College Football Ratings Week 13 2023
I had a great time in Ann Arbor for Ohio State/Michigan this weekend. Even though I grew up in Michigan I haven’t been to the Big House that many times and this was my first OSU/Michigan game. The Wolverines really look like a complete team- they were never particularly explosive, but they didn’t need to be. I was particularly impressed by their final drive where they chewed 7 minutes off the clock, repeatedly running the ball effectively in 22 or 13 personnel.
Elsewhere, chalk held once again and we enter championship weekend with an unprecedented 4 undefeated teams. Maybe next weekend we will see our first big upsets of the season.
Top 25
Oregon
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Michigan
Notre Dame (+2)
Alabama
LSU (-2)
Penn State
Oklahoma (+1)
Missouri (+3)
Louisville (-1)
Arizona (+5)
Texas (+2)
Texas A&M (+4)
Kansas (+5)
Clemson (-3)
Florida State (-3)
Washington (+1)
Oregon State (-7)
Tennessee (+1)
SMU (+3)
Florida
Iowa State (+13)
Maryland (-1)
Miami (+2)
Oregon increased their lead at the top with a dominating win over Oregon State. I’m pretty unique in computer models in having the Ducks #1 overall (more on that in my picks this week) and their margin is growing. Bo Nix is completing nearly 80% of his passes and the Ducks are physical on both lines. Missouri rises into the top 10 of my ratings for the first time in nearly a decade. The Tigers are perhaps an interception against Georgia away from playing Alabama for a berth in the playoff this weekend. Iowa State pulled off an extremely impressive win over a good Kansas State team in the snow and has rescued what looked like a lost season in September.
Moving Up
Virginia Tech has been in the wilderness for a few years now but dominated rivals Virginia on the road to reach bowl eligibility. The Hokies surpassed any reasonable expectation this year and I like them as a sleeper pick for 2024. No one noticed, because it’s the MAC, but Bowling Green has had an excellent second half of the season. They finished on a 5-1 stretch with the lone loss being by one point to league champions Toledo. Colorado hasn’t featured in this section since September, but was shockingly competitive in a tight road loss to Utah without Shedeur Sanders.
Moving Down
I have a feeling that Navy is going to deeply regret firing Ken Niumatalolo in a few year’s time. They are 5-6 after a disastrous loss to SMU where they allowed 50 in the first half, and are quite a bit worse than their record indicates. Stanford might be the worst team in the Power Five, they got extremely lucky to win 3 FBS games and got predictably vaporized by Notre Dame. Oregon State was the latest victim of the demolition machine that is this year’s Oregon team in a non-competitive 31-7 loss.
College Football Picks Week 13 2023
Last week was mixed, Coastal Carolina really disappointed me while I had some easy covers elsewhere on New Mexico and Arizona. The week could’ve been amazing if I thought to play New Mexico ML but it was so much of a long shot I didn’t bother.
Preseason: +8.21 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Week 12: -1.01 units
Total: +0.73 units
Kansas @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Kansas will drop out of the rankings after their loss to Kansas State last weekend, but this is still a banner year for the Jayhawks. They’ve been playing with a second or third string QB all year and have established themselves as a fringe top 25 outfit. Cincinnati, meanwhile, does not have a pulse. This line should be in the low double digits. Amazingly, it opened at 3, but was up to this number by the time I could bet it. Kansas is my favorite play of the week.
Kansas -6 -110 (4 units)
BYU @ Oklahoma State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been lower on Oklahoma State than the consensus for some time now but have not had an opportunity to bet against them yet. I’m taking it here- the Cowboys have completely disappeared in two separate losses this season (South Alabama and UCF) and have had some pretty good close game luck. BYU is also worse than their record but I don’t think a Power Five team with a pulse should be this big of an underdog to an OK State squad that ranks around 40th.
BYU +17.5 -110 (3 units)
Kentucky @ Louisville (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a buyer of Louisville for a few weeks now, and my Louisville to win the ACC +300 bet from last week is looking quite good in the wake of Florida State QB Jordan Travis’ injury. I’ll pile on more exposure on the Cardinals here- they have a lot of impressive wins over decent teams like Miami and Virginia Tech. Kentucky is the same plodding Kentucky team you know and love, but without any freak athletes like Josh Allen (the DE, not the QB) or Lynn Bowden. Louisville should roll here.
Louisville -7 -110 (3 units)
Arizona @ Arizona State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is another line I’m upset about- I saw this open at the single digits at Circa but it was bid up to the low double digits by the time I got a chance at it. Arizona has been my second most profitable team of the year behind New Mexico State and I will ride the Wildcats again here. Arizona State was pulverized by Oregon last week and nearly lost to a bad FCS team in Southern Utah earlier this season. Arizona has an outside shot at the Pac-12 title game and will dominate their in-state rivals here.
Arizona -12.5 -110 (2 units)
Indiana @ Purdue (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Purdue is one of the best 3-8 teams I’ve seen. The Boilermakers have a handful of close losses and scored a big win for me against Minnesota a few weeks ago. I like them once again here- they have far more talent than Indiana, especially on the line of scrimmage. Tom Allen may be coaching for his job as Indiana HC but I think he’ll come up short here.
Purdue -2.5 -110 (2 units)
Utah State @ New Mexico (Friday, 2:30 PM Central)
New Mexico won outright last week as a 24 point underdog, and I’m really annoyed with myself for not betting on their moneyline at +2000. The Lobos have turned things around and are now a bottom 10 outfit in FBS as opposed to a bottom 5 one. Utah State has been overrated all season and I’m happy to fade them here.
New Mexico +8.5 -110 (2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 12 2023
The favorites just keep on winning- we now enter rivalry week with an unprecedented 5 11-0 power conference teams. It’s a good thing we don’t have the BCS anymore, I can’t imagine how much of a nightmare adjudicating this mess would be with a 2 team format.
