College Football Picks Week 11 2023
Last week was my best of the season. I got some good luck as Charlotte and Houston both covered in OT wins and UTEP covered by a few points. The real success was in my future bets where I cashed UMass over 2 wins as they picked up their third win of the season against Merrimack. I also cashed my preseason bets on Louisiana Tech and Kansas and got a key win from Stanford as a +14 dog.
Here’s the update on my preseason bets. I have an enormous amount of exposure to New Mexico State as I will cash my 10/1 futures bet on them if they can beat Western Kentucky this weekend.
Preseason: +4.66 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Total: -4.14 units
Purdue @ Minnesota (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
The Big Ten West may look like a trash heap to most observers but I think there is some good value to be found in betting on these games. Purdue is 2-7 but has been a lot better than their record- they have had some horrific close game luck and have played by far the toughest schedule of any team in the division. I think they’re a good bit better than a lucky Minnesota team.
Purdue +1 -110 (3 units)
Texas Tech @ Kansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Kansas has been one of my money teams all season- my Kansas over 6 wins bet just cashed as the Jayhawks are now 7-2. I’m continuing to ride them here- they’ve just entered my top 25 for the first time all season and while Texas Tech is better than their 4-5 record would suggest, they’re a good bit behind Kansas.
Kansas -3.5 -112 (2 units)
Rice @ UTSA (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Rice is putting together their best season in many years, and if it were not for a shocking loss to UConn they’d be a near lock to make a bowl game. They’ve lost back to back close games to Tulane and SMU, who I think are the two best teams in the AAC. UTSA is a decent team but Rice has been undervalued all season and I’m on them once again here.
Rice +13 -110 (2 units)
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been fading Texas State all year and it’s been one of my worst decisions of the season. The Bobcats were projected for 4.5 wins and are already 6-3. I clearly haven’t learned from my mistakes as I’m on Coastal Carolina here- the Chanticleers were expected to falter after all-world QB Grayson McCall went down with an injury but have instead won 4 games in a row. My model still thinks Texas State is not that talented and has been playing above their heads all season.
Coastal Carolina +1 -112 (2 units)
Miami @ Florida State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Florida State has flown a bit under the radar in recent weeks as they’ve been playing the soft section of their ACC schedule. Miami’s struggles this year have been well chronicled but underneath all the poor game management decisions I think there is a lot of talent on the Hurricanes roster. They can give archrivals Florida State a bit of a game here.
Miami +14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
Fellow Michiganders know how big of a rivalry this is- quite arguably the biggest in the MAC. I’ve been fading Central Michigan a bit and will continue to do so here. They were quite lucky to survive a furious Northern Illinois comeback this year and Western has turned things around massively after a slow start to the season.
Western Michigan -3.5 -110 (1 unit)