College Football Picks Week 12 2022
Last week was a mixed bag. Boston College won outright as a +750 underdog which was fantastic. However, there was some bad luck in the other games. South Florida lost by 18 as a +17.5 underdog after electing to go for 2 down 18. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham got injured and the Cardinals were not competitive with Clemson once he went down.
In addition to the bets below, I also have 2 units on UCLA +3.5 against USC this weekend, which I bet in the preseason.
Preseason: +1.88 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
Week 11: -0.72 units
2022 Total: +5.02 units
Duke @ Pittsburgh (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Duke is having a fantastic season- I thought they had almost no shot at a bowl, but they’re 7-3 and will make a bowl easily in Mike Elko’s first year. However, I still think the talent level on their roster is pretty poor compared to Pitt’s. The Panthers’ defense has really stepped up in recent weeks and their OT loss to Tennessee looks better and better as the season goes along. I think that these teams are still in pretty different weight classes.
Pittsburgh -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Kansas State @ West Virginia (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
Kansas State has had a very weird few weeks. They’ve shown flashes of being a top 5 team with blowout wins over Kansas State and Baylor, but have also lost close games to TCU and Texas. In total, they look like a top 10 team. West Virginia just fired their AD and it seems very likely that head coach Neal Brown’s time in Morgantown is coming to an end. Even in their wins, the Mountaineers defense has been porous and the K-State rushing attack will have their way here.
Kansas State -7 -110 (2 units)
Cincinnati @ Temple (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Cincinnati has had a weird season- everyone forgot about them after they lost to Arkansas in week 1. They’re now 8-2, but they’ve performed quite poorly against the spread and haven’t dominated the bad teams they’ve played. Temple proved in their win over USF that they’re far from the bottom of the AAC and I think they can keep this within two touchdowns.
Temple +17.5 -110 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech @ Liberty (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Liberty had a chance to break into the CFP top 25 for the first time in program history but lost as a 14 point favorite to UConn last week. However, for maybe the first time in the history of college football, UConn may be a better team than Virginia Tech. The Hokies have been downright awful this year and got blown off the field by Duke last week. Liberty should roll here.
Liberty -9.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 11 2022
Week 11 was light in terms of huge headline results but there was a lot of fun under the surface. LSU won the SEC West with a big win against Arkansas while Texas A&M clinched last place in the division with their loss to Auburn. This coming week will tell us a lot more about conference races- the top 4 teams in the Pac-12 collide, the Big Ten West is open for the taking and Kansas State looks to sow up a spot in the Big 12 title game.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee (+1)
Penn State (+4)
Alabama (-2)
Kansas State (+1)
Florida State (+5)
LSU (-3)
Texas (-3)
Oregon
TCU (+8)
Utah (+6)
Pittsburgh (+9)
Oregon State (+6)
USC (+2)
Baylor (-3)
Illinois (-3)
Notre Dame (-7)
UCLA (-10)
Mississippi State (-4)
Florida (+9)
Texas Tech (+2)
Louisville (-8)
Ole Miss (+14)
I think that Penn State has gone too far under the radar this season. They lost to Michigan and Ohio State by multiple scores but have destroyed almost every other team on their schedule. The Nittany Lions should finish the regular season 10-2 and are likely looking at an Orange Bowl bid and potential top 5 preseason ranking next year. Florida State has pummeled Georgia Tech, Miami and Syracuse in their last three games and I’m fairly confident they’re the best team in the ACC. They have enough talent on their roster that they should be the league favorites next year. Florida is doing an admirable job of keeping their head above water in BIlly Napier’s first year and figures to have a solid 8-5 type season with a January bowl.
Moving Up
Arizona (76th → 43rd) got their biggest win in years on the road against UCLA on Saturday night. The Wildcats have a feisty quarterback in Washington State transfer Jayden De Laura and are much improved from last year’s 1-11 outfit. Navy (96th → 74th) fell behind early against Notre Dame but nearly came back to win. Some questions have been asked about Ken Niumatalolo’s job in Annapolis but after this performance, a win over Army should be enough for him to stay. Vanderbilt (100th → 80th) picked up their first SEC win since 2019 and finally looks competitive with the bottom end of the conference.
Moving Down
The wheels have completely fallen off for Syracuse (50th → 86th). Florida State vaporized them 38-3 and the Orange now travel to face a tricky Wake Forest team as they look to end a 4 game losing streak. The same can be said about Maryland (38th → 63rd) who was in my top 20 not long ago but failed to show up against Penn State. Virginia (65th → 94th) threw two pick sixes on the first two plays of the game against Pitt. The Cavaliers will face rival Virginia Tech on Thanksgiving Saturday as both teams look to end a horrible season with a win over a rival.
College Football Picks Week 11 2022
Last week was an absolute dream as I posted my best week of the year. The highlight was LSU winning outright as a +400 underdog. The Tigers were my first moneyline underdog to hit in a few weeks and brings my total return from betting moneylines this year back into the black. Nebraska also jumped out to an early lead and held on to cover +14.5 against Minnesota, and the Oregon State defense mounted a valiant end of game stand to cover +4.5.
I cashed two more winners in my preseason bets this week. Bowling Green is now 5-4 so over 4.5 wins -145 is a winner. I also bet Notre Dame +2.5 against Clemson in August and the Fighting Irish covered easily.
Preseason: +0.99 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
2022 Total: +4.85 units
Louisville @ Clemson (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Clemson all year and am continuing to sell more here. The Tigers kept winning games in strange fashions all year and should have lost to one or multiple of Florida State, Wake Forest and Syracuse. Combine the Tigers with a Louisville team that I’ve been high on all year and this is a very clear bet for me. I’m also doubling down on my risk here as my Clemson Under 10.5 wins will hit as well if Louisville wins.
Louisville +8 -110 (4 units)
Louisville ML +240 (1 unit)
Boston College @ NC State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Boston College has been positively awful this season. Their win over Louisville is one of the most surprising results of the season as their offensive line is one of the worst in FBS. However, NC State should not be a 20 point favorite over many Power Five teams. The Wolfpack have a fantastic defense with multiple future NFL players. However, their QB play has been lacking since Devin Leary got hurt and they cannot run up the scoreboard. This reeks of a boring 23-13 type game where Boston College is never able to get going on offense but covers easily.