Top 25
Oregon (+3)
Georgia (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Michigan (-3)
LSU (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Notre Dame
Penn State (+2)
Louisville (+6)
Oklahoma (-1)
Texas (+2)
Oregon State (+4)
Missouri (-5)
Florida State
Clemson (+2)
Kansas State (-5)
Arizona (+3)
Texas A&M (-6)
Washington
Kansas (+4)
Tennessee (-3)
Florida (+14)
Maryland (+14)
USC (-1)
SMU (+1)
Next Ten: UCF, Miami, TCU, North Carolina, Ole Miss, NC State, UCLA, Auburn, Liberty, South Carolina
Oregon has moved to the #1 spot in my ratings for the first time in a decade. The Ducks put up one of the most dominant performances you’ll ever see against Arizona State last week. They figure to be at least a touchdown favorite against Washington in a potential Pac-12 title game rematch. Michigan moves out of the top spot after an extremely disappointing performance against Maryland. The Wolverines’ defense looked mortal for the first time all year and the Terrapins had multiple chances in the 4th quarter to win the game. Florida outplayed Missouri on the road and is probably the most unlucky team in the country- they’re a fringe top 25 outfit that is 5-6.
Moving Up
I have been a huge believer in New Mexico State all year, but even I did not expect them to beat Auburn. They became the first team of the year to win by 20+ points as a 20+ point underdog, and it wasn’t a fluky game- they just outplayed Auburn on the line of scrimmage. New Mexico also won outright as a 24 point underdog- I picked the Lobos +24 and am really kicking myself for not sprinkling on half a unit on their moneyline. Arkansas State looked like the worst team in FBS in September but Butch Jones has saved his job with a miraculous turnaround, and the Red Wolves are now bowl eligible.
Moving Down
At this rate, Colorado might finish below their preseason rating. The wheels have come off for the Buffaloes and they were uncompetitive with Washington State. Louisiana Tech is the biggest dumpster fire in the sport as head coach Sonny Cumbie has gone to war with the local media and his team is a disaster. Louisiana Tech under was probably my best win total bet of the year. Cincinnati is also a total mess under first year coach Scott Satterfield and looks nothing like the team that went to the playoff wtih Desmond Ridder and Sauce Gardner two years ago.
College Football Picks Week 12 2023
Last week was amazing. I cashed my +1000 ticket on New Mexico State to make the CUSA title game as they knocked off Western Kentucky to clinch second place in the conference. Those 20 units could be the difference between a winning season and a losing one for me. My bets last week did fine as well, with Purdue and Coastal Carolina covering easily.
Preseason: +10.74 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Total: +4.27 units
Coastal Carolina @ Army (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Coastal Carolina has been one of my money teams recently- the Chanticleers have rattled off 5 wins in a row after a 2-3 start. I really like them here- they’ve proven to be more than injured QB Grayson McCall as many of those wins have come since his injury. Army has some awful losses to ULM and UMass and should be a double digit underdog here.
Coastal Carolina -5.5 -110 (4 units)
New Mexico @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
I need to preface this by noting that New Mexico is a horrible football team. However, I’m concerned with what I’ve seen recently from Fresno State and don’t think they should be a 24 point favorite against any FBS team. They’ve been worse than their record all year- they were beneficiaries of close game luck all year and then felt the brunt of it in a blowout loss to San Jose State. They couldn’t beat awful Eastern Washington or Nevada teams by 24 so I don’t think they can blowout New Mexico.
New Mexico +24 -110 (3 units)
Hawaii @ Wyoming (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
Hawaii pulled off one of the most shocking results of the season last week with a home win over Air Force. I’m backing the Rainbow Warriors here- head coach Timmy Chang took over the worst situation in FBS but has made something out of it. Wyoming is one of the better teams in the Mountain West but Hawaii now has a pulse and this line is priced as if they don’t.
Hawaii +15.5 -110 (3 units)
Hawaii ML +455 (1 unit)
Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Western Kentucky all year and will continue to do so here. They thankfully lost to New Mexico State last week and have not been able to enforce their talent advantage on the rest of Conference USA. Sam Houston State has been better than their record all year and has a shot at their biggest win as an FBS program here.
Sam Houston State +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Sam Houston State ML +400 (1 unit)
Hawaii ML/Sam Houston State ML +2675 (0.1 units)
Duke @ Virginia (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
Duke has not been the same team since Riley Leonard got hurt a few weeks ago. Virginia, on the other hand, has seen a midseason renaissance. I was worried the Cavaliers might not win an FBS game a few weeks ago, but I now think they’ve escaped the bottom of the ACC. They nearly knocked off Louisville on the road last week and can definitely win this game.
Virginia +4 -110 (2 units)
Central Michigan @ Ohio (Wednesday, 6 PM Central)
Central Michigan might be the most overrated team in the country, this is the third week in a row I’ve bet against them. Ohio’s season has flown under the radar since their loss to Miami (OH) knocked them out of serious MAC contention, but their September win over Iowa State only looks more impressive as time passes. I like the Bobcats to win in a rout.
Ohio -8.5 -110 (2 units)
Washington vs. Oregon State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
This is the best game of the weekend and Oregon State has a chance for their biggest win since they knocked off #1 USC in 2008. I think the Beavers should be favored here- Washington has been playing at a below top 25 level since their win over Oregon, while Beavers QB DJ Uiagalelei has been playing like the 5 star we knew he could be the last few weeks.
Oregon State +1 -110 (1 unit)
Utah vs. Arizona (Saturday, 1:30 PM Central)
Arizona has been one of my most profitable teams all year and I’m going back to them here. Utah has taken some blowout losses while the Wildcats have been remarkably consistent all year. Arizona QB Noah Fifita will be the best player on the field and the ‘Cats have an outside chance at the Pac-12 championship.
