Men’s Bracketology 2/4/2025
The weekend gave us an enormous amount of turnover at the top of the bracket. Since my last update, Florida, Iowa State (2x), Kansas, Houston, Marquette, Kentucky and Michigan State have all lost.
The biggest winner in all of this is Texas A&M. The Aggies beat Texas Tech and Purdue in back to back games in December and those wins have aged brilliantly. Combined with some solid work in SEC play, Buzz Williams’ squad has a chance for their best seed in school history. I’ve moved A&M up to a 2 seed in this update, their highest spot of the season.
The biggest bubble riser recently is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were nearly off the radar after a 6 game losing streak, but picked up back to back wins against Illinois and Oregon to move back into the field.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Tennessee
2: Purdue, Houston, Texas A&M. Florida
3: Marquette, Iowa State, Kentucky, Kansas
4: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Missouri, Texas Tech
5: Oregon, Memphis, Arizona, Ole Miss
6: Michigan, St. John’s, Illinois, Maryland
7: Mississippi State, Louisville, UCLA, St. Mary’s
8: Connecticut, Creighton, Clemson, Oklahoma
9: Utah State, Baylor, Texas, New Mexico
10: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Ohio State, San Diego State
11: Nebraska, (Vanderbilt/BYU), Drake, (Georgia/Wake Forest)
12: UC Irvine, VCU, Arkansas State, Liberty
13: McNeese, Yale, Grand Canyon, Akron
14: Samford, High Point, UNC Wilmington, Lipscomb
15: Northern Colorado, South Dakota State, Cleveland State, Marist
16: Norfolk State, Central Connecticut, (Southern/Bryant), (American/Morehead State)
First Four Out: Arizona State, UCF, SMU, USC
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Indiana, North Carolina, Arkansas
Also Considered: Xavier, VCU, Iowa, Cincinnati, Stanford, Boise State, Santa Clara, LSU
Moving In: Nebraska, BYU, Wake Forest, UNC Wilmington, Morehead State, American, South Dakota State
Moving Out: UCF, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Charleston, Little Rock, Colgate, North Dakota State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/1/2025
Oregon remains one of the hardest teams for me to seed. The Ducks have an incredible 8 Q1 wins- second in the country to Auburn. They also have looked incredibly mediocre in Big 10 play and now have predictive metrics in the 30s. The committee has been kinder than I would’ve expected to these sorts of teams in the past (2022 Providence is a good example), so I have given them some benefit of the doubt and kept them on the 4 line.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Iowa State
2: Florida, Purdue, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Houston, Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas A&M
4: Kansas, Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Oregon
5: Ole Miss, Louisville, Memphis, St. John’s
6: Missouri, Arizona, Texas Tech, Michigan
7: Illinois, Utah State, UCLA, Clemson
8: Maryland, Creighton, Vanderbilt, St. Mary’s
9: Baylor, Gonzaga, Georgia, Pittsburgh
10: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Ohio State
11: Texas, (UCF/San Diego State), (New Mexico/Arizona State), Drake
12: UC Irvine, VCU, McNeese, Liberty
13: Samford, Arkansas State, Yale, Akron
14: Grand Canyon, Lipscomb, Charleston, North Dakota State
15: High Point, Cleveland State, Northern Colorado, Marist
16: Central Connecticut, Norfolk State, (Southern/Little Rock), (Bryant/Colgate)
First Four Out: BYU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Indiana
Next Four Out: SMU, North Carolina, North Texas, Xavier
Also Considered: Stanford, Northwestern, Arkansas, Boise State, LSU, Cincinnati, USC, Penn State
Moving In: Yale
Moving Out: Princeton
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 9
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2
Women’s Bracketology 1/30/2025
It’s been a month since I updated my women’s bracketology, so an update was long overdue. In the women’s tournament, there are three important cutoffs to track:
-Who gets the final 1 seed
-Who gets the final 4 seeds (as these teams get to host the first two rounds)
-Who gets the last bubble spots
On the 1 seed front, South Carolina and UCLA are firmly entrenched on the top line. I opted to give the last two spots to Texas and UConn, although USC and Notre Dame deserve hefty consideration. Like last year, UConn has great predictive metrics but the weak Big East is going to put a lid on their seed.
