eventual 1 seeds.
-26 of the 32 teams that I gave top 8 seeds to last preseason ended up making the tournament. The biggest miss was USC, who flamed out with Isaiah Collier and Bronny James.
-Every team that got a top 5 seed in the tournament appeared in my preseason bracket.
If you don’t see your favorite team in this projection, don’t fret- they can still make the tournament. However, the track record for teams getting top seeds after starting far off the preseason radar is quite poor in recent years.
Without further ado, here is my preseason projection for this year. My next update will come in November around the time of the Thanksgiving tournaments.
2024 Bracket Picking Guide
General Bracket Theory
There are a lot of articles out there to help you pick your bracket. Most of them will give you some statistics about past champions and a rule about not picking freshman point guards. I’m aiming to do something a little different and provide a more mathematically sound basis to bracket picking.
It may sound a bit silly, but the first thing you need to figure out when filling in your bracket is what exactly you are trying to accomplish. If you just want to maximize your expected score, the optimal strategy is quite easy- pick only favorites. You’re quite likely to end up above the median bracket with this strategy but quite unlikely to make it to the very top of the leaderboard.
More likely you want to win a pool ranging in size from 5 to 5,000 people. It’s important to note the size of the pool you’re trying to win- the bigger the pool, the more aggressive you need to be. A general rule of thumb I like to follow is that if you’re trying to win a bracket pool of n people, you want to maximize your chances of finishing in the top 1/n brackets. In plain English, if you want to win a 10 person pool, you want to maximize your odds of finishing in the top 1/10 of brackets. Similarly, if you want to win a 5,000 person pool, you want to maximize your odds of finishing in the top 1/5,000 of brackets. Thus, the bigger the pool, the more aggressive you need to be.
The key is to identify which teams are underpicked relative to their true likelihood of winning the tournament and pick them. Just how underpicked of a team you want to go for depends on how aggressive you need to be. If you’re trying to win a 5,000 person pool, you may need to really shoot for the stars, and pick a 1/500 longshot that only 1/5,000 people are picking in their brackets. If you’re trying to win a 5 person pool, you can be a bit more by the book. I generally like to go for an unconventional national champion and then relatively consensus Final Four picks elsewhere. This was my strategy last year and it worked brilliantly as I won my 80 person pool, picking UConn to win it all.
Without further ado, here’s some data on how frequently various teams are being picked (data courtesy of Yahoo!’s bracket challenge) as well as various metrics of how likely each team is to advance to each round.
2024 Data- Overall
Some brief column definitions:
Computer Avg.: The team’s probability of winning the tournament, averaged over the three computer systems shown.
Vig Adjusted Market: The team’s probability of winning the tournament, based on Vegas betting odds (odds courtesy of Circa).
Picked: What % of users are picking the team to win their bracket.
Diff: “Vig Adjusted Market” - “Picked”
Ratio: “Vig Adjusted Market” / “Picked”
The first thing that stands out here is that Connecticut is picked by nearly 1/3 of users, but by most metrics has around a 1/6 chance of winning the tournament. Despite being the most likely to win according to Vegas, there’s no value in the Huskies.
Depending on how big of a pool you’re trying to win, there’s varying degrees of aggression you can take. For a typical pool size of 5-25 brackets, Purdue, Arizona and Tennessee are all reasonable picks. Houston is beloved by the computers but strangely not by the betting markets (this was also the case in 2022). In a 50-100 person pool, Auburn is probably your best bet.
Once your pool size gets into the triple digits, you need to start looking further afield for a champion. BYU and St. Mary’s are decent options, and if you want a real wildcard, maybe take a shot on a New Mexico squad that is a top 30 outfit at most computers and has a favorable first and second round draw.
2024 Data- East Region
Connecticut is picked to make the Final Four by almost 2/3 of users but has only about a 40% chance of making it there. If you’re going to go with an unconventional Final Four pick somewhere, this could be the region to do it. Any of the next three teams- Iowa State, Illinois and Auburn all are underpicked.
2024 Data- South Region
The thing you don’t want to do here is pick Kentucky who is picked in over 20% of brackets but is outside the top 15 in every computer. Going chalk with Houston is a reasonable pick. I am pretty shocked that more people are not picking Duke given their brand, they’re surprisingly underpicked.