Arizona +1 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville is reasonably likely to face Florida State in the ACC title game. They can get there with a win against Miami this weekend (they’re a 1 point favorite) or a UNC loss to either Clemson (where UNC is a touchdown underdog) or NC State. I think the Cardinals would have a decent chance to beat Florida State in a potential matchup- FSU has fallen outside the top 10 of my ratings and Louisville has a much better defense than you realize.
Louisville to win the ACC +300 (2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 11 2023
We still have not had many big upsets this season- 2023 is the first year this millennium that 5 power conference teams have reached 10-0. It’s led to an interesting playoff race where some good 1 loss teams like Alabama and Texas may not control their own destiny.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Georgia (+1)
Oregon (-1)
Alabama (+2)
LSU (-1)
Notre Dame (-1)
Missouri (+10)
Oklahoma (+4)
Penn State (+2)
Kansas State (+3)
Texas A&M (+4)
Texas (-3)
Florida State (-3)
Louisville (+7)
Oregon State (+3)
Clemson
Tennessee (-9)
Washington (-4)
Arizona (+1)
Auburn (+16)
Miami (+2)
USC
Kansas (-2)
Utah (+7)
Missouri destroyed Tennessee and moved into my top 10 for the first time all season. The Tigers have not been to a major bowl game since the 1972 Fiesta Bowl (they’ve made the Cotton Bowl twice, but it was in the BCS era when it was not a major bowl). They’re two wins away from a surefire major bowl bid. Kansas State continues to destroy lesser opponents and has a shot at the Big 12 title game, where they’d roughly be a tossup in a rematch with Texas. Auburn destroyed Arkansas and has flown back into my top 25 in advance of the Iron Bowl.
Moving Up
Hawaii pulled off the rare feat of winning by double digits in a game in which they were a double digit underdog. They knocked off Air Force, whose season has gone off the rails with back to back losses after an 8-8 start. Elsewhere in the Mountain West, San Jose State demolished 8-1 Fresno State at home and is now a real player in the conference title race. Northwestern has been the surprise of the Big Ten- they also won by double digits as a double digit dog and are one win away from a shocking bowl bid.
Moving Down
Georgia State has outperformed any reasonable expectations this season but was evaporated at home by Appalachian State, costing them any real chance at a Sun Belt title. Arkansas followed up their win against Florida with an absolutely dreadful performance as a favorite against Auburn. Oklahoma State had their annual unexplainable blowout loss, this time to UCF.
College Football Picks Week 11 2023
Last week was my best of the season. I got some good luck as Charlotte and Houston both covered in OT wins and UTEP covered by a few points. The real success was in my future bets where I cashed UMass over 2 wins as they picked up their third win of the season against Merrimack. I also cashed my preseason bets on Louisiana Tech and Kansas and got a key win from Stanford as a +14 dog.
Here’s the update on my preseason bets. I have an enormous amount of exposure to New Mexico State as I will cash my 10/1 futures bet on them if they can beat Western Kentucky this weekend.
Preseason: +4.66 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Total: -4.14 units
Purdue @ Minnesota (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
The Big Ten West may look like a trash heap to most observers but I think there is some good value to be found in betting on these games. Purdue is 2-7 but has been a lot better than their record- they have had some horrific close game luck and have played by far the toughest schedule of any team in the division. I think they’re a good bit better than a lucky Minnesota team.
Purdue +1 -110 (3 units)
Texas Tech @ Kansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Kansas has been one of my money teams all season- my Kansas over 6 wins bet just cashed as the Jayhawks are now 7-2. I’m continuing to ride them here- they’ve just entered my top 25 for the first time all season and while Texas Tech is better than their 4-5 record would suggest, they’re a good bit behind Kansas.
Kansas -3.5 -112 (2 units)
Rice @ UTSA (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Rice is putting together their best season in many years, and if it were not for a shocking loss to UConn they’d be a near lock to make a bowl game. They’ve lost back to back close games to Tulane and SMU, who I think are the two best teams in the AAC. UTSA is a decent team but Rice has been undervalued all season and I’m on them once again here.
Rice +13 -110 (2 units)
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been fading Texas State all year and it’s been one of my worst decisions of the season. The Bobcats were projected for 4.5 wins and are already 6-3. I clearly haven’t learned from my mistakes as I’m on Coastal Carolina here- the Chanticleers were expected to falter after all-world QB Grayson McCall went down with an injury but have instead won 4 games in a row. My model still thinks Texas State is not that talented and has been playing above their heads all season.
Coastal Carolina +1 -112 (2 units)
Miami @ Florida State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Florida State has flown a bit under the radar in recent weeks as they’ve been playing the soft section of their ACC schedule. Miami’s struggles this year have been well chronicled but underneath all the poor game management decisions I think there is a lot of talent on the Hurricanes roster. They can give archrivals Florida State a bit of a game here.
Miami +14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
Fellow Michiganders know how big of a rivalry this is- quite arguably the biggest in the MAC. I’ve been fading Central Michigan a bit and will continue to do so here. They were quite lucky to survive a furious Northern Illinois comeback this year and Western has turned things around massively after a slow start to the season.