On the hosting front, I gave Oklahoma and NC State the last spots. It seems likely that the Big Ten, SEC and ACC will each have 4-5 teams host.
On the bubble front, things are a bit weird. I have never seen such a clear bubble as this before- the first 40 teams in my seed list (so the 1 through 10 seeds) are very clearly in the tournament, and then there is a tremendous dropoff from that.
One key difference between the men’s and women’s tournament is that the gap between elite teams and bubble teams is much higher in the women’s game. This leads to a lot of power conference teams with good predictive metrics and mediocre records.
Men’s Bracketology 1/30/2025
The biggest result of the week was Kentucky’s road win at Tennessee. It was Kentucky’s 5th Q1A win of the season and it vaulted them up to the 2 line, taking Tennessee’s spot.
Elsewhere, things are getting dire for North Carolina. The Tar Heels have dropped 3 of 4 with their only win in OT over an awful Boston College team. If they lose both matchups with Duke, they will enter Selection Sunday without a marquee win and a bunch of wins over mediocre ACC teams. They probably need to beat Duke at some point to make the field.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Iowa State
2: Florida, Purdue, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Houston, Tennessee, Michigan State, Oregon
4: Texas A&M, Kansas, Mississippi State, Wisconsin
5: Ole Miss, Louisville, Memphis, St. John’s
6: Missouri, Illinois, Arizona, Texas Tech
7: Michigan, Utah State, Clemson, Maryland
8: Creighton, Vanderbilt, UCLA, St. Mary’s
9: Baylor, Gonzaga, Georgia, Pittsburgh
10: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Texas
11: UCF, (San Diego State/Ohio State), (New Mexico/Arizona State), Drake
12: UC Irvine, VCU, McNeese, Liberty
13: Samford, Arkansas State, Grand Canyon, Lipscomb
14: Charleston, Akron, Princeton, North Dakota State
15: High Point, Cleveland State, Northern Colorado, Marist
16: Central Connecticut, Norfolk State, (Southern/Little Rock), (Bryant/Colgate)
First Four Out: BYU, Wake Forest, Indiana, SMU
Next Four Out: North Carolina, North Texas, Nebraska, Xavier
Also Considered: Stanford, Northwestern, Penn State, Arkansas, Boise State, LSU, Cincinnati, USC
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 9
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 1/27/2025
The biggest winner since my last update is clearly Maryland- the Terrapins won back to back road games against Illinois and Indiana. These are their first Q1 wins of the season and the thrashing of Illinois in Champaign is one of the best wins any team in the country has. Maryland has had great computer numbers all season and is starting to build the resume to back it up.
I have Maryland in an 8/9 game playing UConn. In contrast to Maryland, the Huskies are a team going in the wrong direction right now. Their non-conference wins over Baylor and Gonzaga have lost their shine. In a weak Big East, there are not many opportunities left to move the needle. They are one more loss away from a real bubble conversation.
Men’s Bracketology 1/23/2025
Ohio State’s season has been a roller coaster. They looked like a solid tournament team after beating Kentucky over Christmas. They then went 1-4 to start 2025, with the only win being in 2OT over the worst team in the Big Ten. That all changed on Tuesday night with a massive road win at Purdue- their second Q1A win of the year. The Buckeyes move back into the field in this update, although fellow Big Ten teams Nebraska and Maryland fall out.