Boston College +20 -110 (3 units)
Boston College ML +750 (0.5 units)
SMU @ South Florida (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
South Florida let go of head coach Jeff Scott on Sunday in an unsurprising move. The Bulls had just one win over FBS opposition in his two and a half years at the helm. While they are the worst team in the conference, I don’t think they should be getting two and a half touchdowns at home against an average AAC team in SMU. The Mustangs put up 77 points against Houston last week but have one of the worst defenses in FBS. The total in this game is set at an explosive 72 and I expect some fireworks, but South Florida should be able to keep this within a few touchdowns.
South Florida +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Louisville ML/Boston College ML +2790 (0.2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 10 2022
This past Saturday was an all-time classic. Georgia ended up having very little trouble with Tennessee in the most anticipated game of the weekend. The real fun though was in the night session, where LSU beat Alabama to take control of the SEC West and Notre Dame handed Clemson their first loss of the season.
Top 25
Georgia (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Michigan (+2)
Alabama (-1)
Tennessee (-1)
LSU (+1)
Texas (+1)
Kansas State (-2)
Penn State (+1)
UCLA (+3)
Oregon
Notre Dame (+9)
Florida State (+2)
Baylor (+5)
Illinois (-6)
Louisville (+6)
Mississippi State (-3)
USC
Utah (-7)
TCU (-4)
Oregon State (-4)
Iowa (+22)
Pittsburgh (+22)
Kansas (+18)
Texas Tech (+6)
We have a new #1 in my ratings as Georgia has taken the top spot back from Ohio State. The Bulldogs have around a two in three chance to make it to the SEC championship game undefeated and might be a lock for the playoff. Louisville has turned their season around and dominated a solid James Madison team on Saturday. The Cardinals have the chance for a program-defining win on the road against Clemson this weekend. Iowa has been much maligned for their offensive ineptitude this year but their defense is maybe the best in the country and they showed it in a 24-3 win over Purdue.
Moving Up
I’ve never seen a team jump so much from a loss as Northwestern (109th → 66th). The Wildcats played a crazy game against Ohio State where they lost 21-7 in a windstorm. Northwestern actually outgained Ohio State and could’ve won the game if not for going 0/4 on 4th down. Pittsburgh (44th → 22nd) is playing fantastic defense and did not allow Syracuse to score a touchdown on Saturday. The Panthers’ OT loss to Tennessee looks much better than it did at the time and they should be favorites in all 3 remaining games. Michigan State (83rd → 62nd) played their best game of the season and beat Illinois on the road. The Spartans look likely to sneak into a bowl game as wins over Indiana and Rutgers will get them there.
Moving Down
James Madison (55th → 79th) was in the 30s in my ratings a month ago but has crashed back down to earth. The Dukes have exceeded expectations for their first season in FBS but their lower scholarship count is starting to set in as the rigors of a full season take their toll. Purdue (24th → 46th) was a darling of my model early in the season and was in my top 10 at one point. They still could win the Big Ten West, but their blowout loss to Iowa will make it a lot tougher. South Florida (88th → 104th) suffered a blowout loss to fellow AAC bottom dweller Temple. The Bulls fired head coach Jeff Scott after a disastrous 2.5 years that saw them win only a single game against FBS competition.
College Football Picks Week 10 2022
Preseason: -0.61 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
2022 Total: -6.11 units
Last week was a mixed bag once again. East Carolina won on a last minute field goal and Oregon dominated Cal by a lot more than the 18 point margin showed. However I was way off on Auburn and Fresno State needed a miracle onside kick to beat San Diego State outright.
I cashed one winner from my preseason bets this weekend (Georgia -15.5 against Florida) and one loser (FIU under 3 wins +100). The FIU bet is frustrating, they should’ve lost to a horrible Bryant team in week 1. I do have to give some credit to the Golden Panthers though as they are a lot better than I thought they were going to be going into the season.
I would also note that I would be playing Notre Dame +4.5 this week at home against Clemson if I hadn’t already bet this game in the preseason. I think it is instructive of how overrated Clemson is in the public perception that the line was Clemson -2.5 in August and despite Clemson being 8-0 and Notre Dame being 5-3, it has only moved two points.
Minnesota @ Nebraska (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Every Sunday I look at the week’s schedule and guess what all the lines will be without looking at my model or the actual lines. I’m normally within 3 points and almost always within 6 but I was absolutely floored when I saw this line, and my model agrees. Minnesota is decent, not the top 10 team I thought they were a month ago, but solidly the second best team in the Big Ten West. Nebraska is not a dumpster fire though- they are a middle of the pack FBS team. Minnesota is not good enough to justify this line- I know that Nebraska has an interim coach, but these teams are pretty even on talent and I can’t buy that Minnesota should be a 2 touchdown road favorite.
Nebraska +14.5 +100 (4 units)
Nebraska ML +500 (1 unit)
Alabama @ LSU (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’ve been a buyer of LSU all season and will continue to buy them here as I think this spread is pretty rich. I have Alabama 3rd and LSU 7th in my ratings, there is a big gap from the top 5 to everyone else but not enough to justify this sort of spread. LSU is one of the few teams in the country that has the athletes to compete with Alabama and Jayden Daniels has improved tremendously at the QB position in recent weeks. I think that LSU can keep this game pretty close.
LSU +13.5 -115 (2 units)
LSU ML +400 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ Washington (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
This is going to be a fantastic game between two solid, up and coming teams who play very fun football. I have been a buyer of Oregon State all year and it has worked well for me, I just need one more win from the 6-2 Beavers to cash my over 6.5 wins ticket. They have beaten every team they’ve played outside the top 15. Washington has regressed a bit in recent weeks with a loss to Arizona State and a closer than desired win over Cal. I think that Oregon State is marginally better than Washington so like betting them as a 4.5 point underdog in Seattle.
Oregon State +4.5 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ SMU (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Houston has been a disappointment last year as they were talked about as a fringe playoff contender in the preseason and they are only 5-3. However they have beaten up on some bad teams recently and are actually now in the 30s in my rankings. They’re a much more talented team than SMU and while their results this season have been a bit subpar I think they’re a marginally better team.