Western Michigan -3.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 10 2023
Week 10 was the best of the season so far. There were multiple great games in every time window- I particularly enjoyed Ohio State/Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights put up their most impressive game in nearly a decade. If not for a backbreaking pick six, Rutgers easily could’ve won that game.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Oregon
Georgia
LSU
Notre Dame
Alabama
Louisville (+7)
Tennessee (+5)
Texas (-2)
Florida State (-2)
Penn State (+6)
Oklahoma (-1)
Kansas State (-3)
Washington (-2)
Texas A&M (-6)
Clemson (-1)
Missouri (+2)
Oregon State (-2)
Ole Miss (+1)
Arizona (+1)
Kansas (+6)
USC
Miami (-5)
North Carolina (-1)
I have been extremely impressed with Louisville the last two weeks. Since losing to Pitt, they have beaten Duke and Virginia Tech by a combined 57-3 and have moved into my top 10 for the first time all year. Penn State followed up a horrible performance against Indiana with a dominating win on the road against Maryland. Michigan comes to Happy Valley this weekend and the Nittany Lions will have a shot at the Big Ten East if they can pull the upset. Arizona picked up another impressive win against UCLA and is one of the most improved teams in the country this year.
Moving Up
Army lost to UMass last week and then beat Air Force by 20 points this week. This has to be the most confusing pair of results of the season, but this sort of thing can happen to option teams sometimes. The Black Knights were the beneficiaries of some amazing fumble luck against Air Force this week. Utah responded well from their blowout loss to Oregon as they evaporated Arizona State 55-3. The Utes have been extremely impressive this year given their horrible injury luck. Georgia Tech dominated Virginia on the road and now looks likely to make their first bowl game in 5 years.
Moving Down
Virginia Tech had put together a few good results in a row but was completely outmatched by Louisville and now needs to win two of their last three to make a bowl. BYU has been a lot worse than their record all year and probably needs to beat Iowa State this weekend to make a bowl after a blowout loss to West Virginia. Duke got very lucky to beat Wake Forest and has been nowhere near the same team since Riley Leonard got hurt.
College Football Picks Week 10 2023
After a few unlucky weeks, I’ll count this one as a lucky one. Rice was down big before coming back to cover against Tulane. Pitt got evaporated by Notre Dame, allowing 58 points. I’ll gladly take a split between those two games.
I took a long look at my preseason bets today, and the +0.29 units figure you see below represents my best guess as to what the current mark to market value of my bets is. By far the biggest decision remaining is on New Mexico State- I have 2 units on them to make the CUSA title game at +1000. They beat Louisiana Tech this week and are now about a coin flip to make the title game. Here’s a table with all of my preseason bets and their current state.
Preseason: +0.29 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Total: -14.6 units
Charlotte @ Tulsa (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
These teams are both exceptionally bad. This is nothing new for Charlotte, who has been a sub-100 team for almost their entire time in FBS, but it’s a step back for a Tulsa team that was in the top 25 3 years ago. Recent results lead me to believe that Tulsa is a good bit worse than Charlotte- they have lost their last two games by a combined 111-20. Their defense is a sieve and I think that Charlotte gets their second FBS win of the year here.
Charlotte +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Western Kentucky @ UTEP (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
Western Kentucky’s season has fizzled out quite a bit- the Hilltoppers had a lot of buzz in the preseason but have fallen to 4-4. UTEP has proven an ability to beat the dregs of FBS and I don’t think they should be double digit dogs at home here. WKU is New Mexico State’s biggest competition to make the conference title game so I’m really doubling down here, but I do quite like the Miners.
UTEP +11 -110 (3 units)
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
The MAC is a strange conference where no team really has a fundamental recruiting advantage. If there are any “haves” in this league, it would be Toledo and Northern Illinois. The Huskies have shown this in recent games- they have one of the most talented rosters in the conference and have ridden it to three straight wins. Central Michigan is a sneaky bad team that I bet against a few weeks ago and I’m picking against them once again here.
Northern Illinois -2 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ Baylor (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
While both of these teams have been disappointments this year, Baylor has been the bigger one. The Bears are two years removed from a BIg 12 title and will now be very lucky to make a bowl. It’s a strange thing to say about a team with a Hail Mary win, but Houston has been a bit unlucky this year and I think they’re better than the dregs of the Big 12.
Houston +4.5 -112 (2 units)
Tulane @ East Carolina (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I faded Tulane last week against Rice and am looking to do so again. The Green Wave are skirting by a bit on their reputation and lucky win/loss record- they’re very clearly a step behind the best teams in the AAC (SMU and Memphis). The problem here is that East Carolina is absolutely horrible. Still, the Green Wave are not good enough to be a two touchdown road favorite.
East Carolina +16.5 -108 (2 units)
South Alabama @ Troy (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
These two teams are expected to dominate the Sun Belt West for years to come. They were both double digit win teams last year, with the division being determined by a 10-6 Troy win. I think South Alabama can get revenge this year- the Jaguars have some confusing losses, but they’ve shown incredible upside, like they did in a blowout win over Oklahoma State. I’m doubling down here (I also have a South Alabama to win the Sun Belt West ticket) but like the Jaguars here.
South Alabama +6 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 9 2023
This weekend was lacking big matchups on paper. We did get one big upset as Kansas took down Oklahoma, knocking us down to 4 power conference unbeatens. Next week’s schedule looks quite a bit bigger, with LSU/Alabama, Kansas State/Texas and Washington/USC all likely to play big roles in conference championship races.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Oregon (+2)
Georgia (-1)
LSU
Notre Dame (+6)
Alabama (+1)
Texas (-1)
Florida State (+2)
Texas A&M
Kansas State (+6)
Oklahoma (+1)
Washington (-7)
Tennessee
Louisville (+4)
Clemson (-1)
Oregon State (+1)
Penn State (-9)
Miami (-3)
Missouri
Ole Miss (+3)
Arizona
USC (-2)
North Carolina (-1)
UCLA (+4)
If Notre Dame had held on to beat Ohio State we’d be talking about the Irish as a likely playoff team right now. They’ve played a ridiculous schedule and if they get past Clemson this weekend they’ll skate into a major bowl at 10-2. Kansas State has won back to back games 41-0 and 41-3. They’re 6-2 but both their losses are by one score, while all six of their wins are by double digits. Penn State looked awful against Indiana and my hopes for a competitive game against Michigan are quite low.
