2022-23 Preseason Bracketology
It’s snuck up on me, but college basketball season starts tomorrow. It’s a bit of a weird opening to the season this year as there’s very few marquee games in the first week. The Champions Classic is not until the 15th and then Feast Week kicks off the week after that. I’m pretty busy with college football at this time of year so I probably won’t post another update until after Thanksgiving weekend, we’ll probably have a clearer sense of where everyone stands.
1: Gonzaga, North Carolina, Baylor, Kentucky
2: Houston, Texas, Tennessee, Kansas
3: Duke, UCLA, Indiana, Arkansas
4: TCU, San Diego State, Virginia, Arizona
5: Villanova, Illinois, Creighton, Auburn
6: Virginia Tech, Xavier, Oregon, Purdue
7: Michigan, Michigan State, Dayton, Texas A&M
8: Memphis, Texas Tech, Alabama, Oklahoma
9: Miami (FL), Iowa, Oklahoma State, Connecticut
10: Saint Louis, USC, St. John’s, Florida
11: Memphis, Florida State, (Wyoming/West Virginia), (Stanford/Tulane)
12: UAB, Furman, Drake, Liberty
13: Toledo, Grand Canyon, Towson, Vermont
14: UC Santa Barbara, Colgate, Iona, Oral Roberts
15: James Madison, Princeton, Northern Kentucky, Longwood
16: Norfolk State, Montana State, (Texas A&M Corpus Christi/Morehead State), (Texas Southern/Wagner)
First Four Out: Missouri, Ohio State, Rutgers, St. Mary’s
Next Four Out: BYU, Syracuse, Kansas State, Loyola Chicago
Bracketology 3/13/2022 PM
The selection show is now only hours away, and this is my final bracket projection of the season.
We had one big shakeup in today’s action. Richmond’s win over Davidson puts the Spiders into the tournament and takes a spot from the at-large pool. I think SMU is the casualty of Richmond’s win.
I feel pretty decent about my first 66 teams in the bracket but much worse about the last two spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of my first 5 teams out of the field in the tournament.
We do have one interesting quirk in my final bracket projection. Since 3 of my last 4 teams in (Michigan, Indiana and Rutgers) are from the Big Ten, I have Michigan and Indiana playing in the First Four in Dayton. The committee explicitly allows a conference matchup in the First Four if at least three of the teams are from the same conference.
1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
2: Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Villanova
3: Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
4: Illinois, UCLA, Arkansas, Providence
5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Iowa
6: Colorado State, USC, Texas, Alabama
7: LSU, Michigan State, Murray State, Boise State
8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State
9: Marquette, TCU, North Carolina, Creighton
10: Memphis, Miami (FL), San Francisco, Loyola Chicago
11: Wyoming, Davidson,Virginia Tech, (Indiana/Michigan)
12: (Texas A&M/Rutgers), UAB, South Dakota State, Chattanooga
13: New Mexico State, Richmond, Vermont, Montana State
14: Longwood, St. Peter’s, Akron, Yale
15: Jacksonville State, Delaware, Cal State Fullerton, Colgate
16: Georgia State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)
First Four Out: SMU, Notre Dame, Xavier, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Oklahoma, VCU, Florida, North Texas
Moving In: Richmond, Yale
Moving Out: SMU, Princeton
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
SEC: 7
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Bracketology 3/13/2022 AM
Selection Sunday is upon us, and the bubble is extremely fluid. I’d be pretty surprised if I get all 68 teams right this year, the last few spots on the bubble are wide open. What’s nice about this year’s bubble is that there’s a lot of different flavors of teams to choose from. There’s a traditional high loss count power team (Oklahoma), a team with big wins and bad losses (Rutgers), a team getting hot at the right time (Texas A&M) and a team getting cold at the wrong time (Xavier).
I’ll have my final update this afternoon right after the Big Ten championship game ends. We could have some changes between now and then, Richmond is lurking as a potential bid thief and will slot into the bracket as a 13 seed should they beat Davidson today.
