College Football Picks Week 7 2022
Last week was a mixed bag as I hit on UConn and Oregon but lost on Boston College and LSU. I had some positive and negative variance- UConn forced a ton of turnovers to cover easily, but Boston College was barely outgained and probably deserved to cover.
Attentive readers will remember that in addition to the bets below, I also have some 1 unit on Utah -4 at home against USC. I made that bet in the preseason, the line is pretty much unchanged at Utah -3.5.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
2022 Total: +3.27 units
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Southern Miss is having an OK season- they handed Tulane their only loss of the year and have close losses to good teams (Liberty and Troy). Arkansas State hasn’t done much to impress me this year. Their only FBS win is against a ULM team that might be the worst in the Sun Belt. I think Southern Miss has a good shot at a bowl game this year and they can get on track with a win here.
Southern Miss -3.5 -110 (3 units)
Auburn @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
My model is very low on Ole Miss compared to the computer consensus- I have the Rebels 23rd in my ratings when they’re in the top 10 of some other systems. They haven’t really played anyone aside from an overrated Kentucky team and their per play efficiency numbers are not fantastic. It feels dangerous to bet on an Auburn team that knows their coach is fired, but the talent gap between these teams is not that big.
Auburn +15.5 -110 (2 units)
Auburn ML +500 (1 unit)
Kansas @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This is the hardest game of the season to price. There is not much precedent in my dataset for teams that have risen as much through 6 games as Kansas or teams that have fallen as much as Oklahoma. This line probably would have been Oklahoma -27 or so in the preseason but these teams have had seasons go in completely opposite directions. My preseason priors have decayed a bit faster than Vegas’ here as I think these teams are actually pretty even now.
Kansas +7 -110 (2 units)
Kansas ML +225 (1 unit)
Miami @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 11:30 AM Central)
Both of these teams are having horrible seasons under first year coaches. Miami was being touted as a potential top 10 team in the preseason and is in some danger of missing a bowl game. Virginia Tech is one of the five worst P5 teams in the country. The talent gap between these teams is pretty immense though- Virginia Tech has not recruited at a top level in years while Miami has some real talent on the roster. I think Miami gets their season back on track with a big win here.
Miami -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Alabama @ Tennessee (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is not only the marquee game of the weekend, but the biggest Alabama/Tennessee game since the 90s. I am a buyer of the Volunteers- they have the second most explosive offense in the sport (Ohio State still takes the top prize and their skill talent is top notch. Alabama struggling with a very good Texas team is one thing, but I don’t think Texas A&M is that good and the Aggies took the Crimson Tide to the wire in Tuscaloosa. There’s uncertainty around Bryce Young’s status but the line is at 7.5 for now, I like Tennessee at that price.
Tennessee +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
Tennessee ML +250 (1 unit)
Tennessee ML/Auburn ML +2000 (0.2 units)
Tennessee ML/Kansas ML +1037 (0.2 units)
Auburn ML/Kansas ML +1850 (0.2 units)
Tennessee ML/Auburn ML/Kansas ML +6725 (0.1 units)