Houston +3 -110 (1 unit)
Nebraska ML/LSU ML +3011 (0.2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 9 2022
As the calendar turns to November, conference title races around the country are heating up. It’s been an interesting mix this year with some conference races being led by the favorites (Clemson in the ACC, Oregon in the Pac-12) while others have seen surprise teams out front (TCU and Kansas State in the Big 12, Tulane in the American). As the season moves along I may have more posts previewing conference title races and the playoff picture as well.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Tennessee (+1)
Michigan (-1)
Kansas State (+6)
LSU (-1)
Texas (-1)
Illinois
Penn State (+1)
Oregon (-3)
Utah (-2)
UCLA (+8)
Mississippi State (-1)
Florida State (+4)
TCU (-1)
Oregon State (+3)
USC (-4)
Baylor (+10)
Clemson (+3)
Notre Dame (+18)
Louisville (+23)
Arkansas (+11)
Purdue (+3)
Texas A&M (+6)
Kansas State blew out Oklahoma State 48-0 in what has to be one of the most shocking results of the season just far. The Wildcats have been a solid team all year that has suffered some bad injury luck. A huge game with Texas looms this week, win that and they are quite likely to make the Big 12 title game. Baylor is another Big 12 team who is higher in my ratings than one would naively expect from their record. The depth of the Big 12 is so strong this year with 11 of the 12 teams in my top 50. Scott Satterfield looked dead to rights at Louisville earlier in the season but after a strange win over Wake Foest they re-enter my top 25.
Moving Up
North Texas (95th → 67th) went on the road and beat fellow CUSA favorite Western Kentucky by 4 scores. The Mean Green had a shaky start to the year but now look likely to face off with UTSA in the CUSA title game. Oklahoma (52nd → 33rd) is a lot better than I feared after a 3 game losing streak and controlled Iowa State easily in a win. UCF (44th → 26th) played a tremendous game to beat Cincinnati and is now my top G5 team in the country.
Moving Down
Oklahoma State (17th → 50th) failed to show up in a blowout loss to Kansas State. My model overreacts to blowouts in the short term so I think they’ve fallen a bit too far, but they’re nowhere near the playoff contender they were talked about as a few weeks ago. NC State (40th → 59th) squeaked past an awful Virginia Tech team. I don’t understand why they are ranked in the polls, they’ve been absolutely terrible since Devin Leary got hurt. Rice (108th → 123rd) was on the path to bowl eligibility and got destroyed at home by an awful Charlotte team that just fired its head coach.
College Football Picks Week 9 2022
Last week was tough, as I whiffed really badly on Purdue. Cincinnati was winning all game, but SMU got an unfortunate backdoor cover as they scored a touchdown and missed the two point conversion down 8. Syracuse covered easily and looked to have a shot at winning outright before some late penalties did them in.
Preseason: +0.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
2022 Total: -4.47 units
East Carolina @ BYU (Friday, 6 PM Central)
These are two teams whose seasons are moving in opposite directions. East Carolina’s season was looking a bit shaky after a weird loss to Navy, but they got a big over UCF last week and are looking to get back in the AAC title chase. BYU has been horrible the last few weeks, highlighted by a blowout loss to Liberty last week. I think East Carolina is the better team and should be favored here.
East Carolina +3.5 -110 (4 units)
San Diego State @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
San Diego State finished last year ranked, and while they were expected to regress last year, I don’t think anyone expected this. The Aztecs are a sub-100 team who won’t even sniff a bowl this year. Fresno State has been a bit disappointing this year as well but I don’t think the market realizes just how bad this San Diego State team is.
Fresno State -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Coastal Carolina has had a weird year where their record is quite good but they have some close wins against bad teams. Marshall has had quite an up-and-down year themselves with a win over Notre Dame in South Bend and a loss to a mediocre Bowling Green team. I think people give too much weight to Coastal Carolina’s record, which is a bit of a sham. Marshall is the marginally better team.
Marshall -1.5 -110 (2 units)
Oregon @ California (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Oregon has been hugely impressive since their week 1 demolition at the hands of Georgia. Bo Nix and the Ducks offense looked pretty much unstoppable last week against UCLA and the Ducks have to be considered the favorites to win the Pac-12 now. Cal, meanwhile, has been even worse than predicted this year with a horrible loss to Colorado a few weeks ago being the icing on the cake.
Oregon -14.5 -110 (2 units)
Arkansas @ Auburn (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I had decently high expectations for Arkansas in the preseason but they’ve failed to meet them. The Razorbacks are headed for a 6-6 type season, which is perfectly fine for them, but not as good as the top 10 heights they reached at times last year. Auburn is 3-4 but has played a brutal schedule featuring trips to Ole Miss and Georgia. Auburn is such a mess behind the scenes and because of that I don’t think people realize the product on the field is pretty decent, just the victims of a tough schedule.
Auburn +4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 8 2022
The ranks of the undefeateds are falling quickly with Syracuse, UCLA and Ole Miss picking up their first losses on Saturday. That leaves only 6 undefeated teams, with Georgia and Tennessee facing off in two weeks, while Ohio State and Michigan will square off in Columbus the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan
Tennessee
LSU (+5)
Texas (-1)
Oregon (-1)
Illinois (-1)
Utah
Penn State (+15)
Kansas State (+8)
Mississippi State (-1)
USC (+1)
TCU (-6)
Syracuse (+1)
Oklahoma State (+11)
Kentucky (-4)
Florida State (-1)
Oregon State (+7)
UCLA (-8)
Texas Tech (+2)
Clemson (-1)
Wake Forest (+7)
Auburn (+4)
LSU was a darling of my model early in the season, and they’re back in the top 10 after a dominating win over Ole MIss. If it wasn’t for that fluky loss against Florida State to start the season, they’d be easily in the top 10 of the polls right now. I was ready to call it quits on Penn State after their putrid performance against Michigan but they surprised me with a dominating win over Minnesota. My model still hates Clemson more than anyone else I’ve seen, my model largely chalked up their win over Syracuse to penalty yardage.
Moving Up
I thought Wisconsin (62nd → 38th) was toast after their blowout loss to Illinois, but in hindsight that result speaks more about the Illini than the Badgers. Wisconsin dominated Purdue and has an interesting swing game against Maryland next. Liberty (81st → 60th) dominated BYU and would be undefeated if they had picked up a two point conversion against Wake Forest back in September. East Carolina (54th → 36th) beat UCF to pick up the best win of Scottie Montgomery’s tenure in Greenville and could be a contender in the American this year.
