College Football Picks Week 11 2022
Last week was an absolute dream as I posted my best week of the year. The highlight was LSU winning outright as a +400 underdog. The Tigers were my first moneyline underdog to hit in a few weeks and brings my total return from betting moneylines this year back into the black. Nebraska also jumped out to an early lead and held on to cover +14.5 against Minnesota, and the Oregon State defense mounted a valiant end of game stand to cover +4.5.
I cashed two more winners in my preseason bets this week. Bowling Green is now 5-4 so over 4.5 wins -145 is a winner. I also bet Notre Dame +2.5 against Clemson in August and the Fighting Irish covered easily.
Preseason: +0.99 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
2022 Total: +4.85 units
Louisville @ Clemson (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Clemson all year and am continuing to sell more here. The Tigers kept winning games in strange fashions all year and should have lost to one or multiple of Florida State, Wake Forest and Syracuse. Combine the Tigers with a Louisville team that I’ve been high on all year and this is a very clear bet for me. I’m also doubling down on my risk here as my Clemson Under 10.5 wins will hit as well if Louisville wins.
Louisville +8 -110 (4 units)
Louisville ML +240 (1 unit)
Boston College @ NC State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Boston College has been positively awful this season. Their win over Louisville is one of the most surprising results of the season as their offensive line is one of the worst in FBS. However, NC State should not be a 20 point favorite over many Power Five teams. The Wolfpack have a fantastic defense with multiple future NFL players. However, their QB play has been lacking since Devin Leary got hurt and they cannot run up the scoreboard. This reeks of a boring 23-13 type game where Boston College is never able to get going on offense but covers easily.
Boston College +20 -110 (3 units)
Boston College ML +750 (0.5 units)
SMU @ South Florida (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
South Florida let go of head coach Jeff Scott on Sunday in an unsurprising move. The Bulls had just one win over FBS opposition in his two and a half years at the helm. While they are the worst team in the conference, I don’t think they should be getting two and a half touchdowns at home against an average AAC team in SMU. The Mustangs put up 77 points against Houston last week but have one of the worst defenses in FBS. The total in this game is set at an explosive 72 and I expect some fireworks, but South Florida should be able to keep this within a few touchdowns.
South Florida +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Louisville ML/Boston College ML +2790 (0.2 units)