1: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Iowa State
2: Tennessee, Oregon, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Florida, Kansas, Texas A&M, Michigan State
4: Houston, Purdue, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
5: Memphis, Wisconsin, Louisville, Illinois
6: Michigan, Utah State, West Virginia, UCLA
7: Arizona, Connecticut, St. John’s, Baylor
8: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Georgia, Clemson
9: Creighton, Oklahoma, Missouri, Pittsburgh
10: St. Mary’s, San Diego State, UC Irvine, UCF
11: Vanderbilt, North Carolina, (Arizona State/Ohio State), (Texas/Indiana)
12: Drake, VCU, McNeese, Lipscomb
13: Samford, Yale, Grand Canyon, High Point
14: North Dakota State, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Akron
15: Charleston, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Cleveland State
16: Norfolk State, Quinnipiac, (Colgate/Southern), (Morehead State/LIU)
First Four Out: Maryland, New Mexico, Drake, Arkansas
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Northwestern, Cincinnati, SMU
Also Considered: USC, Nebraska, VCU, Iowa, North Texas, BYU, Xavier, Florida State
Moving In: Texas, Ohio State, Arizona State
Moving Out: New Mexico, Maryland, Nebraska
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 9
ACC: 5
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 1/20/2025
This is an exciting bracketology update for me because (a) today is my birthday and (b) I am writing this update from India. I will be in Asia for the next three weeks so my bracketology updates will not be as frequent as they normally are this time of year.
As for actual basketball- I think the most impactful result of the last week might be Creighton’s win at UConn. The Bluejays were not in the bubble picture as of Christmas, but picked up a second Q1A win of the year against the Huskies. UConn, meanwhile, has fallen to a 7 seed.
We have one real hope for a low major at-large team this year- the UC Irvine Anteaters. Their Kenpom rating is into the 50s now, and if they go 12-1 or 13-0 down the stretch they will be sitting very pretty for an at-large.
Men’s Bracketology 1/13/2025
Saturday’s big games were highlighted by the top teams in the country surviving road tests. Iowa State, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida all picked up quality wins away from home, solidifying their positions at the top of the bracket. I strongly debated the last two 1 seeds but ultimately Tennessee is the odd team out that fell to the 2 line.
The unprecedented strength of the SEC has been well documented this year. However, this is starting to hurt some of the weaker teams in the conference. Arkansas is a good example- the Hogs have started SEC play 0-3 and are now projected for a 17-14 finish, which is likely not enough to get them into the field. John Calipari’s squad is my first team out today.
1: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Alabama
2: Tennessee, Florida, Marquette, Oregon
3: Kentucky, Kansas, Mississippi State, Memphis
4: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Houston, Purdue
5: Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Utah State
6: Connecticut, Baylor, Ole Miss, Wisconsin
7: St. John’s, Arizona, West Virginia, Maryland
8: Georgia, Louisville, Missouri, Pittsburgh
9: Oklahoma, Nebraska, San Diego State, UCLA
10: North Carolina, Ohio State, Arizona State, Vanderbilt
11: Clemson, (Iowa/New Mexico), (St. Mary’s/Texas Tech), Drake
12: UC Irvine, VCU, McNeese, Liberty
13: Yale, Lipscomb, South Alabama, Grand Canyon
14: Samford, High Point, North Dakota State, Charleston
15: Akron, Purdue Fort Wayne, UMass Lowell, Norfolk State
16: Northern Colorado, Merrimack, (Central Connecticut/Southern), (Bucknell/SIU Edwardsville)
First Four Out: Arkansas, Indiana, UCF, SMU
Next Four Out: Creighton, Cincinnati, Texas, Colorado
Also Considered: Georgetown, BYU, Penn State, Villanova
Moving In: Iowa, New Mexico, VCU, North Dakota State, SIU Edwardsville
Moving Out: Indiana, Arkansas, St. Bonaventure, South Dakota State, Southeast Missouri State
Men’s Bracketology 1/11/2025
Much ink has been spilled about how disappointing the ACC has been this year, but the Big East is arguably worse. I am projecting 3 bids for the Big East, the same as they got last year and a far cry from the 6-7 bids that was the norm for this league in the past. I know that the Big East only has 11 teams while the other power conferences have exploded in size, but it is still a huge step back. Georgetown and Villanova could sneak into the field, but this is going to be a 4 bid league at mots.
A loaded Saturday of college hoops awaits. I’m particularly excited for UC Irvine to play UC San Diego- they are two of the best mid-major teams in the country and UC San Diego has done an impressive job of building a great team in only their fifth year in D1.
