College Football Picks Week 8 2022
I lost a few units last week, the whole week turned on an ugly backdoor cover from Virginia Tech. I had Miami -7.5 and they were up by double digits all game before a late touchdown from the Hokies gave them the backdoor cover. I hit Tennessee ML but gave up those gains on Auburn ML and Kansas ML.
Preseason: +0.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
2022 Total: -2.20 units
Syracuse @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Syracuse has been one of the most surprising teams of the year for me. The Orange were just plain bad last year, going 5-7 in a weak ACC. They’ve been much better this year, as they showed last week when they posted a dominating 7 YPP at home against a shorthanded NC State. I’ve bet against Clemson a few times this year with mixed results but I still think the Tigers are pretty overvalued- their three most recent wins have all been closer than the score suggested. I think Syracuse can keep this one close.
Syracuse +13.5 -110 (3 units)
Syracuse ML +400 (1 unit)
Purdue @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
On Sunday afternoons I try to guess the week’s lines without looking at my model. I’m almost always within a few points, but I was wildly off on this game. Wisconsin is yet to beat a team in my top 100 this season and has gotten run off the field by the two top 25 teams they’ve played. Purdue has been a darling of my ratings for some time and has two close losses against good teams. I expected Purdue to be a modest favorite here and will gladly take them as an underdog.
Purdue +2.5 -110 (3 units)
Cincinnati @ SMU (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
People have forgotten about Cincinnati since their week 1 loss to Arkansas. They admittedly haven’t given much to write home about as they’ve played pretty bad teams and struggled a surprising amount with South Florida two weeks ago. I do think this line disrespects them a bit though- they are the most talented team in the G5 and the quality of their roster is far beyond SMU’s. Cincinnati is in the top tier of the AAC along with Tulane and UCF, quite a ways above SMU.
Cincinnati -3 -110 (1 unit)