College Football Picks Week 7 2023
I broke even last week but it could have been a bit better. Both of my winners (Arizona and Texas Tech) covered by multiple touchdowns while my losers (Purdue and Texas A&M) both had real shots to cover. I also got my first preseason bet right as Texas A&M covered the +8.5 lookahead line I bet in August even as they failed to cover the +2.5 line I bet last week.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Total: -7.43 units
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Iowa’s offense is so bad it defies logic. This was the case even before starting QB Cade McNamara went down with a season ending injury, but has been magnified since then- backup QB went 6/21 for 110 yards last weke. This game is going to be a total slugfest with bad weather- the total is in the mid 30s. I think that Wisconsin is a clear play here- their offense has improved significantly since their early loss to Washington State and they are multiple touchdowns better than a one dimensional Iowa squad.
Wisconsin -10 -110 (3 units)
Arizona @ Washington State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I have been all over the Arizona train for the last two weeks and am continuing it here. Backup QB Noah Fifita has started the last two and has been a revelation, throwing for 8 TDs and 2 INTs against Washington and USC. The Wildcats are up to the 30s in my ratings, their highest perch in half a decade. Washington State has always been a bit worse than their AP ranking would suggest and these teams are pretty even in my book.
Arizona +8 -110 (2 units)
BYU @ TCU (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Most of the games I bet, I have a pretty good guess for what the Vegas line will be and have an inkling in advance what the Vegas line will be. This was not one of those games- I was sure this line was going to be in the double digits and was shocked to see it at 5. TCU had every single bounce go their way last year and this year has seen the other side of close game variance, BYU is a decent team but TCU is not far outside my top 25.
TCU -5 -110 (2 units)
Akron @ Central Michigan (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I highlighted Central Michigan in my ratings post this week as a team on the downswing- the Chippewas must be the worst 3-3 team in the country, they just got evaporated by a bad Buffalo team. I’ve been bullish on Akron all year and they are really unlucky to only have 1 win, most notably they lost a 4OT game to Indiana. CMU deserves to be viewed as a bottom tier MAC team.
Akron +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
San Jose State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
New Mexico is really bad- definitely among the bottom 10 teams in FBS, if not the bottom 5. However, I don’t really think San Jose State should be a touchdown road favorite over almost any FBS team. The Spartans have fallen off significantly since their miracle 2020 season and are now a bottom 25 team in FBS.
New Mexico +8 -110 (1 unit)