College Football Picks Week 10 2023
After a few unlucky weeks, I’ll count this one as a lucky one. Rice was down big before coming back to cover against Tulane. Pitt got evaporated by Notre Dame, allowing 58 points. I’ll gladly take a split between those two games.
I took a long look at my preseason bets today, and the +0.29 units figure you see below represents my best guess as to what the current mark to market value of my bets is. By far the biggest decision remaining is on New Mexico State- I have 2 units on them to make the CUSA title game at +1000. They beat Louisiana Tech this week and are now about a coin flip to make the title game. Here’s a table with all of my preseason bets and their current state.
Preseason: +0.29 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Total: -14.6 units
Charlotte @ Tulsa (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
These teams are both exceptionally bad. This is nothing new for Charlotte, who has been a sub-100 team for almost their entire time in FBS, but it’s a step back for a Tulsa team that was in the top 25 3 years ago. Recent results lead me to believe that Tulsa is a good bit worse than Charlotte- they have lost their last two games by a combined 111-20. Their defense is a sieve and I think that Charlotte gets their second FBS win of the year here.
Charlotte +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Western Kentucky @ UTEP (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
Western Kentucky’s season has fizzled out quite a bit- the Hilltoppers had a lot of buzz in the preseason but have fallen to 4-4. UTEP has proven an ability to beat the dregs of FBS and I don’t think they should be double digit dogs at home here. WKU is New Mexico State’s biggest competition to make the conference title game so I’m really doubling down here, but I do quite like the Miners.
UTEP +11 -110 (3 units)
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
The MAC is a strange conference where no team really has a fundamental recruiting advantage. If there are any “haves” in this league, it would be Toledo and Northern Illinois. The Huskies have shown this in recent games- they have one of the most talented rosters in the conference and have ridden it to three straight wins. Central Michigan is a sneaky bad team that I bet against a few weeks ago and I’m picking against them once again here.
Northern Illinois -2 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ Baylor (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
While both of these teams have been disappointments this year, Baylor has been the bigger one. The Bears are two years removed from a BIg 12 title and will now be very lucky to make a bowl. It’s a strange thing to say about a team with a Hail Mary win, but Houston has been a bit unlucky this year and I think they’re better than the dregs of the Big 12.
Houston +4.5 -112 (2 units)
Tulane @ East Carolina (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I faded Tulane last week against Rice and am looking to do so again. The Green Wave are skirting by a bit on their reputation and lucky win/loss record- they’re very clearly a step behind the best teams in the AAC (SMU and Memphis). The problem here is that East Carolina is absolutely horrible. Still, the Green Wave are not good enough to be a two touchdown road favorite.
East Carolina +16.5 -108 (2 units)
South Alabama @ Troy (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
These two teams are expected to dominate the Sun Belt West for years to come. They were both double digit win teams last year, with the division being determined by a 10-6 Troy win. I think South Alabama can get revenge this year- the Jaguars have some confusing losses, but they’ve shown incredible upside, like they did in a blowout win over Oklahoma State. I’m doubling down here (I also have a South Alabama to win the Sun Belt West ticket) but like the Jaguars here.
South Alabama +6 -110 (1 unit)