1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
2: Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Villanova
3: Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
4: Illinois, UCLA, Arkansas, Providence
5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Iowa
6: Colorado State, USC, Texas, Alabama
7: LSU, Michigan State, Murray State, Boise State
8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State
9: Marquette, TCU, North Carolina, Creighton
10: Memphis, Miami (FL), San Francisco, Loyola Chicago
11: Davidson, Wyoming, Indiana, Virginia Tech
12: (Michigan/Texas A&M), (Rutgers/SMU), UAB, South Dakota State
13: Chattanooga, New Mexico State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Montana State, Longwood, St. Peter’s, Akron
15: Jacksonville State, Delaware, Cal State Fullerton, Colgate
16: Georgia State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)
First Four Out: Notre Dame, Xavier, Wake Forest, Oklahoma
Next Four Out: VCU, Florida, North Texas, BYU
Moving In: Texas A&M, SMU, Texas Southern, Akron, Cal State Fullerton
Moving Out: Xavier, Notre Dame, Alcorn State, Kent State, Long Beach State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
SEC: 7
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 3/12/2022
Virginia Tech won their third game in three days and moves into my field for the first time since December. I think that the true bubble right now is 8 teams (Rutgers, Xavier, Virginia Tech, SMU, Wake Forest, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and VCU) for 3 spots. I would add that the bubble is likely to contract by 1 team, Davidson is less than 50/50 to win the Atlantic 10 tournament which would lead to a bid being stolen.
The Saturday of conference tournament week is one of the best days of the college hoops season, buckle up and enjoy.
1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas
2: Kentucky, Auburn, Purdue, Villanova
3: Duke, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
4: UCLA, Providence, Arkansas, Illinois
5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, LSU
6: Iowa, Colorado State, Texas, USC
7: Murray State, Michigan State, Alabama, Boise State
8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State
9: North Carolina, Creighton, TCU, Marquette
10: San Francisco, Davidson, Memphis, Miami (FL)
11: Wyoming, Loyola Chicago, Indiana, Michigan
12: (Notre Dame/Rutgers), (Xavier/Virginia Tech), UAB, South Dakota State
13: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton
14: Montana State, Colgate, Longwood, St. Peter’s
15: Jacksonville State, Kent State, Georgia State, Long Beach State
16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Alcorn State/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)
First Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Next Four Out: VCU, Dayton, Florida, BYU
Also Considered: Mississippi State, North Texas, UAB, Colorado
Moving In: Virginia Tech, UAB, Kent State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Moving Out: SMU, North Texas, Toledo, Nicholls State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 3/11/2022
Some bubble teams from outside the bracket are making a charge into consideration this week. Oklahoma picked up a massive win over Baylor and will likely move into the field if they beat Texas Tech today. Virginia Tech has strung together two close wins and takes on North Carolina today. Texas A&M knocked off fellow bubble team Florida and has a chance for a marquee win against Auburn.
I’ll be scrubbing the entire seed list between now and Sunday morning so expect some changes between now and then. 42 of the 60 teams in at-large consideration are still alive in their conference tournaments so there are plenty of data points still to come.
1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova
3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas
5: Connecticut, Houston, St. Mary’s, LSU
6: Colorado State, Texas, USC, Iowa
7: Murray State, Boise State, Alabama, Michigan State
8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, North Carolina, Iowa State
9: TCU, San Diego State, San Francisco, Marquette
10: Davidson, Creighton, Wyoming, Miami (FL)
11: Memphis, Loyola Chicago, Rutgers, Michigan
12: (Notre Dame/Xavier), (SMU/Indiana), North Texas, South Dakota State
13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Vermont, New Mexico State
14: Princeton, Montana State, Colgate, Longwood
15: St. Peter’s, Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Long Beach State
16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)
First Four Out: VCU, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, North Texas
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Dayton, Texas A&M, Florida
Also Considered: BYU, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado
Moving In: Indiana
Moving Out: VCU
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 3/10/2022
It was a wild day on the bubble as both Wake Forest and Xavier lost in overtime as decent favorites. I have moved Wake Forest out of the field in favor of VCU for now. The Demon Deacons have just 1 Q1 win at Virginia Tech as well as a horrible non-conference schedule. It’s a testament to how weak the ACC is this year that a 23-9 ACC team is in danger of missing the tournament.
