College Football Picks Week 4 2022
I’m a bit annoyed about last week as it feels like my process far outperformed my results. Western Kentucky really bungled the ending of their game and should have won outright. Temple came very close to winning as a +625 dog, and South Florida nearly won as a 24.5 point underdog. Admittedly, I was quite wrong on BYU and Fresno State but the week went well overall.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units*
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
2022 Total: -5.35 units
*My week 1 result is actually -12.86 units, not -14.93 units as I previously reported- I found an error in my tracking spreadsheet.
Duke @ Kansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
You might’ve noticed that I now have winnings in the “preseason” line item of my bets. That’s because I bet on Kansas over 2.5 wins, and the Jayhawks have already cashed the over after a 3-0 start. I was bullish on Lance Leipold’s squad in the preseason but they have surpassed even my expectations and I think they could make it to a bowl. These teams are both a surprising 3-0 but Kansas has beaten much better teams to get here and the talent level on their roster is considerably higher than Duke’s.
Kansas -7 -110 (4 units)
Miami (OH) @ Northwestern (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Miami has been a remarkably mediocre MAC team for the last few years, consistently hanging out around the .500 mark in the last few years. Northwestern, meanwhile, is anything but mediocre. The Wildcats beat Nebraska in week 0 (a win that only looks worse as time passes) and have gotten whacked by Duke and Southern Illinois since then. Northwestern got straight up outplayed by an FCS team at home last week and I’m not convinced they’re much better than a veteran Miami team.
Miami (OH) +7.5 -110 (3 units)
Miami (OH) ML +235 (1 unit)
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Bowling Green has had a strange start to the season, losing to FCS Eastern Kentucky and then beating Marshall (who had beaten Notre Dame the previous week). The Falcons have an experienced squad that returns 18 starters from last year’s team that beat Minnesota as a 31 point underdog. Mississippi State is a good team, I think they’re a top 25 squad and will hang with Alabama and Georgia as well as most SEC teams. However, this is a pretty big number for them against a competent Bowling Green team.
Bowling Green +30.5 -110 (3 units)
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
There are not many teams in college football that have been more disappointing than Buffalo. The Bulls were viewed as a possible bowl team in the preseason with their win total at 5.5, but they are 0-3 with a loss to FCS Holy Cross. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, got a signature win on the road at Arizona State last week which led to the firing of Sun Devils HC Herm Edwards. I don’t understand this line at all, I thought these teams were similar in the preseason and EMU has been far better since then.
Eastern Michigan -6 -110 (3 units)
Northern Illinois @ Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Kentucky has risen rapidly in the polls after a win over Florida and is now ranked #8 in the AP Poll. I think this is pretty overdone and rank the Wildcats around 30th. Northern Illinois has been a very interesting team in the last year as they’ve won an exceedingly high number of close games. This one probably won’t be close, but the defending MAC champions have more talent than most G5 teams and I think Kentucky is a bit overrated.
Northern Illinois +26.5 -110 (2 units)
Indiana @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I bet against Indiana last week when they played Western Kentucky and will be doing so again here. The Hoosiers are the most fraudulent 3-0 team in the country. They got outplayed by both Illinois and Western Kentucky and could have lost to a bad Idaho team as well. Cincinnati is still the best G5 team in the country, and I expect them to roll in this game.
Cincinnati -16.5 -110 (1 unit)