Moving Up
Stanford had the ball down two with three minutes to play, but dropped a fourth down conversion. Still, they were competitive against Washington as 28 point underdogs and no longer look like the worst team in the Power Five. SMU dropped 69 points on Tulsa and has one of the most explosive offenses in college football. The Mustangs are now my top ranked G5 team. Virginia Tech looked horrible in September but has been fantastic in October and now has an outside shot at the ACC title.
Moving Down
Utah lost 35-6 at home to Oregon. The Utes have been devastated by injuries this year and haven’t been able to play their usual physical brand of football. I bet on Pitt this week and it went very poorly- they lost 58-7 to Notre Dame and are now staring down the barrel of a 2-10 season. Army has fallen apart with their new-look gun option offense and lost at home to hapless UMass.
College Football Picks Week 8 2023
Last week was absolutely brutal. The lowlight was Pitt- QB Christian Veilleux could have run for the game clinching first down but slid short of the first down marker. The Panthers then had to punt and let Wake Forest drive the length of the field in 40 seconds to lose the game. UConn also led all game and then lost by 3 as a 2.5 point underdog. On to the next week.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Total: -11.97 units
Tulane @ Rice (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
It’s kind of shocking that a program as historically bad as Tulane has put together 2 great seasons in a row. The Green Wave went 13-1 last year and are off to a 6-1 start with their lone loss to a good Ole Miss team. Rice has been a pleasant surprise this year and they have a great QB in former Georgia star J.T. Daniels. I think the Owls are one of the most undervalued teams in the country and like them here.
Rice +10 -105 (2 units)
Rice ML +330 (1 unit)
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Pitt screwed me over last week but I am going back to them this week. They are probably the best 2-5 team in the country- they have outgained their opponents in several of their losses and probably deserve to be 4-3 or so. Their QB play has also been a bit improved since Phil Jurkovec was benched. Notre Dame is a good team but the “Pitt superweapon” has a nonzero chance of pulling one of its trademark upsets here.
Pittsburgh +20.5 -108 (2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 8 2023
Penn State has been a full step below Michigan and Ohio State for a few years, and Saturday was their chance to change that. They did nothing of the sort, looking hapless offensively against Ohio State. Out west, USC picked up their second loss of the season and Washington looked very shaky against Arizona State- I still think the most likely scenario is an Oregon/Washington rematch in Vegas in December.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Georgia
LSU (+2)
Oregon (+2)
Washington (-2)
Texas (-2)
Alabama
Penn State
Texas A&M (+1)
Florida State (+1)
Notre Dame (+1)
Oklahoma (-3)
Tennessee (+1)
Clemson (-1)
Miami
Kansas State (+5)
Oregon State (-1)
Louisville (-1)
Missouri (+3)
USC (-1)
Arizona (-1)
North Carolina (-4)
Ole Miss (+3)
Wisconsin (-1)
Moving Up
Oklahoma and Texas are the clear top teams in the Big 12 but Kansas State has established themselves firmly in the #3 spot. They continue to operate a 2 QB system flawlessly and destroyed TCU this week- a big trip to Austin awaits in two weeks. South Alabama picked up a strange loss to Central Michigan but now looks like one of the best teams in the G5 after back to back wins by 48 and 52. I thought that Tony Elliot might not survive the season at Virginia but they got their biggest win in years, knocking off North Carolina as a three touchdown underdog.
Moving Down
Michigan State has fallen short of even my pessimistic forecast for them. They were destroyed 49-0 at home by Michigan and may not win a Big Ten game this year. Army was blanked 62-0 by LSU and will have their first losing record in five years. East Carolina might be the most disappointing team in FBS, the Pirates are winless against FBS competition and have fallen tremendously since the Lincoln Riley days.
College Football Picks Week 8 2023
Arizona continues to be my money team this year with their second no doubt cover in a row. The Wildcats covered +8 by 46 points in a blowout victory over Washington State. TCU also covered easily, but unfortunately I lost betting against Iowa for the second week in a row.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Total: -6.88 units
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Wake Forest all season- I faded them against Old Dominion (where they almost lost outright) and also against Georgia Tech. I’m continuing to sell them here- their offense is just simply not the same without Sam Hartman behind center. Pitt handed Louisville their first loss last week, which is right in line with the standard Pitt season of losing to bad teams and beating good teams.
Pittsburgh +1 -110 (3 units)
South Florida @ UConn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Longtime readers will know how much I love betting on UConn, often to my own detriment. This week will be no different- the Huskies have shown a pulse with a win over Rice and a one point loss to Utah State. South Florida has been on a rolller coaster this season- they were supposed to be awful, looked decent in September, and then the bottom has fallen back out in the last few weeks. I think these teams are close to even so I like UConn here.
UConn +2.5 -110 (2 units)
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
The MAC is a funny conference- there is no league in the country with more parity. At the start of the season it can be a challenge to separate the good teams from the bad. Now that the dust has settled a bit it’s clear that Northern Illinois is a contender- they beat MAC favorite Ohio last week. Chris Creighton has done an outstanding job in his tenure in Ypsilanti but this is not one of his better teams- they almost lost to UMass. UConn wasn’t enough for me- I’m picking another Husky team in this matchup.
Northern Illinois -12 -110 (1 unit)
Texas @ Houston (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
I circled this game on my calendar in the preseason as one to watch. Texas fans are irate at the prospect of having to travel to face a Houston program that they view as far beneath them. Unfortunately Texas has significantly overperformed expectations while Houston has underperformed, pushing this to a three touchdown spread. I do think the line is a little big though- Houston can really put up some points as you’d expect from a Dana Holgorsen offense.
