College Football Picks Week 4 2023
I almost had a big week, as Old Dominion ML +440 nearly cashed. The Monarchs led by 17 in the second quarter and got to -500 on the live line at one point. However, they couldn’t do anything on offense in the second half and ultimately lost by 3.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Total: -9.97 units
Liberty @ FIU (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
FIU has been very good to me this year and I am continuing to ride the Golden Panthers train. I now see them as a top 100 team which is quite an accomplishment considering how much of a disaster this program was when Butch Davis left at the end of 2021. People are acting as if Liberty is far and away better than every other team in CUSA- they are the best team in the league but the gap is not as big as others might think. I think FIU has a chance at this upset.
FIU +10 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +320 (1 unit)
Ohio @ Bowling Green (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ohio generated a lot of headlines with their 10-7 win over Iowa State last weekend. Ohio’s defense is quite good, but I think this result speaks more as to Iowa State’s offensive ineptitude than anything else. Bowling Green is a top 100 team that should not be a 13 point home dog against any conference opponent. The Falcons are a potential bowl team that will hang tough here.
Bowling Green +13 -110 (2 units)
Bowling Green ML +400 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
I am continuing to bet against Wake Forest- the Demon Deacons are just not the same team without Sam Hartman. They looked horrible last week against Old Dominion and I think they’re the most overrated team in the Power Five. Unfortunately I am really late to this one- this line opened Georgia Tech +8 and I was all over the Yellow Jackets there, I still like them here but not for as big a play.
Georgia Tech +4 -112 (2 units)
Arizona @ Stanford (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
My model is very high on Arizona- I have the Wildcats as a top 40 team, a good 10-20 spots above any other computer system I’ve seen. I really liked Stanford in the preseason but they’ve been a big disappointment this year and the over I bet on their win total isn’t looking so hot anymore. This is another big missed opportunity as it would’ve been a bigger play at Arizona -8, which is where this opened, but I still like the ‘Cats here.
Arizona -11.5 -110 (1 unit)
FIU ML/Bowling Green ML +2000 (0.1 units)