More bubble teams are in action today. Indiana, Florida and Oklahoma are among the teams that must win today to keep their at-large hopes alive.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova
3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas
5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Texas
6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa
7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State
8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina
9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU
10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton
11: Memphis, Michigan, Loyola Chicago, Rutgers
12: (Notre Dame/Xavier), (SMU/VCU), North Texas, South Dakota State
13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Vermont, New Mexico State
14: Princeton, Montana State, Colgate, Longwood
15: St. Peter’s, Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Long Beach State
16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)
First Four Out: Wake Forest, North Texas, Dayton, Indiana
Next Four Out: Florida, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU
Also Considered: Texas A&M, Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB
Moving In: St. Peter’s, VCU
Moving Out: Iona, Wake Forest
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Bracketology 3/9/2022
Power conference bubble teams start their conference tournaments today. Xavier takes on Butler, the Musketeers will be pretty safe with a win but in some danger with a loss. Wake Forest plays Boston College and would probably slide out of the field with a loss. Virginia Tech plays Clemson and would be eliminated from consideration with a loss.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova
3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas
5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Texas
6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa
7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State
8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina
9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU
10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton
11: Memphis, Michigan, Xavier, Loyola Chicago
12: (Rutgers/Notre Dame), (Wake Forest/SMU), North Texas, South Dakota State
13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Iona, Vermont
14: New Mexico State, Princeton, Montana State, Colgate
15: Longwood, Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Long Beach State
16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)
First Four Out: VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Florida
Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado
Moving In: Jacksonville State
Moving Out: Jacksonville
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 3/8/2022
Monday’s action produced no changes to the bubble. Santa Clara was a potential bid thief in the WCC but they fell at the buzzer to St. Mary’s, the WCC looks very likely to send 3 teams to the tournament.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova
3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas
5: Houston, St. Mary’s, Connecticut, Texas
6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa
7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State
8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina
9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU
10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton
11: Memphis, Michigan, Xavier, Loyola Chicago
12: (Rutgers/Notre Dame), (Wake Forest/SMU), North Texas, South Dakota State
13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Iona, Vermont
14: New Mexico State, Princeton, Montana State, Colgate
15: Longwood, Jacksonville, Georgia State, Long Beach State
16: Delaware, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)
First Four Out: VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Florida
Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado
Moving In: Delaware, Wright State
Moving Out: Towson, Cleveland State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 3/7/2022
It was a weekend of clarity on the bubble as most of the teams who were barely in the field (Michigan, Memphis, Rutgers etc.) won while those who were barely out of it (VCU, Florida, Virginia Tech etc.) lost. I suspect there is probably a lot of consensus among the first 67 teams in the field and most people will have SMU in the last spot as well.
I have a full bracket below my seed list as well today. I will be updating my seed list daily from now until Selection Sunday.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova
3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas
5: Houston, St. Mary’s, Connecticut, Texas
6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa
7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State
8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina
9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU
10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton
11: Memphis, Michigan, Xavier, Loyola Chicago
12: (Rutgers/Notre Dame), (Wake Forest/SMU), North Texas, South Dakota State
13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Iona, Vermont
14: Towson, New Mexico State, Princeton, Montana State
15: Colgate, Longwood, Jacksonville, Georgia State
16: Long Beach State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Cleveland State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)
First Four Out: VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Florida
Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU, Texas A&M
Also Considered: Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
2022 Arch Madness Preview
I’m headed to St. Louis for the Missouri Valley Men’s Basketball Tournament, or “Arch Madness” as it’s commonly known. It figures to be a great tournament- Loyola is clearly the team to beat, but the MVC is a deep league with five or six teams capable of winning the title. To prepare for the tournament, here’s a full preview.
#1 Northern Iowa Panthers (Kenpom 89, T-Rank 92)
The Panthers play really small, they're one of the smaller teams in D1. This means they're at the bottom of D1 in offensive rebounding rate and block rate. They shoot a lot of mid-range and do it rather efficiently. They also take great care of the ball and don't turn it over much. They play a lot of lineups where everyone on the floor is between 6'3" and 6'7".