Men’s Bracketology 1/4/2025
There aren’t many games over Christmas week, but the week of New Year’s has been busy with plenty of movement in the bracket. Illinois, Memphis and UCLA have all jumped into the protected seed range in this update. Illinois and UCLA notched huge wins over Oregon and Gonzaga and look like the class of the Big Ten. Memphis, meanwhile, is on their way to a strange profile of huge non-conference wins and a slew of games against awful AAC teams.
I’ll be updating my bracket at least weekly for the rest of the season, perhaps twice a week.
Women’s Bracketology 12/27/2024
My debut women’s bracketology of the season is here. Despite UCLA’s head to head win over South Carolina, I’ve given the #1 overall seed to South Carolina. The Gamecocks clearly have the better profile with 4 Q1 wins to their name and plenty of opportunities in a loaded SEC.
Elsewhere in the bracket, the story remains consolidation among the top conferences. I have all but three at-large bids going to the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12. The new versions of the Big Ten and SEC both look likely to send double digits teams to the tournament.
Men’s Bracketology 12/23/2024
It is difficult to overstate the level of dominance the SEC has shown so far this season. Not only does the SEC have 13 of its 16 teams in this bracket, but it has two teams each as 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds. Even in the heyday of the old Big East, a conference has never had eight teams as protected seeds.
One disappointing feature of this year’s bracket is that it looks like it will be heavy on power conference teams. Normally you can count on the Mountain West, WCC or A10 to produce a fair number of tournament teams between them. All three leagues look a bit light this year, I project only two at-larges between those leagues right now.
We also look a bit light on mid-major at-large candidates this year. Drake is our best bet- the Bulldogs got a surprising at-large in 2021 and are off to an 11-0 start.
I’ll be updating my men’s bracketology at least weekly through the end of January and start more frequent updates once we get into February.
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 9
ACC: 5
Big East: 2
West Coast: 2
Mountain West: 2
Bracketology 12/2/2024
The first month of the season has been more turbulent than usual. Of the four teams I had as preseason 1 seeds, only Kansas remains on the top line. The others have disappointed to varying degrees- Duke has lost some close games (but will be fine), Houston is 4-3 but has plenty of quality win opportunities remaining, and UConn is an actual bubble team.
One thing that struck me putting together this bracket is how much of the field is filled with SEC and Big 12 teams. There’s two main factors behind this. First, both leagues have expanded from 14 to 16 teams. Second, the ACC and Big East are having awful starts to the season, so there are plenty of bids to go around.
I’ll look to update my seed list again in two weeks or so.
1: Auburn, Kansas, Tennessee, Gonzaga
2: Duke, Alabama, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Iowa State, Florida, Oregon, Purdue
4: Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Pittsburgh
5: Illinois, Wisconsin, Baylor, Texas A&M
6; Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Texas
7: North Carolina, St. John’s, Michigan, Nevada
8: St. Mary’s, Utah State, Texas Tech, UCLA
9: Ohio State, Georgia, BYU, Michigan State
10: Clemson, Ole Miss, Nebraska, West Virginia
11: UC Irvine, New Mexico, (Louisville/Arizona), (Connecticut/San Diego State)
12: Dayton, Liberty, Drake, McNeese
13: Grand Canyon, Lipscomb, Arkansas State, Kent State
14: South Dakota State, Purdue Fort Wayne, Furman, High Point
15: UMass Lowell, Charleston, Columbia, Northern Coloardo
16: Norfolk State, Little Rock, (St. Peter’s/Grambling State), (American/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: LSU, Butler, Maryland, Arkansas
Next Four Out: VCU, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 12: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Big East: 3
West Coast: 2
2024-25 Preseason Bracketology
For a long time I thought that preseason bracketology was a bit of a crapshoot. However, the last two years have changed my mind on that. Consider these stats from recent years:
-In each of the last two years, 15 of the 16 teams I gave top 4 seeds to in the preseason ended up making the tournament. Of my preseason top 16 last year, 12 of them ended up in the actual 16, including all four eventual 1 seeds.
-26 of the 32 teams that I gave top 8 seeds to last preseason ended up making the tournament. The biggest miss was USC, who flamed out with Isaiah Collier and Bronny James.
-Every team that got a top 5 seed in the tournament appeared in my preseason bracket.