2024 Data- Midwest Region
This is probably the least clear region. Creighton could be worth a punt. Gonzaga would be a better pick if they hadn’t drawn an awful first round matchup with McNeese. Purdue and Tennessee are both being picked right in line with their fairs.
2024 Data- West Region
North Carolina is the weakest 1 seed by far, and traditionally picking the worst 1 seed to go down early is a nice strategy. Oddly enough- more people are picking the Tar Heels to make the Final Four than are picking Purdue or Houston. That’s the power of name recognition, I guess.
This is the most wide open region and I couldn’t fault you with picking any of the 2 through 5 seeds to advance, I kind of like a flyer on Alabama who has an easy first round matchup and a talented roster.
All in all, bracket picking is part art and part science. Hopefully after reading this you have a bit of a better idea as to what sorts of risks are worth taking this year and what sorts of risks are not. Best of luck!
Final 2024 Women’s Bracketology
The women’s selection committee tends to be a bit more unpredictable than the men’s, so I’m a lot less confident in these predictions than I am in my men’s predictions. Here are my final predictions for the 2024 women’s field- I’d be pretty happy if I got 66 or more of these teams correct.
1: South Carolina, Iowa, Stanford, UCLA
2: USC, Texas, Ohio State, Connecticut
3: LSU, Notre Dame, NC State, Oregon State
4: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Colorado, Gonzaga
5: Creighton, Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma
6: Baylor, UNLV, Nebraska, West Virginia
7: Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Princeton
8: Ole Miss, Michigan State, Marquette, North Carolina
9: Alabama, Maryland, Florida State, Tennessee
10: Iowa State, Kansas, Penn State, Michigan
11: (Washington State/Miami (FL)), Richmond, (Villanova/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee
12: Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota State, Fairfield
13: Drake, Eastern Washington, Marshall, Rice
14: Jackson State, Portland, Kent State, Chattanooga
15: Norfolk State, Cal Baptist, UC Irvine, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
16: Drexel, Maine, (Sacred Heart/UT-Martin), (Holy Cross/Presbyterian)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Columbia, Arizona, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Auburn, California, Washington
Final 2024 Men’s Bracketology
Selection Sunday is finally upon us. It’s been a tough Sunday for me so far as my Brown Bears dropped the Ivy League final in heartbreaking fashion. I hope things go better for my Michigan State Spartans later tonight- I think MSU is headed to the First Four, but I’d be lying if I said I felt 100% comfortable right now.
My seed list is unchanged from this morning, but my bracket is a bit different as I realized that I put Marquette and UConn in the same region. Alas, these are the perils of putting together a bracket on Saturday after midnight after a full day of watching hoops.
I’m not that confident about the bubble this year- no team outside my top 32 is totally safe and I could reasonably see any of my first 5 teams out in the tournament. I’m in the minority having Mississippi State out of the field but I think they have the worst losses of any of the high major teams on the bubble, most notably the Q4 home loss to Southern.
Best of luck to my fellow bracketologists this year, and once again a hearty thanks to the Bracket Matrix for compiling all of our predictions once again.
(Note- I have marked this bracket final even though the American championship game is still going. In the unlikely event that Temple mounts a massive comeback, I will edit this submission).
1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina
2: Iowa State, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette
3: Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky
4: Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Alabama
5: BYU, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Florida
6: South Carolina, Utah State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
7: Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State, Dayton
8: Clemson, Nebraska, Boise State, Texas
9: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Colorado State, Colorado
10: Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, (TCU/St. John’s), (Michigan State/Texas A&M)
11: Drake, Oregon, NC State, James Madison
12: Grand Canyon, McNeese State, Samford, Duquesne
13: UAB, Vermont, Charleston, Yale
14: Akron, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate
15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Stetson
16: Longwood, St. Peter’s, (Grambling State/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Virginia
Next Four Out: Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/17/2024 AM
The last few days have been the craziest lead-up to Selection Sunday I can remember in my 14 year bracketology career. Oregon, NC State and Temple all stole bids yesterday, bringing us up to a record 4 bid thieves this year (maybe 5, depending on how you categorise New Mexico).
This led to pandemonium on the bubble- I feel a lot less sure about the bubble this year than I do most years. I moved Virginia, Seton Hall and Mississippi State out of my bracket to make room for the 3 bid thieves- I have a feeling that I will be in the minority with Mississippi State not in my final field, but they don’t compare favorably to other 12, 13 and 14 loss major conference teams on the bubble.