The two names to know here are AJ Green (#4) and Noah Carter (#35). Green is a hometown product from Cedar Falls and mainly plays the two but can run point as well. He's shooting 38% from 3 on 7 attempts a game. Carter is 6'6" but plays most of his minutes as a small ball five.
The Panthers are a proud program that would've been right on the cut line for an at-large had the 2020 NCAA Tournament had it happened. They're quite lucky to be the 1 seed but when they're hitting shots, they'll be hard to beat.
#2 Missouri State Bears (Kempom 63, T-Rank 74)
The Bears are the clear second favorite to win the tournament and feature a national top-25 offense. This is one of the best shooting teams outside the power conferences, they're shooting 37% on 3's, 55% on 2's and 80% at the line.
This is a two man team. Isiaih Mobley (#1) is a fantastic combo guard who is shooting a staggering 52% on 7 mid-range attempts a game, and 42% on 5 3 point attempts a game. He leads the conference in usage. Gaige Prim (#44) is a 6'9" big who leads the conference in block rate and is a great finisher at the rim.
Missouri State has not been to the Big Dance since a 1999 trip to the Sweet 16. This team not only has the capability to make it to the tournament, but they can win a game once there.
#3 Drake Bulldogs (Kenpom 88, T-Rank 89)
The Bulldogs are a veteran squad that returns lots of minutes from last year's NCAA tournament team. They play a lot of iso ball, ranking near the bottom of D1 in assists per field goals made. They have a balanced squad with no player exceeding a 24% usage rate.
The most important contributors are senior guards Roman Penn (#1) and Garrett Sturtz (#3). At six feet, Penn is a true point guard who is more of a distributor than a scorer. Sturtz loves to drive to the bucket and is a good finisher when he gets there.
Drake is coming off their best season in a decade, as they snuck into the NCAA tournament, winning a First Four Game and bowing out the USC in the Round of 64. This team got some at-large buzz in the preseason before an 0-3 trip to the ESPN Events Invitational in November killed those hopes, but they are a contender at Arch Madness.
#4 Loyola Chicago Ramblers (Kenpom 30, T-Rank 47)
The Ramblers are the most balanced team in the field with a top 50 offense and defense. This is a veteran team that likes to play slow. They love to shoot the 3 and do it very efficiently, making them one of the best shooting team in D1.
The Ramblers have a deep rotation but the most important players are Lucas Williamson (#1) and Braden Norris (#4). The upperclassmen guards both shoot 40% from 3 on decent volume. Norris is more of a true point guard who leads the team in assist rate while Williamson is a scorer who is not afraid to go to the rim to find his shot.
Loyola is the clear favorite to win the tournament, and they have been the class of the conference for the last 5 years. They are in the thick of the NCAA tournament picture here and likely need a win or two in St. Louis to have a chance at an at-large.
#5 Bradley Braves (Kenpom 90, T-Rank 87)
The Braves are the most defensive-oriented team in the field. Unsurprisingly, they're also the biggest, with plenty of lineups featuring 3 6'7" players or taller. They do well on the offensive glass but turn the ball over too much.
Sophomore Dutch big man Rienk Mast (#51) is the most intriguing player on this team. He's taken big strides from his freshman year and is very productive on the offensive and defensive glass. Terry Roberts (#0) adds to the league's collection of good upperclassmen guards.
Bradley has won this tournament as a middling seed twice recently, in 2019 and 2020. This team is a bit better than those ones, so they have to be taken seriously as a contender.
#6 Southern Illinois Salukis (Kenpom 119, T-Rank 120)
The Salukis have a unique style of basketball, playing at one of the slowest tempos in all of Division 1. They shoot the 3 well but struggle a lot on the offensive glass.
Like Missouri State, this is a two man team. Junior guard Lance Jones (#5) has a league-high usage rate (31%) although lacks the efficiency numbers to back it up. Marcus Domask (#1) mainly plays the 4 and is the team's most efficient player.
The Salukis are unlucky to be 16-14 as they have lost lots of close games. This program went to 6 consecutive NCAA tournaments from 2002 to 2007 with 2 trips to the Sweet 16, they'll be looking for their first ticket to the Big Dance in 15 years.