If you don’t see your favorite team in this projection, don’t fret- they can still make the tournament. However, the track record for teams getting top seeds after starting far off the preseason radar is quite poor in recent years.
Without further ado, here is my preseason projection for this year. My next update will come in November around the time of the Thanksgiving tournaments.
2024 Bracket Picking Guide
General Bracket Theory
There are a lot of articles out there to help you pick your bracket. Most of them will give you some statistics about past champions and a rule about not picking freshman point guards. I’m aiming to do something a little different and provide a more mathematically sound basis to bracket picking.
It may sound a bit silly, but the first thing you need to figure out when filling in your bracket is what exactly you are trying to accomplish. If you just want to maximize your expected score, the optimal strategy is quite easy- pick only favorites. You’re quite likely to end up above the median bracket with this strategy but quite unlikely to make it to the very top of the leaderboard.
More likely you want to win a pool ranging in size from 5 to 5,000 people. It’s important to note the size of the pool you’re trying to win- the bigger the pool, the more aggressive you need to be. A general rule of thumb I like to follow is that if you’re trying to win a bracket pool of n people, you want to maximize your chances of finishing in the top 1/n brackets. In plain English, if you want to win a 10 person pool, you want to maximize your odds of finishing in the top 1/10 of brackets. Similarly, if you want to win a 5,000 person pool, you want to maximize your odds of finishing in the top 1/5,000 of brackets. Thus, the bigger the pool, the more aggressive you need to be.
The key is to identify which teams are underpicked relative to their true likelihood of winning the tournament and pick them. Just how underpicked of a team you want to go for depends on how aggressive you need to be. If you’re trying to win a 5,000 person pool, you may need to really shoot for the stars, and pick a 1/500 longshot that only 1/5,000 people are picking in their brackets. If you’re trying to win a 5 person pool, you can be a bit more by the book. I generally like to go for an unconventional national champion and then relatively consensus Final Four picks elsewhere. This was my strategy last year and it worked brilliantly as I won my 80 person pool, picking UConn to win it all.
Without further ado, here’s some data on how frequently various teams are being picked (data courtesy of Yahoo!’s bracket challenge) as well as various metrics of how likely each team is to advance to each round.
2024 Data- Overall
Some brief column definitions:
Computer Avg.: The team’s probability of winning the tournament, averaged over the three computer systems shown.
Vig Adjusted Market: The team’s probability of winning the tournament, based on Vegas betting odds (odds courtesy of Circa).
Picked: What % of users are picking the team to win their bracket.
Diff: “Vig Adjusted Market” - “Picked”
Ratio: “Vig Adjusted Market” / “Picked”
The first thing that stands out here is that Connecticut is picked by nearly 1/3 of users, but by most metrics has around a 1/6 chance of winning the tournament. Despite being the most likely to win according to Vegas, there’s no value in the Huskies.
Depending on how big of a pool you’re trying to win, there’s varying degrees of aggression you can take. For a typical pool size of 5-25 brackets, Purdue, Arizona and Tennessee are all reasonable picks. Houston is beloved by the computers but strangely not by the betting markets (this was also the case in 2022). In a 50-100 person pool, Auburn is probably your best bet.
Once your pool size gets into the triple digits, you need to start looking further afield for a champion. BYU and St. Mary’s are decent options, and if you want a real wildcard, maybe take a shot on a New Mexico squad that is a top 30 outfit at most computers and has a favorable first and second round draw.
2024 Data- East Region
Connecticut is picked to make the Final Four by almost 2/3 of users but has only about a 40% chance of making it there. If you’re going to go with an unconventional Final Four pick somewhere, this could be the region to do it. Any of the next three teams- Iowa State, Illinois and Auburn all are underpicked.
2024 Data- South Region
The thing you don’t want to do here is pick Kentucky who is picked in over 20% of brackets but is outside the top 15 in every computer. Going chalk with Houston is a reasonable pick. I am pretty shocked that more people are not picking Duke given their brand, they’re surprisingly underpicked.
2024 Data- Midwest Region
This is probably the least clear region. Creighton could be worth a punt. Gonzaga would be a better pick if they hadn’t drawn an awful first round matchup with McNeese. Purdue and Tennessee are both being picked right in line with their fairs.