I will have my final update this afternoon after the American and Big 10 championship games. Enjoy the last day of conference tournaments!
1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina
2: Iowa State, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette
3: Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky
4: Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Alabama
5: BYU, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Florida
6: South Carolina, Utah State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
7: Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State, Dayton
8: Clemson, Nebraska, Boise State, Texas
9: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Colorado State, Colorado
10: Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, (TCU/St. John’s), (Michigan State/Texas A&M)
11: Drake, Oregon, NC State, James Madison
12: Grand Canyon, McNeese State, Samford, Duquesne
13: UAB, Vermont, Charleston, Yale
14: Akron, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate
15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Stetson
16: Longwood, St. Peter’s, (Grambling State/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Virginia
Next Four Out: Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State
Moving In: UAB, Oregon, NC State, St. Peter’s, Long Beach State, Yale
Moving Out: Virginia, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Fairfield, UC Davis, Princeton
Bracketology 3/16/2024
This is the strongest bubble in recent memory. Bubble teams are winning left and right- the SEC had the biggest winners yesterday as Texas A&M and Mississippi State knocked off Kentucky and Tennessee. When you add in our likely bid thieves- the A-10 already has one and the ACC, Pac-12 and American threaten to have more- it leads to the strongest bubble in my bracketology career.
I’m going to go through the whole seed list with a fine-toothed comb tonight for my final update(s) tomorrow, so expect to see a little movement here or there. 13 more bids will be punched today- buckle up!
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Iowa State
3: Baylor, Creighton, Illinois, Kentucky
4: Kansas, Duke, Auburn, Alabama
5: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah State, Wisconsin
6: St. Mary’s, South Carolina, Gonzaga, San Diego State
7: Florida, Nevada, Dayton, Clemson
8: Washington State, Nebraska, Florida Atlantic, Northwestern
9: Boise State, Texas, Oklahoma, St. John’s
10: Michigan State, Colorado State, Mississippi State, Colorado
11: TCU, (Seton Hall/Texas A&M), Drake, (New Mexico/Virginia)
12: James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon, McNeese State
13: Samford, Vermont, Duquesne, Charleston
14: Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland, Akron
15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Fairfield, UC Davis
16: Stetson, Grambling State, (Longwood/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)
First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Ohio State, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State
Also Considered: Princeton, South Florida
Moving In: Texas A&M, Fairfield, Western Kentucky, Howard, UC Davis
Moving Out: Pittsburgh, Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Norfolk State, UC Irvine
Bracketology 3/15/2024
It was another strong day for bubble teams with Virginia, Colorado, Pitt, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Texas A&M, Providence and Ohio State all winning. This is bad news both for teams that lost yesterday and have no games left (Wake Forest, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State) as well as Indiana State who got passed by New Mexico. Further complicating matters is the chaos in the A-10 where all four top seeds lost, opening up the league as a bid stealer. I have slotted Duquesne in as my second A-10 team and for now they are on the 13 line.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor
3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kentucky, Illinois
4: Kansas, Duke, Alabama, Auburn
5: Utah State, Texas Tech, BYU, South Carolina
6: St. Mary’s, Wisconsin Gonzaga, Washington State
7: Nevada, San Diego State, Northwestern, Dayton
8: Florida, Clemson, Florida Atlantic, Boise State
9: Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, St. John’s
10: Colorado State, Michigan State, TCU, Seton Hall
11: Virginia, Drake, (Colorado/Pittsburgh), (Mississippi State/New Mexico)
12: James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon, McNeese State
13: Samford, Vermont, Duquesne, Charleston
14: UC Irvine, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland
15: Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Akron, South Dakota State
16: Stetson, Norfolk State, (Grambling State/Longwood), (Montana State/Wagner)
First Four Out: Indiana State, Texas A&M, Providence, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State
Also Considered: Princeton, South Florida
Moving In: Duquesne, New Mexico
Moving Out: Wake Forest, Indiana State
Bracketology 3/14/2024
Pretty much every bubble team in action yesterday won. The most notable results were in the Big 12 where Kansas State and Cincinnati both started the day on the fringe of the conversation and picked up nice wins over teams in the field. Both still have work to do, but Kansas State in particular will be close to the field with a win over Iowa State today.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor
3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kentucky, Duke
4: Illinois, Kansas, Alabama, BYU
5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech
6: Nevada, St. Mary’s, Dayton, Gonzaga
7: Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Clemson
8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic
9: Nebraska, Texas, TCU, Seton Hall
10: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Colorado State, Virginia
11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)
12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Charleston
14: UC Irvine, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland
15: Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Akron, Norfolk State
16: Stetson, South Dakota State, (Grambling State/Longwood), (Montana State/Wagner)
First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Villanova, Providence, Ohio State, Princeton
Also Considered: Cincinnati, Memphis, Utah, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida
Moving In: Sam Houston State, Montana State
Moving Out: Louisiana Tech, Montana
Bracketology 3/13/2024
The first major conference bubble teams begin their conference tournaments today, with TCU, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Villanova, Providence and Kansas State all in action. With the exception of TCU, who is still probably avoiding Dayton with a win, all of those other teams face must-wins. Wake Forest would move out of my field with a loss to Notre Dame and every other team on that list is currently outside of my field.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor
3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky
4: Duke, Illinois, Alabama, BYU
5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech
6: Nevada, St. Mary’s, Dayton, Clemson
7: Gonzaga, Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern
8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Texas
9: Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Seton Hall
10: Michigan State, Colorado State, TCU, Virginia
11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)
12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Charleston
14: UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Colgate
15: Oakland, Quinnipiac, Akron, Montana
16: Norfolk State, Stetson, (South Dakota State/Grambling State), (Longwood/Wagner)
First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Villanova
Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Princeton, Kansas State
Also Considered: Memphis, Utah, Syracuse, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida, Butler, Oregon
Moving In: Wagner
Moving Out: Merrimack
Bracketology 3/12/2024
The biggest news of Monday was James Madison locking up their bid by winning the Sun Belt tournament. Despite a 31-3 record, I think James Madison would’ve been on the outside looking in with a loss to Arkansas State, but I’ll happy to see the Dukes in the tournament.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor
3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky
4: Duke, Illinois, Alabama, BYU
5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech
6: Gonzaga, Nevada, Dayton, Clemson
7: Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, St. Mary’s
8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Texas
9: Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Seton Hall
10: Michigan State, Colorado State, TCU, Virginia
11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)
12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Colgate
15: Oakland, Quinnipiac, Akron, Montana
16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (Stetson/South Dakota State), (Grambling State/Longwood)
First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Villanova
Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Princeton, Kansas State
Also Considered: Memphis, Utah, Syracuse, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida, Butler, Oregon
Bracketology 3/11/2024
Nearly every team on the seed list played over the weekend and changes abound up and down the bracket. At the top, North Carolina won on the road at Duke and Tennessee lost to Kentucky, leading to the Heels taking over as the last 1 seed. On the bubble, New Mexico, Villanova, Iowa, Mississippi State and Providence all lost, opening the door for some other teams. I have very reluctantly moved Wake Forest and Pittsburgh in as my last two teams in, but I don’t feel great about it. They are likely to match up in the ACC quarterfinals and that looks like a must-win game for both.
Bracketology 3/9/2024
Today is the biggest bubble day of the year- nearly every team along the cut line will play today. Maybe the biggest opportunity is for Villanova, who hosts Creighton- the Wildcats have an opportunity for a huge Q1-A win, but would be staring down a 15-loss at-large case with a loss- something the committee heavily frowns on.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee
2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky
5: Auburn, BYU, Dayton, Wisconsin
6: San Diego State, South Carolina, Florida, Washington State
7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Boise State
8: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska
9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas
10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia
11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State
12: (New Mexico/Drake), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14: Charleston, High Point, Akron, Louisiana Tech
15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland
16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)
First Four Out: Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida
Next Four Out: Utah, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, UNLV
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bracketology 3/8/2024
Utah lost on the road to Oregon State last night which might be it for their at-large chances. The Utes looked to be on a path to a protected seed at New Year’s but have done nothing of note since then. Elsewhere in the Pac-12, Colorado won an important game at Oregon and looks more likely than not to make the field now.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee
2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky
5: San Diego State, Auburn, BYU, Dayton
6: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida, Washington State
7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech
8: Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Boise State
9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas
10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia
11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State
12: (New Mexico/Drake), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14: Charleston, High Point, Akron, Louisiana Tech
15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland
16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)
First Four Out: Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida
Next Four Out: Utah, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, UNLV
Moving In: Drake
Moving Out: Utah
Bracketology 3/7/2024
Iowa State continues to build an impressive resume, and got another Q1-A win last night by beating BYU at home. The Cyclones look increasingly firm on the 2 line. As you might remember, the last time they got a 2 seed was in 2001, when they lost to 15 seed Hampton in one of the greatest tournament games of all time.