Moving Down
Minnesota (34th → 65th) was in the top 10 of my ratings less than a month ago, but has been in complete free fall since with blowout losses to Illinois and Penn State. BYU (60th → 85th) was whispering about the playoff in September before a three game losing skid sent them to 4-4. There may not be a team in the country having a more disappointing season than Miami (35th → 51st) who committed a whopping 8 turnovers in their blowout loss to Duke.
College Football Picks Week 8 2022
I lost a few units last week, the whole week turned on an ugly backdoor cover from Virginia Tech. I had Miami -7.5 and they were up by double digits all game before a late touchdown from the Hokies gave them the backdoor cover. I hit Tennessee ML but gave up those gains on Auburn ML and Kansas ML.
Preseason: +0.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
2022 Total: -2.20 units
Syracuse @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Syracuse has been one of the most surprising teams of the year for me. The Orange were just plain bad last year, going 5-7 in a weak ACC. They’ve been much better this year, as they showed last week when they posted a dominating 7 YPP at home against a shorthanded NC State. I’ve bet against Clemson a few times this year with mixed results but I still think the Tigers are pretty overvalued- their three most recent wins have all been closer than the score suggested. I think Syracuse can keep this one close.
Syracuse +13.5 -110 (3 units)
Syracuse ML +400 (1 unit)
Purdue @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
On Sunday afternoons I try to guess the week’s lines without looking at my model. I’m almost always within a few points, but I was wildly off on this game. Wisconsin is yet to beat a team in my top 100 this season and has gotten run off the field by the two top 25 teams they’ve played. Purdue has been a darling of my ratings for some time and has two close losses against good teams. I expected Purdue to be a modest favorite here and will gladly take them as an underdog.
Purdue +2.5 -110 (3 units)
Cincinnati @ SMU (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
People have forgotten about Cincinnati since their week 1 loss to Arkansas. They admittedly haven’t given much to write home about as they’ve played pretty bad teams and struggled a surprising amount with South Florida two weeks ago. I do think this line disrespects them a bit though- they are the most talented team in the G5 and the quality of their roster is far beyond SMU’s. Cincinnati is in the top tier of the AAC along with Tulane and UCF, quite a ways above SMU.
Cincinnati -3 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 7 2022
Saturday was one of the best days of college football in recent years. Tennessee’s epic win over Alabama was the obvious highlight, but even beyond that we saw great wins from Utah, TCU and Michigan State, among others. The list of undefeated teams was trimmed from 15 to 9, all of whom appear in my top 25.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan (+2)
Tennessee
Texas (-2)
Oregon (+2)
Illinois (+22)
TCU (+4)
Utah
LSU (+3)
Mississippi State (-5)
UCLA (+2)
Kentucky (+17)
USC (+2)
Purdue (-8)
Syracuse (+17)
Florida State (+1)
Ole Miss (+4)
Kansas State
Maryland (-10)
Clemson (-4)
Cincinnati (-1)
Texas Tech
Texas A&M (+2)
Tennessee jumped to #3 in the AP Poll, but stays at #5 in my ratings. My model sees the Alabama game as a coin flip that the Volunteers were slightly fortunate to win, since they were only a small underdog in my system their rating is pretty unchanged from the win. I am now all aboard the Illinois bandwagon as they absolutely destroyed a good Minnesota team. The Illini have to be considered the favorites to win the Big Ten West and will be favored in every remaining game except a trip to Ann Arbor. Syracuse vaulted into my top 25 for the first time all year after their big win over NC State. Their place is probably a bit overstated as my model doesn’t properly account for NC State’s QB injury weighing their performance down.
Moving Up
Old Dominion (114th → 81st) handed Coastal Carolina their first loss of the year in dominating fashion, putting up a terrifying 11 yards per play in a 49-21 win. Nebraska (68th → 49th) is proving to be a lot better than I feared they were, giving a good Purdue team a scare in West Lafayette. Stanford (82nd → 67th) got their first FBS win of the year on the road against Notre Dame and should get another one this week against Arizona State.
Moving Down
Coastal Carolina (66th → 95th) was undefeated all year but showed signs of trouble against Gardner-Webb. It all came crashing down for the Chanticleers in their loss to Old Dominion and they now enter the meat of the Sun Belt schedule. California (76th → 97th) lost an inexcusable game on the road against a horrible Colorado team and will now struggle to make a bowl. Washington State (35th → 50th) was not competitive in a loss to Oregon State and looks like a 6-6 type team.
College Football Picks Week 7 2022
Last week was a mixed bag as I hit on UConn and Oregon but lost on Boston College and LSU. I had some positive and negative variance- UConn forced a ton of turnovers to cover easily, but Boston College was barely outgained and probably deserved to cover.
Attentive readers will remember that in addition to the bets below, I also have some 1 unit on Utah -4 at home against USC. I made that bet in the preseason, the line is pretty much unchanged at Utah -3.5.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
2022 Total: +3.27 units
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Southern Miss is having an OK season- they handed Tulane their only loss of the year and have close losses to good teams (Liberty and Troy). Arkansas State hasn’t done much to impress me this year. Their only FBS win is against a ULM team that might be the worst in the Sun Belt. I think Southern Miss has a good shot at a bowl game this year and they can get on track with a win here.
Southern Miss -3.5 -110 (3 units)
Auburn @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
My model is very low on Ole Miss compared to the computer consensus- I have the Rebels 23rd in my ratings when they’re in the top 10 of some other systems. They haven’t really played anyone aside from an overrated Kentucky team and their per play efficiency numbers are not fantastic. It feels dangerous to bet on an Auburn team that knows their coach is fired, but the talent gap between these teams is not that big.
Auburn +15.5 -110 (2 units)
Auburn ML +500 (1 unit)
Kansas @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This is the hardest game of the season to price. There is not much precedent in my dataset for teams that have risen as much through 6 games as Kansas or teams that have fallen as much as Oklahoma. This line probably would have been Oklahoma -27 or so in the preseason but these teams have had seasons go in completely opposite directions. My preseason priors have decayed a bit faster than Vegas’ here as I think these teams are actually pretty even now.
