College Football Ratings Week 13 2023
I had a great time in Ann Arbor for Ohio State/Michigan this weekend. Even though I grew up in Michigan I haven’t been to the Big House that many times and this was my first OSU/Michigan game. The Wolverines really look like a complete team- they were never particularly explosive, but they didn’t need to be. I was particularly impressed by their final drive where they chewed 7 minutes off the clock, repeatedly running the ball effectively in 22 or 13 personnel.
Elsewhere, chalk held once again and we enter championship weekend with an unprecedented 4 undefeated teams. Maybe next weekend we will see our first big upsets of the season.
Top 25
Oregon
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Michigan
Notre Dame (+2)
Alabama
LSU (-2)
Penn State
Oklahoma (+1)
Missouri (+3)
Louisville (-1)
Arizona (+5)
Texas (+2)
Texas A&M (+4)
Kansas (+5)
Clemson (-3)
Florida State (-3)
Washington (+1)
Oregon State (-7)
Tennessee (+1)
SMU (+3)
Florida
Iowa State (+13)
Maryland (-1)
Miami (+2)
Oregon increased their lead at the top with a dominating win over Oregon State. I’m pretty unique in computer models in having the Ducks #1 overall (more on that in my picks this week) and their margin is growing. Bo Nix is completing nearly 80% of his passes and the Ducks are physical on both lines. Missouri rises into the top 10 of my ratings for the first time in nearly a decade. The Tigers are perhaps an interception against Georgia away from playing Alabama for a berth in the playoff this weekend. Iowa State pulled off an extremely impressive win over a good Kansas State team in the snow and has rescued what looked like a lost season in September.
Moving Up
Virginia Tech has been in the wilderness for a few years now but dominated rivals Virginia on the road to reach bowl eligibility. The Hokies surpassed any reasonable expectation this year and I like them as a sleeper pick for 2024. No one noticed, because it’s the MAC, but Bowling Green has had an excellent second half of the season. They finished on a 5-1 stretch with the lone loss being by one point to league champions Toledo. Colorado hasn’t featured in this section since September, but was shockingly competitive in a tight road loss to Utah without Shedeur Sanders.
Moving Down
I have a feeling that Navy is going to deeply regret firing Ken Niumatalolo in a few year’s time. They are 5-6 after a disastrous loss to SMU where they allowed 50 in the first half, and are quite a bit worse than their record indicates. Stanford might be the worst team in the Power Five, they got extremely lucky to win 3 FBS games and got predictably vaporized by Notre Dame. Oregon State was the latest victim of the demolition machine that is this year’s Oregon team in a non-competitive 31-7 loss.