On the bubble, Michigan State and Seton Hall look increasingly safe after home wins over Northwestern and Villanova. Utah is the only bubble team in action tonight, most bubble teams just have one regular season game remaining on Saturday.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee
2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky
5: San Diego State, Auburn, BYU, Washington State
6: Dayton, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida
7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech
8: Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Boise State
9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas
10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia
11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State
12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Akron
15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland
16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)
First Four Out: Drake, Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh
Next Four Out: South Florida, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Oregon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bracketology 3/6/2024
Wake Forest looked to be on their way to the tournament after they knocked off Duke at home but they’re 0-3 since and lost at home to Georgia Tech last night. They have a lot of work to do to make the field now, starting with a home game against Clemson this weekend.
We had a lot of movement on the 4 line with Illinois, Alabama and San Diego State all losing last night. I’ve bumped Kentucky back up to the final protected seed this morning.
1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee
2: Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State
3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky
5: San Diego State, BYU, Auburn, Washington State
6: South Carolina, Dayton, Wisconsin, Florida
7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech
8: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Gonzaga, Nebraska
9: Boise State, Colorado State, TCU, Texas
10: Mississippi State, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State
11: Villanova, Seton Hall, (St. John’s/Colorado), Indiana State
12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Akron
15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland
16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)
First Four Out: Drake, Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh
Next Four Out: South Florida, Memphis, Wake Forest, Richmond
Also Considered: Princeton, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Grand Canyon, Oregon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Moving In: Stetson
Moving Out: Eastern Kentucky
Women’s Bracketology 3/4/2024
I was very surprised when the committee put Virginia Tech as their last 1 seed in the top 16 reveal on Thursday. Don’t get me wrong- the Hokies have had a good season. I would’ve thought that UCLA or Texas would’ve gotten that spot. It doesn’t matter now because Virginia Tech is 0-2 since the reveal and falls all the way to a 3 seed in this update.
1: South Carolina, Stanford, Ohio State, UCLA
2: Iowa, Texas, USC, LSU
3: Virginia Tech, Connecticut, NC State, Indiana
4: Notre Dame, Oregon State, Colorado, Gonzaga
5: Oklahoma, Utah, Creighton, Kansas State
6: Baylor, Syracuse, Louisville, UNLV
7: West Virginia, Michigan State, Nebraska, Duke
8: Alabama, Marquette, Princeton, Ole Miss
9: North Carolina, Iowa State, Tennessee, Washington State
10: Kansas, Florida State, Penn State, Mississippi State
11: Maryland, (Vanderbilt/Columbia), Richmond, (Villanova/Michigan)
12: Middle Tennessee, Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota State
13: Fairfield, Drake, Toledo, Stony Brook
14: Eastern Washington, Marshall, North Texas, Jackson State
15: Chattanooga, Norfolk State, California Baptist, Lamar
16: Maine, Hawai’i, (Sacred Heart/Boston University), (High Point/UT-Martin)
First Four Out: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Auburn, Middle Tennessee
Next Four Out: Arizona, Green Bay, California, Washington
Men’s Bracketology 3/4/2024
Memphis was left for dead a few weeks ago but is making a charge back towards the field. They need to win at FAU on Sunday to have a chance, but if they can pull that off they’ll go into the AAC tournament right on the bubble.
1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee
2: Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State
3: Kansas, Creighton, Baylor, Duke
4: Illinois, Alabama, San Diego State, Clemson
5: Kentucky, BYU, Auburn, Washington State
6: South Carolina, Dayton, Wisconsin, Utah State
7: St. Mary’s, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
8: Northwestern, Florida, Boise State, Gonzaga
9: Nebraska, Texas, Colorado State, TCU
10: Mississippi State, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State
11: Villanova, Seton Hall, Indiana State, (St. John’s/Colorado)
12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland
16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Eastern Kentucky)
First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Providence, Iowa
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, South Florida, Memphis, Richmond
Also Considered: Princeton, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Grand Canyon, Oregon, McNeese State
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None