2024 Data- West Region
North Carolina is the weakest 1 seed by far, and traditionally picking the worst 1 seed to go down early is a nice strategy. Oddly enough- more people are picking the Tar Heels to make the Final Four than are picking Purdue or Houston. That’s the power of name recognition, I guess.
This is the most wide open region and I couldn’t fault you with picking any of the 2 through 5 seeds to advance, I kind of like a flyer on Alabama who has an easy first round matchup and a talented roster.
All in all, bracket picking is part art and part science. Hopefully after reading this you have a bit of a better idea as to what sorts of risks are worth taking this year and what sorts of risks are not. Best of luck!
Final 2024 Women’s Bracketology
The women’s selection committee tends to be a bit more unpredictable than the men’s, so I’m a lot less confident in these predictions than I am in my men’s predictions. Here are my final predictions for the 2024 women’s field- I’d be pretty happy if I got 66 or more of these teams correct.
1: South Carolina, Iowa, Stanford, UCLA
2: USC, Texas, Ohio State, Connecticut
3: LSU, Notre Dame, NC State, Oregon State
4: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Colorado, Gonzaga
5: Creighton, Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma
6: Baylor, UNLV, Nebraska, West Virginia
7: Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Princeton
8: Ole Miss, Michigan State, Marquette, North Carolina
9: Alabama, Maryland, Florida State, Tennessee
10: Iowa State, Kansas, Penn State, Michigan
11: (Washington State/Miami (FL)), Richmond, (Villanova/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee
12: Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota State, Fairfield
13: Drake, Eastern Washington, Marshall, Rice
14: Jackson State, Portland, Kent State, Chattanooga
15: Norfolk State, Cal Baptist, UC Irvine, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
16: Drexel, Maine, (Sacred Heart/UT-Martin), (Holy Cross/Presbyterian)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Columbia, Arizona, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Auburn, California, Washington
Final 2024 Men’s Bracketology
Selection Sunday is finally upon us. It’s been a tough Sunday for me so far as my Brown Bears dropped the Ivy League final in heartbreaking fashion. I hope things go better for my Michigan State Spartans later tonight- I think MSU is headed to the First Four, but I’d be lying if I said I felt 100% comfortable right now.
My seed list is unchanged from this morning, but my bracket is a bit different as I realized that I put Marquette and UConn in the same region. Alas, these are the perils of putting together a bracket on Saturday after midnight after a full day of watching hoops.
I’m not that confident about the bubble this year- no team outside my top 32 is totally safe and I could reasonably see any of my first 5 teams out in the tournament. I’m in the minority having Mississippi State out of the field but I think they have the worst losses of any of the high major teams on the bubble, most notably the Q4 home loss to Southern.
Best of luck to my fellow bracketologists this year, and once again a hearty thanks to the Bracket Matrix for compiling all of our predictions once again.
(Note- I have marked this bracket final even though the American championship game is still going. In the unlikely event that Temple mounts a massive comeback, I will edit this submission).
1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina
2: Iowa State, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette
3: Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky
4: Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Alabama
5: BYU, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Florida
6: South Carolina, Utah State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
7: Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State, Dayton
8: Clemson, Nebraska, Boise State, Texas
9: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Colorado State, Colorado
10: Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, (TCU/St. John’s), (Michigan State/Texas A&M)
11: Drake, Oregon, NC State, James Madison
12: Grand Canyon, McNeese State, Samford, Duquesne
13: UAB, Vermont, Charleston, Yale
14: Akron, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate
15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Stetson
16: Longwood, St. Peter’s, (Grambling State/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Virginia
Next Four Out: Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/17/2024 AM
The last few days have been the craziest lead-up to Selection Sunday I can remember in my 14 year bracketology career. Oregon, NC State and Temple all stole bids yesterday, bringing us up to a record 4 bid thieves this year (maybe 5, depending on how you categorise New Mexico).
