College Football Picks Week 5 2023
Last week was another disaster as neither FIU nor Bowling Green were close to covering. We march on to week 5 looking to turn things around.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Total: -15.28 units
West Virginia @ TCU (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
It was a shock when West Virginia did not fire Neal Brown last year, but that decision has paid off as the Mountaineers are off to a 3-1 start. The defense has been a particular highlight, holding the hyped Texas Tech offense to 13 points last week. TCU has looked good since their season opening loss to Colorado and is just outside my top 25 right now. The Horned Frogs are decent, but I think West Virginia might be the most underrated team in the country and like the Mountaineers here.
West Virginia +12 -110 (2 units)
West Virginia ML +370 (1 unit)
Arkansas State @ UMass (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
These teams are both among the ten worst in FBS. I expected to say that about UMass but not about Arkansas State- to call the Red Wolves’ defense a sieve would be an insult to sieves. They did pull off a shock win against Southern Miss last week but still allowed a frightening 449 yards. Loyal readers who bet my preseason bets have been following along with UMass all season- the Minutemen are better than they record as they outgained Eastern Michigan and New Mexico each of the last two weeks and lost both.
UMass -1 -110 (2 units)
Utah State @ Connecticut (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Utah State all season and still will continue to do so here. The Aggies can’t stop a nosebleed- the only FBS team to not go for 400 yards against them this season is the anemic Iowa offense. They look to be one of the worst teams in a bad Mountain West. Connecticut sucks too, but Utah State should not be a 6 point road favorite over any FBS team.
UConn +6 -110 (2 units)
Georgia @ Auburn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Georgia has fallen a good bit in my ratings since the preseason as their offense looks to have taken a pretty significant step back. New QB Carson Beck has been simply OK, and the Dawgs have had the most success running the ball between the tackles. That will be tough against a stout Auburn front seven. I was amazed that Michigan State transfer Payton Throne landed as an SEC quarterback- and it shows, as Auburn’s offense looks to be from the Paleolithic Era. However their defense is one of the best in the sport and they can keep this game within two touchdowns.
Auburn +14.5 -115 (1 unit)