#7 Valparaiso Beacons (Kenpom 202, T-Rank 215)
The Beacons are an OK shooting team but pretty poor on the glass. They like to play pretty slow, especially on defense where they force long possessions.
The best player on the team is big man Ben Krikke (#23). The 6'9" Canadian finishes well at the rim and is a good free throw shooter for his size. Senior guard Kobe King (#35) shoots a decent amount of mid-range and takes good care of the ball.
Valparaiso basketball has been dominated by the Drew family, with patriarch Homer coaching the Beacons for two decades and sons Scott and Bryce having stints as well. In 2016, Valpo nearly got an at-large and made it to the NIT championship game. Since then, it's been all downhill.
#8 Illinois State Redbirds (Kenpom 184, T-Rank 195)
The Redbirds have a fun up-tempo offense, they like to run the floor and they shoot the 3 well. Their defense, however, is quite poor, and they struggle on the glass.
Junior wing Antonio Reeves (#12) does a lot for the Redbirds, he shoots 39% from 3 on 6 attempts a game. A lot of his baskets are assisted by 5'10" point guard Mark Freeman (#0), a transfer from Tennessee State who is a good passer but not much of a shooter.
Dan Muller is in his 10th year at Illinois State and his 2017 squad should have gotten an at-large bid, but fell just short and got a 1 seed in the NIT. Outside of that, it's been a pretty rough decade for the Redbirds.
Bracketology 3/4/2022
Both Xavier and Wyoming looked pretty safe a few weeks ago and are now playing themselves into legitimate trouble. Xavier is on a 1-7 stretch that includes a home loss to DePaul, they’ve gone from a 5 seed to an 11 seed. Wyoming’s slide has been less severe, but they’ve still dropped 4 of 6 and would be advised to avoid a bad loss in the Mountain West tournament.
I’m headed to St. Louis for Arch Madness, which is shaping up to be one of the most interesting conference tournaments this year. Loyola probably needs to win a game or two to have a real shot at an at-large.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin
3: Purdue, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Villanova
4: Illinois, Providence, Arkansas, Houston
5: UCLA, Texas, St. Mary’s, Connecticut
6: Colorado State, USC, LSU, Alabama
7: Ohio State, Iowa, Murray State, Boise State
8: TCU, Seton Hall, Iowa State, Michigan State
9: Davidson, Marquette, San Francisco, Creighton
10: Miami (FL), San Diego State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame
11: Wyoming, North Texas, North Carolina, Xavier
12: (Michigan/SMU), (Memphis/Rutgers), South Dakota State, Chattanooga
13: Iona, Towson, Vermont, Toledo
14: Northern Iowa, New Mexico State, Montana State, Princeton
15: Texas State, Colgate, Jacksonville State, Long Beach State
16: Longwood, Bryant, (Norfolk State/Cleveland State), (Alcorn State/Nicholls State)
First Four Out: Indiana, Loyola Chicago, Virginia Tech, BYU
Next Four Out: Florida, VCU, Dayton, Oklahoma
Also Considered: Oregon, Belmont, Kansas State, Colorado
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 3/2/2022
There’s been a bit of a shakeup on the top line, as I’ve swapped Arizona and Kansas after last night’s results where the Wildcats destroyed USC on the road and Kansas lost to TCU. The latter result firmly locks up the Horned Frogs, who are heading to their second NCAA tournament of the millennium.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin
3: Purdue, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Villanova
4: Illinois, Providence, Houston, Arkansas
5: UCLA, Texas, St. Mary’s, Connecticut
6: Alabama, Colorado State, LSU, USC
7: Murray State, Ohio State, Iowa State, Boise State
8: Michigan State, TCU, Iowa, Marquette
9: Seton Hall, Davidson, San Francisco, Notre Dame
10: Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton, San Diego State
11: Xavier, Wake Forest, North Texas, Michigan
12: (North Carolina/Memphis), (SMU/Indiana), Iona, Chattanooga
13: South Dakota State, Towson, Vermont, Toledo
14: Northern Iowa, New Mexico State, Montana State, Princeton
15: Texas State, Colgate, Jacksonville State, Long Beach State
16: Longwood, Bryant, (Norfolk State/Cleveland State), (Alcorn State/Nicholls State)
First Four Out: Loyola Chicago, Virginia Tech, BYU, Rutgers
Next Four Out: Florida, VCU, Dayton, Oklahoma
Also Considered: Oregon, Belmont, Kansas State, Colorado
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 2/28/2022
Lots of teams played their way off the bubble this weekend. Most notable was Dayton, who took their 4th Q4 loss of the year against La Salle. Rutgers dropped their 3rd straight in a loss to Wisconsin, falling out of the field. Loyola Chicago lost on the road to Northern Iowa as well and might need to win Arch Madness to make the tournament.