Kansas +7 -110 (2 units)
Kansas ML +225 (1 unit)
Miami @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 11:30 AM Central)
Both of these teams are having horrible seasons under first year coaches. Miami was being touted as a potential top 10 team in the preseason and is in some danger of missing a bowl game. Virginia Tech is one of the five worst P5 teams in the country. The talent gap between these teams is pretty immense though- Virginia Tech has not recruited at a top level in years while Miami has some real talent on the roster. I think Miami gets their season back on track with a big win here.
Miami -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Alabama @ Tennessee (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is not only the marquee game of the weekend, but the biggest Alabama/Tennessee game since the 90s. I am a buyer of the Volunteers- they have the second most explosive offense in the sport (Ohio State still takes the top prize and their skill talent is top notch. Alabama struggling with a very good Texas team is one thing, but I don’t think Texas A&M is that good and the Aggies took the Crimson Tide to the wire in Tuscaloosa. There’s uncertainty around Bryce Young’s status but the line is at 7.5 for now, I like Tennessee at that price.
Tennessee +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
Tennessee ML +250 (1 unit)
Tennessee ML/Auburn ML +2000 (0.2 units)
Tennessee ML/Kansas ML +1037 (0.2 units)
Auburn ML/Kansas ML +1850 (0.2 units)
Tennessee ML/Auburn ML/Kansas ML +6725 (0.1 units)
College Football Ratings Week 6 2022
The top 3 teams in the country keep winning, but not without incident. It never really felt like Texas A&M deserved to be in the game against Alabama, but they somehow had a chance to win on the last play. We still have 15 undefeated teams which is quite a lot for this point in the season. Only 11 of them feature on this list. In what will come as a surprise to many, Oklahoma State (#29 in my ratings) is one of the 4 that doesn’t make the cut, along with James Madison, Coastal Carolina and Syracuse.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Texas (+2)
Tennessee (+5)
Michigan (-2)
Mississippi State (+4)
Purdue (-1)
Oregon (+5)
Utah (-5)
Maryland (+4)
Minnesota
TCU (-4)
LSU (-6)
UCLA (+11)
Penn State (+1)
USC (-6)
Clemson (+6)
Florida State (+6)
Kansas State
Notre Dame (+6)
Cincinnati (-9)
Ole Miss (+6)
Texas Tech (+7)
Baylor (-4)
Texas demolished Oklahoma 49-0 and looks like one of the best teams in the country. If it were not for a fluky loss to Texas Tech (where the Longhorns were by far the better team) they would be solidly in the top 10 in the AP Poll as well. Michigan has been 4th in my ratings for the last few weeks but has gotten passed after an underwhelming performance against Indiana. The middle of the Big Ten is stronger than people think as none of Purdue, Maryland or Minnesota are ranked in the AP Poll but I think all are solid top 25 teams.
Moving Up
San Jose State (83rd → 57th) is 4-1 with their only loss being a close one on the road to Auburn. I didn’t think much of the Spartans in the preseason but they might be the favorites to win the Mountain West now. I wrote Georgia Tech (112th → 92nd) off for dead in the preseason but since firing coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets have won back to back games as underdogs. I’ve been low on Wake Forest (51st → 32nd) all year but they impressed me with a demolition of Army.
Moving Down
My model does not know what to do with Oklahoma (28th → 59th). There is really no precedent in my dataset for a team to fall from playoff contender to bad as quickly as they have in the last few weeks. In September I declared Air Force (44th → 64th) as a potential NY6 team but the Falcons have been all over the place and struggled with a horrible Navy team. I didn’t think Northwestern (101st → 118th) could fall much further, but after a disaster against Wisconsin, the Wildcats now have to be considered the worst team in the Big Ten by a large margin.
College Football Picks Week 6 2022
Last week was solid once again, led by Illinois destroying Wisconsin, covering +7 and hitting +225 on the moneyline as well. The Fighting Illini are one of the biggest surprises of the season and are up to 33rd in my ratings, their highest perch in many years.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
2022 Total: +4.23 units
Connecticut @ Florida International (Saturday, 6 PM)
This game features one of FBS’ bottom teams (UConn) against maybe the absolute worst (FIU). UConn has been a favorite against an FBS team only twice in the last five years, both against similarly inept UMass. They are nearly a touchdown favorite here. I quite like the Huskies at that price- they’ve shown major improvement this year, with a massive upset win over Fresno State last week. FIU, meanwhile, barely beat a bad FCS team (Bryant) in week 1. I think UConn will roll here.
Connecticut -4.5 -110 (4 units)
Clemson @ Boston College (Saturday, 6:30 PM)
I’ve been low on Clemson all year and bet heavily against them in the preseason. The Tigers have yet to really impress me so far this year, they needed some timely turnovers to beat NC State and they scraped past a mediocre Wake Forest team. I had written Boston College off for dead earlier in the season but they scored a shock win over Louisville last week. BC is not a good team, but they have a real quarterback in Phil Jurkovec and I think Clemson is still massively overvalued.
Boston College +20 -105 (3 units)
Boston College ML +850 (0.5 units)
Tennessee @ LSU (Saturday, 11 AM)
This is a huge game in the SEC. If Tennessee wins, they’ll stay in the top 10 and it’ll set up the biggest Tennessee/Alabama game of the century next week. I’ve been high on LSU all season though and will be betting on them here- the Tigers lost a fluky game to a good Florida State team in week 1 and beat the snot out of a top 25 Mississippi State team. Last weekend’s close shave with Auburn gives me some hesitation but I don’t think there’s a ton separating these two teams.
LSU +3.5 -110 (2 units)
Oregon @ Arizona (Saturday, 8 PM)
Arizona has been a pleasant surprise this year, they were a combined 1-16 in 2020 and 2021 and are off to a 3-2 start in 2022. They are no longer the worst team in the Pac-12, that title belongs to an absolutely horrible Colorado team. However, I think people have gotten a little ahead of themselves with the Wildcats. The talent level on their roster is still not up to par for a Power Five team. That’ll show itself in this game against an Oregon team that has elite level athletes up and down the roster.