Houston +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 7 2023
We’re roughly halfway through the season and we’re down to 11 unbeatens- 8 from the Power Five and 3 mid majors. No team has a greater than 50/50 shot at making it to 12-0, but the most likely case is that 2 teams make it there. I will take a wild guess and say that Michigan and Air Force are our two lucky teams who make it to 12-0.
Top 25
Numbers in parentheses indicate (a) ranking change from last week and (b) a team’s current betting odds of making the playoff.
Michigan (0, -155)
Ohio State (+1, +170)
Georgia (-1, -195)
Washington (+1, +125)
Texas (-1, +240)
LSU (+2, +1800)
Oregon (-1, +500)
Alabama (-1, +400)
Penn State (+6, +250)
Oklahoma (-1, +160)
Texas A&M (0)
Florida State (-2, -150)
Notre Dame (0, +2500)
Clemson (0)
Tennessee (-3, +2200)
Miami (+2)
Oregon State (+3, +1400)
Louisville (-2)
North Carolina (-2, +750)
USC (-1, +900)
Arizona (+7)
Kansas State (+8)
Missouri (+3)
Wisconsin (-3)
Utah (+2)
Washington won an all time classic against Oregon. Given how close the game was, they don’t move much in my ratings, but they do make a massive jump in playoff odds from +250 to +125. I have been lower than most on Penn State for most of the season but they shot up my ratings after evaporating UMass. Oregon State continued their solid season with a win over UCLA and has a good chance at their first major bowl bid in twenty years.
Moving Up
Unlike most, I had James Madison as the best team in the Sun Belt in the preseason but they have surpassed even my expectations. The Dukes beat a good Georgia Southern team by 28 and are neck and neck with Air Force and Tulane for the best team in the Group of Five. Vanderbilt was a 30 point underdog against Georgia and played the Bulldogs much closer than anyone could have expected. I’ve bet against Iowa each of the last two weeks but have been punished for it and the Hawkeyes have entered my top 40.
Moving Down
Unfortunately for those who follow my picks, the bottom might have fallen out for UMass as they lost 63-0 to Penn State. They have two more realistic chances at wins against Merrimack and UConn in November. South Florida has been on a roller coaster this year- they were the biggest surprise team of September before coming crashing down to earth with blowout losses to UAB and FAU, in games that were supposed to be coin flips. Washington State lost by 38 at home to Arizona and likely won’t sniff the top 25 for the rest of the season.
College Football Picks Week 7 2023
I broke even last week but it could have been a bit better. Both of my winners (Arizona and Texas Tech) covered by multiple touchdowns while my losers (Purdue and Texas A&M) both had real shots to cover. I also got my first preseason bet right as Texas A&M covered the +8.5 lookahead line I bet in August even as they failed to cover the +2.5 line I bet last week.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Total: -7.43 units
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Iowa’s offense is so bad it defies logic. This was the case even before starting QB Cade McNamara went down with a season ending injury, but has been magnified since then- backup QB went 6/21 for 110 yards last weke. This game is going to be a total slugfest with bad weather- the total is in the mid 30s. I think that Wisconsin is a clear play here- their offense has improved significantly since their early loss to Washington State and they are multiple touchdowns better than a one dimensional Iowa squad.
Wisconsin -10 -110 (3 units)
Arizona @ Washington State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I have been all over the Arizona train for the last two weeks and am continuing it here. Backup QB Noah Fifita has started the last two and has been a revelation, throwing for 8 TDs and 2 INTs against Washington and USC. The Wildcats are up to the 30s in my ratings, their highest perch in half a decade. Washington State has always been a bit worse than their AP ranking would suggest and these teams are pretty even in my book.
Arizona +8 -110 (2 units)
BYU @ TCU (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Most of the games I bet, I have a pretty good guess for what the Vegas line will be and have an inkling in advance what the Vegas line will be. This was not one of those games- I was sure this line was going to be in the double digits and was shocked to see it at 5. TCU had every single bounce go their way last year and this year has seen the other side of close game variance, BYU is a decent team but TCU is not far outside my top 25.
TCU -5 -110 (2 units)
Akron @ Central Michigan (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I highlighted Central Michigan in my ratings post this week as a team on the downswing- the Chippewas must be the worst 3-3 team in the country, they just got evaporated by a bad Buffalo team. I’ve been bullish on Akron all year and they are really unlucky to only have 1 win, most notably they lost a 4OT game to Indiana. CMU deserves to be viewed as a bottom tier MAC team.
Akron +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
San Jose State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
New Mexico is really bad- definitely among the bottom 10 teams in FBS, if not the bottom 5. However, I don’t really think San Jose State should be a touchdown road favorite over almost any FBS team. The Spartans have fallen off significantly since their miracle 2020 season and are now a bottom 25 team in FBS.
New Mexico +8 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 6 2023
The Red River Rivalry never disappoints and this year’s game was no exception. The middle of the Big 12 is so weak that a Texas/Oklahoma rematch in the conference title game is more likely than not- there is not a single other team from the conference in my top 25.
Top 25
Michigan
Georgia
Ohio State (+1)
Texas (-1)
Washington
Oregon
Alabama (+4)
LSU (+1)
Oklahoma (+4)
Florida State
Texas A&M (-3)
Tennessee (+2)
Notre Dame (-6)
Clemson (-2)
Penn State
Louisville (+4)
North Carolina (+2)
Miami (-2)
USC (-2)
Oregon State (-2)
Wisconsin (+4)
UCLA
Duke
Florida (+3)
Ole Miss (-1)
Oklahoma moves into the top 10 for the first time all season. I was low on the Sooners in the preseason- I had them 24th, which was lower than pretty much anyone else. I have to eat some crow on that now as their path to the playoff is crystal clear. Louisville got a humongous win against Notre Dame to move to their highest ranking of the year. The ACC schedule is a bit of a mess as the 3 undefeated teams (Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina) all don’t play each other so there are no obvious losses for any of the 3- the Cardinals have a real shot at a 10 or 11 win season. Wisconsin has looked quite solid since their loss to Washington State and has established themselves as the clear favorites in the BIg Ten West ahead of a visit from Iowa this Saturday.