The pool of potential bubble teams is getting smaller. I would define the real bubble as 17 teams for 8 spots- my last 8 in and my first 9 out. However, we’re likely to have some bid stealers (my guess is two) contracting that bubble.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, Arizona
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Duke
3: Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Villanova
4: Providence, Illinois, Houston, Arkansas
5: Texas, UCLA, St. Mary’s, Connecticut
6: Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Colorado State
7: LSU, Murray State, Iowa State, Michigan State
8: Boise State, Iowa, Marquette, Seton Hall
9: TCU, Wyoming, Davidson, San Francisco
10: Notre Dame, Miami (FL), Creighton, Xavier
11: Wake Forest, North Texas, San Diego State, Memphis
12: (SMU/Michigan), (North Carolina/Indiana), Iona, Chattanooga
13: South Dakota State, Towson, Vermont, Toledo
14: Northern Iowa, New Mexico State, Montana State, Princeton
15: Texas State, Colgate, Jacksonville State, Long Beach State
16: Longwood, Bryant, (Norfolk State/Cleveland State), (Texas Southern/Nicholls State)
First Four Out: Loyola Chicago, BYU, Rutgers, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: VCU, Florida, Oklahoma, Dayton
Also Considered: Oregon, Belmont, Kansas State, Colorado
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 2/25/2022
The biggest bubble result since my last update was Michigan’s win over Rutgers. Rutgers has fallen to my last team in the field now, they need to go 2-1 in their last 3 to remain in my bracket. Elsewhere, Murray State locked up their bid by destroying Belmont. Both Belmont and Morehead State are potential bid thieves should either knock the Racers out of the OVC tournament.
1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Auburn
2: Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Duke
3: Texas Tech, Villanova, Wisconsin, Providence
4: Tennessee, Illinois, Houston, Ohio State
5: UCLA, Texas, Arkansas, Connecticut
6: Alabama, USC, Murray State, LSU
7: St. Mary’s, Colorado State, Boise State, Iowa State
8: Iowa, Michigan State, Marquette, Xavier
9: Seton Hall, Miami (FL), TCU, Wyoming
10: Davidson, San Francisco, Notre Dame, Wake Forest
11: North Texas, Creighton, Michigan, SMU
12: Loyola Chicago, (North Carolina/San Diego State), (Memphis/Rutgers), Iona
13: Chattanooga, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont
14: Toledo, Montana State, Princeton, Texas State
15: Colgate, Wagner, Jacksonville State, Longwood
16: Norfolk State, Long Beach State, (Cleveland State/Texas Southern), (UNC Wilmington/New Orleans)
First Four Out: Dayton, Indiana, BYU, VCU
Next Four Out: Florida, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma
Also Considered: Virginia, Belmont, Kansas State, West Virginia
Moving In: Jacksonville State
Moving Out: Liberty
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 2/23/2022
I’ve moved Indiana out of the field for the first time all season after their loss to Ohio State on Monday night. The Hoosiers are 5-10 against the top two quadrants and their really poor non-conference SOS is coming back to bite them now. I also considered moving San Diego State out after their tough one point loss to Boise State but kept them in the First Four. The Aztecs still have some opportunities on the table with a trip to Wyoming and a home game against Fresno State coming up.
