College Football Picks Week 10 2022
Preseason: -0.61 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
2022 Total: -6.11 units
Last week was a mixed bag once again. East Carolina won on a last minute field goal and Oregon dominated Cal by a lot more than the 18 point margin showed. However I was way off on Auburn and Fresno State needed a miracle onside kick to beat San Diego State outright.
I cashed one winner from my preseason bets this weekend (Georgia -15.5 against Florida) and one loser (FIU under 3 wins +100). The FIU bet is frustrating, they should’ve lost to a horrible Bryant team in week 1. I do have to give some credit to the Golden Panthers though as they are a lot better than I thought they were going to be going into the season.
I would also note that I would be playing Notre Dame +4.5 this week at home against Clemson if I hadn’t already bet this game in the preseason. I think it is instructive of how overrated Clemson is in the public perception that the line was Clemson -2.5 in August and despite Clemson being 8-0 and Notre Dame being 5-3, it has only moved two points.
Minnesota @ Nebraska (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Every Sunday I look at the week’s schedule and guess what all the lines will be without looking at my model or the actual lines. I’m normally within 3 points and almost always within 6 but I was absolutely floored when I saw this line, and my model agrees. Minnesota is decent, not the top 10 team I thought they were a month ago, but solidly the second best team in the Big Ten West. Nebraska is not a dumpster fire though- they are a middle of the pack FBS team. Minnesota is not good enough to justify this line- I know that Nebraska has an interim coach, but these teams are pretty even on talent and I can’t buy that Minnesota should be a 2 touchdown road favorite.
Nebraska +14.5 +100 (4 units)
Nebraska ML +500 (1 unit)
Alabama @ LSU (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’ve been a buyer of LSU all season and will continue to buy them here as I think this spread is pretty rich. I have Alabama 3rd and LSU 7th in my ratings, there is a big gap from the top 5 to everyone else but not enough to justify this sort of spread. LSU is one of the few teams in the country that has the athletes to compete with Alabama and Jayden Daniels has improved tremendously at the QB position in recent weeks. I think that LSU can keep this game pretty close.
LSU +13.5 -115 (2 units)
LSU ML +400 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ Washington (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
This is going to be a fantastic game between two solid, up and coming teams who play very fun football. I have been a buyer of Oregon State all year and it has worked well for me, I just need one more win from the 6-2 Beavers to cash my over 6.5 wins ticket. They have beaten every team they’ve played outside the top 15. Washington has regressed a bit in recent weeks with a loss to Arizona State and a closer than desired win over Cal. I think that Oregon State is marginally better than Washington so like betting them as a 4.5 point underdog in Seattle.
Oregon State +4.5 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ SMU (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Houston has been a disappointment last year as they were talked about as a fringe playoff contender in the preseason and they are only 5-3. However they have beaten up on some bad teams recently and are actually now in the 30s in my rankings. They’re a much more talented team than SMU and while their results this season have been a bit subpar I think they’re a marginally better team.
Houston +3 -110 (1 unit)
Nebraska ML/LSU ML +3011 (0.2 units)