Moving Up
Few teams have had a more confusing season than Northern Illinois. The Huskies own a P5 win versus Boston College and a loss to FCS Southern Illinois. They were my biggest risers this week after a 41 point road win over Akron. Kansas has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, running for for 399 yards on 51 carries against a good UCF team- the Jayhawks should beat Oklahoma State this week to set up a ranked matchup against Oklahoma in two weeks. Michigan continues to evaporate bad teams (Minnesota was this week’s victim) and JJ McCarthy’s rate stats remain unbelievable.
Moving Down
South Florida was one of the biggest risers in September- their recent win over Navy was their first road win since 2019. They fell back down to earth hard this week with a 21 point loss to a bad UAB team. Kentucky looked like they might be a 9-3 type team but were uncompetitive from the first snap against Georgia and have fallen back to 7-5 type territory. Questions are circling in Mount Pleasant around the future for Jim McElwain as Central Michigan has taken the Chippewas into the bottom 10 of my ratings.
College Football Picks Week 6 2023
Last week was my best of the season, largely thanks to West Virginia. The Mountaineers cashed as a +370 underdog, winning by 3 thanks to blocking two TCU field goals in the 4th quarter. My season turned around at this time last year so hopefully this is the beginning of a nice winning streak.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Total: -9.07 units
Arizona @ USC (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
Arizona was awful not long ago- they went a combined 1-16 in 2020 and 2021. They’ve improved tremendously in the last two years and gave Washington a real game last week even with starting QB Jayden de Laura hurt. Their offense will be capable with or without de Laura and as we saw last week against Colorado, the USC defense is a complete sieve. Arizona is a top 40 team in the country and should not be getting three touchdowns here.
Arizona +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Purdue @ Iowa (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Iowa has leaned even further into their identity this year- their defense and special teams remain excellent while their offense is horrible. Starting QB Cade McNamara looks to be out for the year which only compounds their offensive struggles, and they looked awful after he left the game against Michigan State. Purdue is a lot better than their 2-3 record would indicate and they should be road favorites here.
Purdue +2.5 -110 (3 units)
Alabama @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Loyal readers will remember that I bet Texas A&M +8.5 in this matchup in the preseason. That’s obviously great value now, but I’ll still put an extra unit on the Aggies at +2.5. I think they could be the best team in the SEC West- they’re one of a few teams in the country that has the level of athletes that Alabama does, and their quarterbacking situation is better than I feared. Alabama’s problems are well documented and I think they should be small underdogs here.
Texas A&M +2.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech @ Baylor (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
Baylor pulled off one of the greatest comebacks you’ll ever see against UCF last week, as they won after being down 28 points in the 3rd quarter. I do have some pretty fundamental questions about the Bears, if you exclude the last one and a half quarters against UCF their offense has been horrid this year. Texas Tech is easily the best 2-3 team in the nation and has been extremely unlucky this year.
Texas Tech +1 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 5 2023
Week 5 was light on big upsets but heavy on entertaining games. Ole Miss/LSU took the cake for me- the two teams combined for 1,343 yards, severely damaging LSU’s SEC title hopes.
Michigan (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Texas (+2)
Ohio State (-1)
Washington (-1)
Oregon (+1)
Notre Dame (-1)
Texas A&M (+4)
LSU (+1)
Florida State (-1)
Alabama (+2)
Clemson (-1)
Oklahoma (+1)
Tennessee (+1)
Penn State (+1)
Miami (+1)
USC (-9)
Oregon State (+8)
North Carolina (-1)
Louisville (+2)
Kentucky (+9)
UCLA (+1)
Duke (+1)
Ole Miss (-3)
Wisconsin
Michigan claims the top spot in my ratings for the first time ever. The Wolverines’ defense has been outstanding. They haven’t played an offense worth a damn yet, but they’ve allowed 30 points through 5 games. Unfortunately the Big Ten is so shallow this year that they won’t play a top 50 team until November. I thought Texas A&M would be a disaster without Connor Weigman but they really impressed me against Arkansas and they’ll be SEC West favorites if they beat Alabama this weekend.
Moving Up
I was a week early on Bowling Green- I bet on the Falcons last week against Ohio, this was the week they broke out as they shocked Georgia Tech as a three touchdown underdog. Colorado looked very impressive in a loss to USC, I still have serious questions about their line play but they showed real grit to nearly come back from three scores down. Purdue dominated Illinois in a game that I thought would be a coin flip, they might be the second best team in the Big Ten West despite being 2-3.
Moving Down
Nebraska was ground into a fine paste by Michigan. I was hopeful that their offense would be better without Jeff Sims but it has been paleolithic at best so far this season. San Diego State is off to a shocking 1-4 start and Air Force ran for 287 yards against them this week. UMass has cemented themselves as one of the worst teams in FBS after allowing 50 points at home to a moribund Arkansas State team.
College Football Picks Week 5 2023
Last week was another disaster as neither FIU nor Bowling Green were close to covering. We march on to week 5 looking to turn things around.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Total: -15.28 units
West Virginia @ TCU (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
It was a shock when West Virginia did not fire Neal Brown last year, but that decision has paid off as the Mountaineers are off to a 3-1 start. The defense has been a particular highlight, holding the hyped Texas Tech offense to 13 points last week. TCU has looked good since their season opening loss to Colorado and is just outside my top 25 right now. The Horned Frogs are decent, but I think West Virginia might be the most underrated team in the country and like the Mountaineers here.
