College Football Picks Week 3 2024
Week 2 was a mixed bag where I finished close to 0 units for the second week in a row. I had some easy covers (Washington State -1.5, Boise State +18.5) and one really lucky cover (Baylor +15.5). Unfortunately most of my losses were not close, UTSA -3 against Texas State was a particularly bad loss. Texas State has become a bit of a bogey team for me, my model really does not know how to handle their unusual transfer-heavy approach to roster construction.
In addition to the picks below, loyal readers will remember that I bet Arizona +8 against Kansas State as part of my preseason bets. That line is now Arizona +6.5- I would’ve considered a unit there if I didn’t already have money on the game at a better price.
Week 1: -0.38 units
Week 2: -0.34 units
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Oklahoma State is ranked 13th in the AP top 25, which is a complete joke. The Cowboys allowed 600 yards of offense to a mediocre Arkansas team last week and needed a comedy of late Arkansas errors to win. The most concerning part of the game was the complete inability to get star RB Ollie Gordon going. Gordon was supposed to be a Heisman front runner but was held to 49 yards on 17 carries. Tulsa is a mediocre G5 team, but they should not be three touchdown home underdogs here.
Tulsa +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Vanderbilt @ Georgia State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Vanderbilt has been one of the surprises of the season so far. They beat Virginia Tech as a double digit underdog in Week 1 and scored so many points last week against Alcorn State that they ran out of fireworks at the stadium. It’s a massive leap forward for a program that is only three years removed from getting demolished at home by East Tennessee State. Georgia State is a team in transition after HC Shawn Elliott left in the middle of the offseason and struggled to get past Chattanooga last week. Vandy should roll here.
Vanderbilt -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Appalachian State @ East Carolina (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
App State was supposed to be a contender for the G5 playoff spot but looked awful against Clemson last week. It is one thing to lose to Clemson but quite another to allow touchdowns on each of the first 8 drives of the game. On the other hand, ECU is 2-0, already matching their win total from last year’s disastrous 2-10 season. The Pirates were hilariously unlucky to go 2-10 last year and should make a bowl game this year. App State looked so suspect last week that I don’t think they should be a road favorite here.
East Carolina +3.5 -110 (2 units)
Ole Miss @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
Ole Miss has played absolutely nobody to start the season, although they have won their two games by a combined score of 128-3. Loyal readers will remember that I was very low on the Rebels in the preseason and this is my first real opportunity to fade them. Wake Forest has an experienced QB in Hank Bachmeier and can hang in there against the Rebels.
Wake Forest +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado @ Colorado State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I tried to set realistic expectations for Colorado this season, but they have failed to even meet those through two games. A 28-10 loss to Nebraska does not really tell the full story- the Buffaloes were out of the game from the jump. Colorado State, a newly minted Pac-12 program, kept this game close last year and should be able to do so again here.
Colorado State +9.5 -110 (1 unit)