This led to pandemonium on the bubble- I feel a lot less sure about the bubble this year than I do most years. I moved Virginia, Seton Hall and Mississippi State out of my bracket to make room for the 3 bid thieves- I have a feeling that I will be in the minority with Mississippi State not in my final field, but they don’t compare favorably to other 12, 13 and 14 loss major conference teams on the bubble.
I will have my final update this afternoon after the American and Big 10 championship games. Enjoy the last day of conference tournaments!
1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina
2: Iowa State, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette
3: Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky
4: Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Alabama
5: BYU, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Florida
6: South Carolina, Utah State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
7: Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State, Dayton
8: Clemson, Nebraska, Boise State, Texas
9: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Colorado State, Colorado
10: Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, (TCU/St. John’s), (Michigan State/Texas A&M)
11: Drake, Oregon, NC State, James Madison
12: Grand Canyon, McNeese State, Samford, Duquesne
13: UAB, Vermont, Charleston, Yale
14: Akron, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate
15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Stetson
16: Longwood, St. Peter’s, (Grambling State/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Virginia
Next Four Out: Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State
Moving In: UAB, Oregon, NC State, St. Peter’s, Long Beach State, Yale
Moving Out: Virginia, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Fairfield, UC Davis, Princeton
Bracketology 3/16/2024
This is the strongest bubble in recent memory. Bubble teams are winning left and right- the SEC had the biggest winners yesterday as Texas A&M and Mississippi State knocked off Kentucky and Tennessee. When you add in our likely bid thieves- the A-10 already has one and the ACC, Pac-12 and American threaten to have more- it leads to the strongest bubble in my bracketology career.
I’m going to go through the whole seed list with a fine-toothed comb tonight for my final update(s) tomorrow, so expect to see a little movement here or there. 13 more bids will be punched today- buckle up!
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Iowa State
3: Baylor, Creighton, Illinois, Kentucky
4: Kansas, Duke, Auburn, Alabama
5: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah State, Wisconsin
6: St. Mary’s, South Carolina, Gonzaga, San Diego State
7: Florida, Nevada, Dayton, Clemson
8: Washington State, Nebraska, Florida Atlantic, Northwestern
9: Boise State, Texas, Oklahoma, St. John’s
10: Michigan State, Colorado State, Mississippi State, Colorado
11: TCU, (Seton Hall/Texas A&M), Drake, (New Mexico/Virginia)
12: James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon, McNeese State
13: Samford, Vermont, Duquesne, Charleston
14: Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland, Akron
15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Fairfield, UC Davis
16: Stetson, Grambling State, (Longwood/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)
First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Ohio State, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State
Also Considered: Princeton, South Florida
Moving In: Texas A&M, Fairfield, Western Kentucky, Howard, UC Davis
Moving Out: Pittsburgh, Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Norfolk State, UC Irvine
Bracketology 3/15/2024
It was another strong day for bubble teams with Virginia, Colorado, Pitt, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Texas A&M, Providence and Ohio State all winning. This is bad news both for teams that lost yesterday and have no games left (Wake Forest, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State) as well as Indiana State who got passed by New Mexico. Further complicating matters is the chaos in the A-10 where all four top seeds lost, opening up the league as a bid stealer. I have slotted Duquesne in as my second A-10 team and for now they are on the 13 line.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor
3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kentucky, Illinois
4: Kansas, Duke, Alabama, Auburn
5: Utah State, Texas Tech, BYU, South Carolina
6: St. Mary’s, Wisconsin Gonzaga, Washington State
7: Nevada, San Diego State, Northwestern, Dayton
8: Florida, Clemson, Florida Atlantic, Boise State
9: Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, St. John’s
10: Colorado State, Michigan State, TCU, Seton Hall
11: Virginia, Drake, (Colorado/Pittsburgh), (Mississippi State/New Mexico)
12: James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon, McNeese State
13: Samford, Vermont, Duquesne, Charleston
14: UC Irvine, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland
15: Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Akron, South Dakota State
16: Stetson, Norfolk State, (Grambling State/Longwood), (Montana State/Wagner)
First Four Out: Indiana State, Texas A&M, Providence, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State
Also Considered: Princeton, South Florida
Moving In: Duquesne, New Mexico
Moving Out: Wake Forest, Indiana State