West Virginia +12 -110 (2 units)
West Virginia ML +370 (1 unit)
Arkansas State @ UMass (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
These teams are both among the ten worst in FBS. I expected to say that about UMass but not about Arkansas State- to call the Red Wolves’ defense a sieve would be an insult to sieves. They did pull off a shock win against Southern Miss last week but still allowed a frightening 449 yards. Loyal readers who bet my preseason bets have been following along with UMass all season- the Minutemen are better than they record as they outgained Eastern Michigan and New Mexico each of the last two weeks and lost both.
UMass -1 -110 (2 units)
Utah State @ Connecticut (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Utah State all season and still will continue to do so here. The Aggies can’t stop a nosebleed- the only FBS team to not go for 400 yards against them this season is the anemic Iowa offense. They look to be one of the worst teams in a bad Mountain West. Connecticut sucks too, but Utah State should not be a 6 point road favorite over any FBS team.
UConn +6 -110 (2 units)
Georgia @ Auburn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Georgia has fallen a good bit in my ratings since the preseason as their offense looks to have taken a pretty significant step back. New QB Carson Beck has been simply OK, and the Dawgs have had the most success running the ball between the tackles. That will be tough against a stout Auburn front seven. I was amazed that Michigan State transfer Payton Throne landed as an SEC quarterback- and it shows, as Auburn’s offense looks to be from the Paleolithic Era. However their defense is one of the best in the sport and they can keep this game within two touchdowns.
Auburn +14.5 -115 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 4 2023
This fall is shaping up to be quite a bit different than recent college football seasons. In recent years there has been a pretty significant gap between the top few teams and everyone else- Georgia was two touchdowns better than the #10 team for most of last year. This year, the top 10 is much more even and we have a much better chance of a surprise national champion.
Top 25
Georgia
Michigan (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Washington (+1)
Texas (+5)
Notre Dame
Oregon (+5)
USC (-4)
Florida State (-1)
LSU (-4)
Clemson (-2)
Texas A&M (+4)
Alabama (-2)
Oklahoma (-1)
Tennessee (-1)
Penn State (-1)
Miami
North Carolina (+1)
Florida (-1)
Utah (+4)
Ole Miss (+2)
Louisville (+7)
UCLA (-1)
Duke (+4)
Wisconsin (+2)
Oregon was extremely impressive in their domination of Colorado, the 35-0 halftime score doesn’t even express the full extent of their dominance. The Ducks travel to Eugene in two weeks for what will be the most anticipated Pac-12 game in years. Florida State is now -150 to make the playoff after their win over Clemson. Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk though as they’re yet to face 3 of my top 25 teams (Duke, Miami and Florida). Louisville has been a pleasant surprise in Jeff Brohm’s first season and gets a big visit from Notre Dame next weekend.
Moving Up
Ohio looks to have reclaimed their spot as one of the best teams in the MAC as they thrashed Bowling Green. An Ohio/Toledo rematch looks likely in the MAC title game as the Bobcats for their elusive first MAC title since 1968. Another team I bet against who looked great was Liberty, the Flames are 4-0 and will be favored in every remaining game. Texas A&M completely shut down Auburn, holding the Tigers to 56 yards passing. Unfortunately QB Connor Weigman looks to be done for the year but backup Max Johnson looked quite good in relief.
Moving Down
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Colorado was my biggest loser this week. The Buffaloes’ poor line came back to bite them this week as Shedeur Sanders had no time in the pocket and their fairytale season came screeching to a halt. No team has underperformed preseason expectations more than Baylor who looked terrible against Texas- I think the calls for Dave Aranda’s job are warranted. Boston College looked competent against Florida State but that all went out the window in a 56-28 thrashing at the hands of Louisville.
College Football Picks Week 4 2023
I almost had a big week, as Old Dominion ML +440 nearly cashed. The Monarchs led by 17 in the second quarter and got to -500 on the live line at one point. However, they couldn’t do anything on offense in the second half and ultimately lost by 3.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Total: -9.97 units
Liberty @ FIU (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
FIU has been very good to me this year and I am continuing to ride the Golden Panthers train. I now see them as a top 100 team which is quite an accomplishment considering how much of a disaster this program was when Butch Davis left at the end of 2021. People are acting as if Liberty is far and away better than every other team in CUSA- they are the best team in the league but the gap is not as big as others might think. I think FIU has a chance at this upset.
FIU +10 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +320 (1 unit)
Ohio @ Bowling Green (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ohio generated a lot of headlines with their 10-7 win over Iowa State last weekend. Ohio’s defense is quite good, but I think this result speaks more as to Iowa State’s offensive ineptitude than anything else. Bowling Green is a top 100 team that should not be a 13 point home dog against any conference opponent. The Falcons are a potential bowl team that will hang tough here.
Bowling Green +13 -110 (2 units)
Bowling Green ML +400 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
I am continuing to bet against Wake Forest- the Demon Deacons are just not the same team without Sam Hartman. They looked horrible last week against Old Dominion and I think they’re the most overrated team in the Power Five. Unfortunately I am really late to this one- this line opened Georgia Tech +8 and I was all over the Yellow Jackets there, I still like them here but not for as big a play.
Georgia Tech +4 -112 (2 units)
Arizona @ Stanford (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
My model is very high on Arizona- I have the Wildcats as a top 40 team, a good 10-20 spots above any other computer system I’ve seen. I really liked Stanford in the preseason but they’ve been a big disappointment this year and the over I bet on their win total isn’t looking so hot anymore. This is another big missed opportunity as it would’ve been a bigger play at Arizona -8, which is where this opened, but I still like the ‘Cats here.
Arizona -11.5 -110 (1 unit)
FIU ML/Bowling Green ML +2000 (0.1 units)