College Football Picks Week 5 202
Last week went quite well. My spread picks went 4-2 and I hit Miami (OH) ML +235 as well. The week was almost even better as I had Bowling Green +30.5 and they lost by 31, I think some people may have gotten the Falcons at +31 and pushed. I’m back in the black for the year, which I did not think was going to happen after my horrible week 1.
Astute readers may remember that in addition to the picks you see below, I also have 1 unit on NC State +10 against Clemson, I bet that line back in August and it is now +6.5.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
2022 Total: +0.09 units
Louisiana Monroe @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM)
I have a soft spot for Louisiana Monroe as I made a lot of money betting on the Warhawks in 2019. We did not learn much about them in their first 3 games as they predictably lost big to Alabama and Texas and beat Nicholls State. They got a huge win over Louisiana last week though, and I don’t see why they’re such big underdogs here. I think ULM is a very marginally better team as they have a more talented roster and have a real result this season unlike Arkansas State.
UL Monroe +7.5 -110 (3 units)
UL Monroe ML +245 (1 unit)
UTEP @ Charlotte (Saturday, 5 PM)
I’m no stranger to betting on UTEP, this will be my third game bet on the Miners this year in addition to their preseason win total. I missed out on betting on them last week which was a shame as they beat Boise State outright as a 17 point underdog. Charlotte was abysmal to start the season but has improved since getting QB Chris Reynolds back from injury. This line opened at PK and I’m kicking myself that I didn’t get that price, although I still think UTEP is a much better team and like them a lot at -3.
UTEP -3 -110 (3 units)
LSU @ Auburn (Saturday, 6 PM)
My ratings are all over LSU as the Tigers have soared to #5 despite not even sniffing the AP Poll. Other computer ratings agree as the Tigers are hanging out at or near the top 10 in most other ratings systems. Auburn, meanwhile, has been even more of a trainwreck than I expected. They got wiped off the field by Penn State and only beat Missouri through one of the stupidest finishes to a football game I’ve seen. That win may have saved HC Bryan Harsin’s job for now, but you have to imagine his time in the job is limited now. While this game is famous for strange things occurring, I think LSU will roll here.
LSU -8.5 -110 (3 units)
Liberty @ Old Dominion (Saturday, 5 PM)
This is a really interesting game between Virginia’s two G5 teams, I’m happy they scheduled each other and look forward to this developing into a rivalry. Liberty was really disappointing last year but is a missed 2 point conversion against Wake Forest away from being 4-0. Old Dominion grabbed headlines with their win over Virginia Tech in week 1, but it was very fluky and it seems it’s more the case that Virginia Tech is horrible than ODU is any good. I think Liberty should be a decent favorite here.
Liberty -1.5 -110 (3 units)
Illinois @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 11 AM)
Kansas is the biggest surprise in the Power Five, but Illinois might be second. The Fighting Illini are 2-1 and they outplayed Indiana in their loss and were the victims of some questionable refereeing. Ohio State treated Wisconsin like a MAC team last week and if I were to remove preseason priors from my ratings, Wisconsin would be a 4-8 type team. I wouldn’t have given Illinois a chance in this game in the offseason but I don’t think this line has moved enough given what we’ve learned about these teams in September.
Illinois +7 -110 (2 units)
Illinois ML +225 (1 unit)
Michigan State @ Maryland (Saturday, 2:30 PM)
It pains me to say it as a Michigan State fan, but the Spartans have been horrible this year. They were completely uncompetitive in losses to Washington and Minnesota, the final score was flattering in both cases. I’ve been high on Maryland all season and their last two weeks have been very good. They posted 8 yards per play against a good SMU team and then hung with Michigan despite a horrible special teams error to start the game. The Terps have supplanted MSU as the 4th best team in the Big Ten East.
Maryland -7 -110 (2 units)
UL Monroe ML/Illinois ML +973 (0.2 units)