Oregon -11.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 5 2022
It was another entertaining weekend of college football with pandemonium in the lower reaches of the AP Poll. The top few teams are some distance among the rest, but the second tier is wide open and it’ll be interesting to see which playoff contenders emerge from the pack.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan
Utah (+3)
Texas (+4)
Purdue (+5)
LSU (-3)
TCU (+24)
Tennessee (-1)
Mississippi State (+6)
Minnesota (-6)
Cincinnati (-2)
Oregon (+1)
Maryland (-2)
USC (+2)
Penn State (+2)
NC State (-4)
Oklahoma State (-3)
Kansas State
Baylor (+8)
Washington (+5)
Kentucky (+9)
Clemson (+14)
Florida State (-4)
The biggest result of the week was TCU’s blowout win over Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and leaped into the top 10 in my ratings- they play the Big 12’s two other undefeated teams (Kansas and Oklahoma State) in the next two weeks. Purdue continues to be shockingly high in my ratings and rose further after a big win over Minnesota. Cincinnati is not getting any national buzz but they remain the top Group of Five team by a large margin.
Moving Up
I had written off Boston College (102nd → 68th) for dead after losses to Rutgers and Virginia Tech but they scored a great win over Louisville this week. Duke (90th → 63rd) has been a pleasant surprise this season, I expected the Blue Devils to be horrible but after a big win over UVA they look like they could win the ACC Coastal. Connecticut (125th → 115th) got their first win over an FBS team in nearly 3 years as they beat Fresno State as a 3 touchdown underdog, and they should be favored once again this week against FIU.
Moving Down
Fresno State (50th → 79th) was a popular pick to win the Mountain West, but they’ve fallen off a cliff this year and are 1-3 without an FBS win after their shocking loss to UConn. Oklahoma (7th → 28th) has seen their defense ripped to shreds two weeks in a row, first by Adrian Martinez and Kansas State, then by Max Duggan and TCU. The Sooners are in danger of falling to 0-3 in the Big 12 if they lose to Texas this week, a game where they’ll be an underdog. Texas A&M (24th → 38th) was not competitive at all in a loss to Mississippi State and may actually be the worst team in the SEC West.
College Football Picks Week 5 202
Last week went quite well. My spread picks went 4-2 and I hit Miami (OH) ML +235 as well. The week was almost even better as I had Bowling Green +30.5 and they lost by 31, I think some people may have gotten the Falcons at +31 and pushed. I’m back in the black for the year, which I did not think was going to happen after my horrible week 1.
Astute readers may remember that in addition to the picks you see below, I also have 1 unit on NC State +10 against Clemson, I bet that line back in August and it is now +6.5.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
2022 Total: +0.09 units
Louisiana Monroe @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM)
I have a soft spot for Louisiana Monroe as I made a lot of money betting on the Warhawks in 2019. We did not learn much about them in their first 3 games as they predictably lost big to Alabama and Texas and beat Nicholls State. They got a huge win over Louisiana last week though, and I don’t see why they’re such big underdogs here. I think ULM is a very marginally better team as they have a more talented roster and have a real result this season unlike Arkansas State.
UL Monroe +7.5 -110 (3 units)
UL Monroe ML +245 (1 unit)
UTEP @ Charlotte (Saturday, 5 PM)
I’m no stranger to betting on UTEP, this will be my third game bet on the Miners this year in addition to their preseason win total. I missed out on betting on them last week which was a shame as they beat Boise State outright as a 17 point underdog. Charlotte was abysmal to start the season but has improved since getting QB Chris Reynolds back from injury. This line opened at PK and I’m kicking myself that I didn’t get that price, although I still think UTEP is a much better team and like them a lot at -3.
UTEP -3 -110 (3 units)
LSU @ Auburn (Saturday, 6 PM)
My ratings are all over LSU as the Tigers have soared to #5 despite not even sniffing the AP Poll. Other computer ratings agree as the Tigers are hanging out at or near the top 10 in most other ratings systems. Auburn, meanwhile, has been even more of a trainwreck than I expected. They got wiped off the field by Penn State and only beat Missouri through one of the stupidest finishes to a football game I’ve seen. That win may have saved HC Bryan Harsin’s job for now, but you have to imagine his time in the job is limited now. While this game is famous for strange things occurring, I think LSU will roll here.
LSU -8.5 -110 (3 units)
Liberty @ Old Dominion (Saturday, 5 PM)
This is a really interesting game between Virginia’s two G5 teams, I’m happy they scheduled each other and look forward to this developing into a rivalry. Liberty was really disappointing last year but is a missed 2 point conversion against Wake Forest away from being 4-0. Old Dominion grabbed headlines with their win over Virginia Tech in week 1, but it was very fluky and it seems it’s more the case that Virginia Tech is horrible than ODU is any good. I think Liberty should be a decent favorite here.
Liberty -1.5 -110 (3 units)
Illinois @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 11 AM)
Kansas is the biggest surprise in the Power Five, but Illinois might be second. The Fighting Illini are 2-1 and they outplayed Indiana in their loss and were the victims of some questionable refereeing. Ohio State treated Wisconsin like a MAC team last week and if I were to remove preseason priors from my ratings, Wisconsin would be a 4-8 type team. I wouldn’t have given Illinois a chance in this game in the offseason but I don’t think this line has moved enough given what we’ve learned about these teams in September.
Illinois +7 -110 (2 units)
Illinois ML +225 (1 unit)
Michigan State @ Maryland (Saturday, 2:30 PM)
It pains me to say it as a Michigan State fan, but the Spartans have been horrible this year. They were completely uncompetitive in losses to Washington and Minnesota, the final score was flattering in both cases. I’ve been high on Maryland all season and their last two weeks have been very good. They posted 8 yards per play against a good SMU team and then hung with Michigan despite a horrible special teams error to start the game. The Terps have supplanted MSU as the 4th best team in the Big Ten East.
Maryland -7 -110 (2 units)
UL Monroe ML/Illinois ML +973 (0.2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 4 2022
Week 3 saw one legitimate playoff contender lose (Oklahoma) and two more come very close to it (Clemson and USC). I still think that there’s a large gap between the top 3 teams and everyone else, most of the drama in the coming weeks will lie in the 4th through 10th area as it was last week.
Top 25
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Alabama
Michigan
LSU (+2)
Minnesota (+10)
Oklahoma (-2)
Utah
Tennessee (-3)
Texas (+10)
Cincinnati (-2)
Purdue (-2)
Maryland (+1)
NC State (-2)
Oregon (+9)
Oklahoma State (-5)
Mississippi State
USC (+16)
Penn State (-4)
Kansas State (+15)
Florida State (+5)
Arkansas (-2)
Ole Miss (-1)
Texas A&M (-11)
Oregon State (-6)
For the first time this season, we have a new #1 in my ratings as Ohio State treated Wisconsin like an FCS team in a blowout win. Minnesota is flying up the rankings after demolishing Michigan State- I believe this is the Gophers’ highest ever place in my ratings. We now have enough data that I’ve reduced the weight of my preseason ratings, no team is a bigger beneficiary of this than USC who rises into my top 25 for the first time all season.