1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Auburn
2: Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Duke
3: Texas Tech, Villanova, Illinois, Wisconsin
4: Tennessee, UCLA, Providence, Houston
5: Texas, Ohio State, Arkansas, Connecticut
6: Alabama, LSU, USC, St. Mary’s
7: Boise State, Murray State, , Iowa State, Colorado State
8: Iowa, Michigan State, Marquette, Xavier
9: Wyoming, TCU, Seton Hall, Miami (FL)
10: San Francisco, Wake Forest, Davidson, Notre Dame
11: North Texas, SMU, Loyola Chicago, Michigan
12: Rutgers, (Creighton/North Carolina), (San Diego State/Memphis), Iona
13: Chattanooga, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont
14: Toledo, Wagner, Montana State, Liberty
15: Princeton, Texas State, Colgate, Longwood
16: Norfolk State, Long Beach State, (Cleveland State/Texas Southern), (UNC Wilmington/New Orleans)
First Four Out: Dayton, Indiana, Belmont, BYU
Next Four Out: VCU, Virginia, Florida, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oregon, West Virginia
Moving In: Memphis
Moving Out: Indiana
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology 2/21/2022
The committee’s reveal of their top 16 teams on Saturday was pretty in line with my expectations. Illinois was decently higher than I expected, the committee noted they gave the Illini a bump to compensate for injury absences earlier in the year. They took Houston’s spot in the top 16.
I think that the top 38 teams in this seed list (from Miami on up) can feel reasonably secure about their place in the bracket. They’re not all locks by any stretch, but things would have to go significantly awry for any of them to miss the field.
1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Auburn
2: Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Duke
3: Texas Tech, Villanova, Illinois, Wisconsin
4: Tennessee, UCLA, Providence, Houston
5: Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, LSU
6: Ohio State, USC, Connecticut, St. Mary’s
7: Michigan State, Murray State, Boise State, Iowa State
8: Colorado State, Marquette, Xavier, Wyoming
9: TCU, Iowa, Seton Hall, San Francisco
10: Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Davidson, Notre Dame
11: North Texas, SMU, Loyola Chicago, Michigan
12: San Diego State, (Rutgers/Creighton), (North Carolina/Indiana), Iona
13: Chattanooga, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont
14: Toledo, Wagner, Montana State, Liberty
15: Princeton, Texas State, Colgate, Longwood
16: Norfolk State, Long Beach State, (Cleveland State/Texas Southern), (UNC Wilmington/New Orleans)
First Four Out: Memphis, Dayton, Belmont, BYU
Next Four Out: VCU, Florida, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oregon, West Virginia
Moving In: Creighton, SMU
Moving Out: Memphis, BYU
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 2/18/2022
Rutgers’ charge into contention continues, I’ve moved the Scarlet Knights into the bracket for the first time all season after their win over Illinois. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Michigan picked up their biggest road win of the year at Iowa to solidify their resume. The Hawkeyes have strong efficiency numbers but are 5-8 versus Quadrants 1 and 2 and are in some danger of missing the tournament.
1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas
2: Purdue, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke
3: Villanova, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Providence
4: Tennessee, Houston, UCLA, Texas
5: Illinois, LSU, Connecticut, Alabama
6: Ohio State, Michigan State, St. Mary’s, Xavier
7: USC, Marquette, Arkansas, Colorado State
8: Murray State, TCU, Wyoming, Iowa State
9: Wake Forest, Boise State, Iowa, Loyola Chicago
10: San Francisco, Notre Dame, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
11: BYU, Michigan, Davidson, San Diego State
12: (Memphis/Rutgers), (North Carolina/Indiana), North Texas, Iona
13: South Dakota State, Toledo, Vermont, Chattanooga
14: Wagner, New Mexico State, Liberty, Montana State
15: Yale, Texas State, Colgate, Longwood
16: Long Beach State, Cleveland State, (UNC Wilmington/Texas Southern), (Norfolk State/New Orleans)
First Four Out: Creighton, Oklahoma, North Texas, SMU
Next Four Out: Kansas State, Florida, Virginia Tech, VCU
Also Considered: Dayton, Belmont, Oregon, St. Bonaventure
Moving In: Rutgers
Moving Out: SMU
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
West Coast: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 2/16/2022
San Diego State blew out a good Utah State team at home and moved back into my field. They replace Oklahoma, the Sooners’ record is getting unworkable as they are now 2-9 in their last 11 and will probably finish with at least 15 losses.