Moving Up
The biggest week-over-week gain this season belongs to Middle Tennessee (108th → 63rd). The Blue Raiders were viewed as a middling CUSA team before they destroyed Miami in a game that was not even as close as its 16 point margin indicates. The only team to beat MTSU this year is James Madison (70th → 35th) who, like USC, benefitted a lot from de-emphasizing preseason results. The Dukes are one of only two undefeated G5 teams left in the country. Kent State (101st → 62nd) played Georgia shockingly close and opens MAC play next week as the possible conference favorites.
Moving Down
It’s one thing to lose to Ohio State, but it’s another thing to get completely vaporized like Wisconsin (27th → 71st) did. The final score of 52-21 doesn’t look horrible, but Wisconsin scored all their points in garbage time and Ohio State pulled the starters early. Boise State (49th → 82nd) looks to have their worst team in over a decade after they lost to UTEP as a 17 point favorite. Virginia Tech (76th → 98th) might be one of the worst teams in the Power Five as the Hokies got killed at home by a mediocre West Virginia team.
College Football Ratings Week 3 2022
Week 3 was not as exciting as week 2, with fewer big upsets and less movement at the top. In an interesting twist, most of the notable results were out west where some Pac-12 teams established themselves as legitimate league contenders (Washington and Oregon) while others flamed out to the point that their coach was fired (Arizona State).
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Alabama
Michigan
Oklahoma (+1)
Tennessee (+1)
LSU (+11)
Utah (+2)
Cincinnati (+2)
Purdue (+2)
Oklahoma State (+2)
NC State (-4)
Texas A&M (+1)
Maryland (+18)
Penn State (+15)
Minnesota (+3)
Mississippi State (-12)
Miami (-2)
Oregon State (-2)
Arkansas (-5)
Texas (+4)
Ole Miss (+1)
Pittsburgh (+5)
Oregon (+26)
Notre Dame (-4)
Many will be surprised to see LSU all the way up in the top 10. The Tigers are not even sniffing the AP Poll right now, but I was very impressed with how they dismantled a good Mississippi State team. I am pretty sure my model is the only thing on planet earth that considers 1-2 Purdue a top 10 team. The Boilermakers “deserve” to have around 2.5 wins as they outplayed both Penn State and Syracuse in their two losses. Maryland also rose a lot after their win over SMU. While the game was close, Maryland was the far more efficient team averaging almost 7 yards per play. Penn State is in my top 25 for the first time all year after a dominating road win against Auburn.
Moving Up
I completely wrote off Oregon (50th → 24th) after they were demolished by Georgia in Week 1. As time passes, it looks like Georgia may actually just be an NFL team in disguise as opposed to Oregon being fraudulent. Eastern Michigan (112th → 94th) pulled off one of their biggest wins in program history on the road at Arizona State and could possibly contend for the MAC championship. Washington State (54th → 39th) dropped the hammer on a bad Colorado State team and brings their 3-0 record to a matchup with Oregon this weekend.
Moving Down
South Carolina (33rd → 66th) was absolutely vaporized by Georgia. The Gamecocks have been quite disappointing so far this year and they will struggle to get back to a bowl. I was hyping up BYU (9th → 28th) as a possible playoff team a week ago and that has been stopped dead in its tracks after a blowout loss to Oregon. It is only a matter of time until Auburn (31st → 48th) joins Arizona State (26th → 43rd) in a mid-season coach firing, a loss this weekend to Missouri could do the trick.
College Football Picks Week 4 2022
I’m a bit annoyed about last week as it feels like my process far outperformed my results. Western Kentucky really bungled the ending of their game and should have won outright. Temple came very close to winning as a +625 dog, and South Florida nearly won as a 24.5 point underdog. Admittedly, I was quite wrong on BYU and Fresno State but the week went well overall.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units*
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
2022 Total: -5.35 units
*My week 1 result is actually -12.86 units, not -14.93 units as I previously reported- I found an error in my tracking spreadsheet.
Duke @ Kansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
You might’ve noticed that I now have winnings in the “preseason” line item of my bets. That’s because I bet on Kansas over 2.5 wins, and the Jayhawks have already cashed the over after a 3-0 start. I was bullish on Lance Leipold’s squad in the preseason but they have surpassed even my expectations and I think they could make it to a bowl. These teams are both a surprising 3-0 but Kansas has beaten much better teams to get here and the talent level on their roster is considerably higher than Duke’s.
Kansas -7 -110 (4 units)
Miami (OH) @ Northwestern (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Miami has been a remarkably mediocre MAC team for the last few years, consistently hanging out around the .500 mark in the last few years. Northwestern, meanwhile, is anything but mediocre. The Wildcats beat Nebraska in week 0 (a win that only looks worse as time passes) and have gotten whacked by Duke and Southern Illinois since then. Northwestern got straight up outplayed by an FCS team at home last week and I’m not convinced they’re much better than a veteran Miami team.
Miami (OH) +7.5 -110 (3 units)
Miami (OH) ML +235 (1 unit)
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Bowling Green has had a strange start to the season, losing to FCS Eastern Kentucky and then beating Marshall (who had beaten Notre Dame the previous week). The Falcons have an experienced squad that returns 18 starters from last year’s team that beat Minnesota as a 31 point underdog. Mississippi State is a good team, I think they’re a top 25 squad and will hang with Alabama and Georgia as well as most SEC teams. However, this is a pretty big number for them against a competent Bowling Green team.
Bowling Green +30.5 -110 (3 units)
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
There are not many teams in college football that have been more disappointing than Buffalo. The Bulls were viewed as a possible bowl team in the preseason with their win total at 5.5, but they are 0-3 with a loss to FCS Holy Cross. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, got a signature win on the road at Arizona State last week which led to the firing of Sun Devils HC Herm Edwards. I don’t understand this line at all, I thought these teams were similar in the preseason and EMU has been far better since then.