1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas
2: Baylor, Purdue, Kentucky, Duke
3: Villanova, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Providence
4: Tennessee, Houston, UCLA, Illinois
5: Texas, Xavier, LSU, Alabama
6: Ohio State, Michigan State, Connecticut, USC
7: St. Mary’s, Marquette, Arkansas, Murray State
8: Colorado State, Iowa, TCU, Wyoming
9: Iowa State, Wake Forest, Boise State, San Francisco
10: Loyola Chicago, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Miami (FL)
11: Seton Hall, BYU, Davidson, San Diego State
12: (SMU/Memphis), (Michigan/Indiana), North Texas, Iona
13: South Dakota State, Chattanooga, Toledo, Vermont
14: Wagner, New Mexico State, Liberty, Montana State
15: Yale, Texas State, Colgate, Longwood
16: Long Beach State, Cleveland State, (UNC Wilmington/Texas Southern), (Norfolk State/New Orleans)
First Four Out: Oklahoma, Creighton, Oregon, Kansas State
Next Four Out: North Texas, Florida, Virginia Tech, VCU
Also Considered: Dayton, Rutgers, Mississippi State, St. Bonaventure
Moving In: San Diego State
Moving Out: Oklahoma
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
West Coast: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Bracketology 2/14/2022
An eventful weekend leads to lots of shakeups along the bubble. SMU and Memphis both played their win into the field in this update, taking the AAC from a 1 bid to a 3 bid league. Further out on the bubble, Rutgers and Virginia are among teams making a late charge into bubble contention.
1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas
2: Baylor, Purdue, Kentucky, Duke
3: Villanova, Providence, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
4: Houston, Tennessee, UCLA, Illinois
5: Michigan State, Xavier, LSU, Texas
6: Alabama, Ohio State, Connecticut, USC
7: St. Mary’s, Marquette, Wyoming, Arkansas
8: TCU, Murray State, Colorado State, Wake Forest
9: Iowa, Boise State, Iowa State, San Francisco
10: Loyola Chicago, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Miami (FL)
11: Seton Hall, BYU, Davidson, Indiana
12: (SMU/Oklahoma), (Michigan/Memphis), North Texas, Iona
13: South Dakota State, Chattanooga, Toledo, Vermont
14: Wagner, New Mexico State, Liberty, Montana State
15: Yale, Texas State, Colgate, Longwood
16: Long Beach State, Cleveland State, (UNC Wilmington/Texas Southern), (Norfolk State/New Orleans)
First Four Out: San Diego State, Florida, Creighton, North Texas
Next Four Out: VCU, Rutgers, Oregon, West Virginia
Also Considered: Kansas State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
West Coast: 4
American: 3
Mountain West: 3
Pac-12: 3
Bracketology 2/12/2022
The biggest bubble result of the last two days was Michigan’s demolition of Purdue. It’s by far the best result of the Wolverines’ season and brought their NET up to 30 and elevated them into my field for the first time in a month. They take the place of Saint Louis, who lost to St. Bonaventure. Out west, Colorado State got a nice win against Fresno State to move up to the 8 line and BYU avoided disaster in Los Angeles against Loyola Marymount.
1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Purdue, Arizona
2: Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky, Wisconsin
3: Duke, Houston, Providence, Texas Tech
4: Villanova, UCLA, Tennessee, Illinois
5: Texas, Marquette, Michigan State, LSU
6: Xavier, Ohio State, USC, St. Mary’s
7: Connecticut, Iowa State, Murray State, Alabama
8: Iowa, Arkansas, Wyoming, Colorado State
9: Indiana, Boise State, Wake Forest, Seton Hall
10: Davidson, TCU, Loyola Chicago, North Carolina
11: San Francisco, Oregon, Michigan, BYU
12: (Notre Dame/Florida), (Miami (FL)/San Diego State), UAB, Iona
13: Chattanooga, Wagner, South Dakota State, Ohio
14: Vermont, New Mexico State, Liberty, Cleveland State
15: Yale, Cal State Fullerton, Appalachian State, Colgate
16: Weber State, UNC Wilmington, (Longwood/Southern), (New Orleans/Norfolk State)
First Four Out: Oklahoma, SMU, North Texas, West Virginia
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Saint Louis, Kansas State, Belmont