Eastern Michigan -6 -110 (3 units)
Northern Illinois @ Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Kentucky has risen rapidly in the polls after a win over Florida and is now ranked #8 in the AP Poll. I think this is pretty overdone and rank the Wildcats around 30th. Northern Illinois has been a very interesting team in the last year as they’ve won an exceedingly high number of close games. This one probably won’t be close, but the defending MAC champions have more talent than most G5 teams and I think Kentucky is a bit overrated.
Northern Illinois +26.5 -110 (2 units)
Indiana @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I bet against Indiana last week when they played Western Kentucky and will be doing so again here. The Hoosiers are the most fraudulent 3-0 team in the country. They got outplayed by both Illinois and Western Kentucky and could have lost to a bad Idaho team as well. Cincinnati is still the best G5 team in the country, and I expect them to roll in this game.
Cincinnati -16.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 3 2022
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -14.93 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
2022 Total: -10.56 units
Last week was a nice bounce back from week 1. I was particularly happy to hit Kansas ML +380 against West Virginia, as that’s a big help for my Kansas over 2.5 wins ticket as well.
Western Kentucky @ Indiana (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I highlighted Western Kentucky as one of my Group of Five teams to watch in my preseason preview. They’re off to a 2-0 start with wins over two truly bad teams. Indiana, meanwhile, struggled to get past an awful Idaho team last week. These two teams played at WKU last year and I was in attendance, the Hilltoppers far outplayed the Hoosiers and were very unlucky to loes. Indiana might be the worst team in the Big Ten and should not be a touchdown favorite here.
Western Kentucky +7 +100 (4 units)
Western Kentucky ML +200 (1 unit)
Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ole Miss has not been challenged in two easy wins against outmatched opponents. We also haven’t learned much about Georgia Tech as they played one FCS team and Clemson. I think that the Yellow Jackets are one of the worst teams in the Power Five and will likely be betting against them quite a bit in the coming weeks. They’re the least talented team in the ACC (aside from maybe Duke) and were absolutely horrible down the stretch last year. I think Ole Miss will win easily here.
Ole Miss -14.5 -110 (3 units)
BYU @ Oregon (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
BYU has been very impressive so far this season, destroying South Florida and beating a good Baylor team last week. The Cougars are up to 12th in the AP Poll and 9th in my ratings, and I think they have a great chance at the playoff if they win out. Oregon’s talent deficiencies were exposed in their week 1 drubbing at the hands of Georgia. Oregon’s lines are strong but their skill position talent is awful. BYU has the more experienced team and probably the more talented one as well.
BYU +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Rutgers @ Temple (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
There’s no sugarcoating it, Temple is really bad. I bet on the Owls in week 1 against Duke and they really disappointed me as they lost 30-0. In the preseason I would’ve thought this game would be a tossup, but Temple has been horrible and Rutgers has been surprisingly decent. However, I think this line is an overreaction. Rutgers does have a pulse this year but you could count on one hand the number of FBS teams that they should be a 17.5 point road favorite against. Temple is bad, but Rutgers is simply getting too many points here.
Temple +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Temple ML +625 (1 unit)
Fresno State @ USC (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
I have a lot of short exposure to USC already between their win total (under 9.5) as well as various individual game bets. I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was getting a bit worried as the Trojans have been quite impressive through two games. However, I think that might end here as Fresno State has a phenomenal QB in Jake Haener and he’s surrounded by one of the best rosters in the Group of Five. This game is going to be a track meet (the total is a whopping 74) but I think Fresno can trade punches with USC for long enough to hang in there.
Fresno State +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State ML +380 (1 unit)
South Florida @ Florida (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Florida came back down to earth last week against Kentucky, losing by 10 as a 7 point favorite. Their offense never really got out of first gear and prized QB Anthony Richardson threw a brutal pick six. I don’t doubt that the Gators have plenty of talent on the roster but they’re still pretty young and coach Billy Napier has been blunt about the fact that it’ll take some time for the pieces to come together. South Florida won’t come close to winning this game but they can hang in there enough to cover this spread.
South Florida +24.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Temple ML +2075 (0.2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Fresno State ML +1364 (0.2 units)
Temple ML/Fresno State ML +3380 (0.2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Temple ML/Fresno State ML +10514 (0.1 units)
College Football Ratings Week 2 2022
Week 2 was the most enjoyable September football Saturday I can remember. I have been hyping up the Sun Belt all offseason and it paid off yesterday as Marshall, App State and Georgia Southern all pulled off huge wins. Even when the favorites won, the games were great, from Alabama/Texas at noon to Baylor/BYU and Oregon State/Fresno State in the nightcap.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan
Mississippi State (+1)
Oklahoma (-1)
Tennessee
NC State (+2)
BYU
Utah (+2)
Cincinnati (+2)
Purdue (+7)
Oklahoma State (+2)
Texas A&M (-3)
Arkansas (-1)
Miami (+2)
Oregon State
LSU (+9)
Minnesota (+4)
UCLA
Notre Dame (-13)
Wisconsin (-6)
Ole Miss (-1)
Florida State (+2)
Texas (+23)
Michigan remains in 4th but the gap between them and the top 3 has shrunk a bit after a complete demolition of Hawai’i that sent the Rainbow Warriors to last place in my ratings. I was surprised to see Purdue in 12th, but my model sees a team that outplayed Penn State in week 1 and beat the brakes off Indiana State. The Boilermakers have an interesting matchup against a surprising Syracuse team this week. I think that the Big Ten West could come down to them and Minnesota who has demolished two bad teams so far this year.
Moving Up
It’s not surprising that Marshall (88th → 63rd) is the biggest riser in my ratings after their huge win over Notre Dame. The Thundering Herd are a bit unlike other G5 teams as they have tons of players who were good recruits and transferred to Marshall from Power Five schools. Texas (48th → 25th) is the rare team to show up in this category after a loss, but losses don’t get much “better” than a 1 point loss to Alabama. The Longhorns do need to look out though as they face a trip from a pesky UTSA team this coming weekend.
Moving Down
Notre Dame (8th → 21st) has predictably fallen quite a bit. It could be a bumpy road for the Irish as they face North Carolina and BYU away from home in their coming games. Virginia (68th → 82nd) got waxed by Illinois in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates. I don’t really know what’s going on with Coastal Carolina (81st → 96th) as they struggled to get past FCS Gardner-Webb, a far cry from their recent 10 win seasons.