2022 Arch Madness Preview
I’m headed to St. Louis for the Missouri Valley Men’s Basketball Tournament, or “Arch Madness” as it’s commonly known. It figures to be a great tournament- Loyola is clearly the team to beat, but the MVC is a deep league with five or six teams capable of winning the title. To prepare for the tournament, here’s a full preview.
#1 Northern Iowa Panthers (Kenpom 89, T-Rank 92)
The Panthers play really small, they're one of the smaller teams in D1. This means they're at the bottom of D1 in offensive rebounding rate and block rate. They shoot a lot of mid-range and do it rather efficiently. They also take great care of the ball and don't turn it over much. They play a lot of lineups where everyone on the floor is between 6'3" and 6'7".
The two names to know here are AJ Green (#4) and Noah Carter (#35). Green is a hometown product from Cedar Falls and mainly plays the two but can run point as well. He's shooting 38% from 3 on 7 attempts a game. Carter is 6'6" but plays most of his minutes as a small ball five.
The Panthers are a proud program that would've been right on the cut line for an at-large had the 2020 NCAA Tournament had it happened. They're quite lucky to be the 1 seed but when they're hitting shots, they'll be hard to beat.
#2 Missouri State Bears (Kempom 63, T-Rank 74)
The Bears are the clear second favorite to win the tournament and feature a national top-25 offense. This is one of the best shooting teams outside the power conferences, they're shooting 37% on 3's, 55% on 2's and 80% at the line.
This is a two man team. Isiaih Mobley (#1) is a fantastic combo guard who is shooting a staggering 52% on 7 mid-range attempts a game, and 42% on 5 3 point attempts a game. He leads the conference in usage. Gaige Prim (#44) is a 6'9" big who leads the conference in block rate and is a great finisher at the rim.
Missouri State has not been to the Big Dance since a 1999 trip to the Sweet 16. This team not only has the capability to make it to the tournament, but they can win a game once there.
#3 Drake Bulldogs (Kenpom 88, T-Rank 89)
The Bulldogs are a veteran squad that returns lots of minutes from last year's NCAA tournament team. They play a lot of iso ball, ranking near the bottom of D1 in assists per field goals made. They have a balanced squad with no player exceeding a 24% usage rate.
The most important contributors are senior guards Roman Penn (#1) and Garrett Sturtz (#3). At six feet, Penn is a true point guard who is more of a distributor than a scorer. Sturtz loves to drive to the bucket and is a good finisher when he gets there.
Drake is coming off their best season in a decade, as they snuck into the NCAA tournament, winning a First Four Game and bowing out the USC in the Round of 64. This team got some at-large buzz in the preseason before an 0-3 trip to the ESPN Events Invitational in November killed those hopes, but they are a contender at Arch Madness.
#4 Loyola Chicago Ramblers (Kenpom 30, T-Rank 47)
The Ramblers are the most balanced team in the field with a top 50 offense and defense. This is a veteran team that likes to play slow. They love to shoot the 3 and do it very efficiently, making them one of the best shooting team in D1.
The Ramblers have a deep rotation but the most important players are Lucas Williamson (#1) and Braden Norris (#4). The upperclassmen guards both shoot 40% from 3 on decent volume. Norris is more of a true point guard who leads the team in assist rate while Williamson is a scorer who is not afraid to go to the rim to find his shot.
Loyola is the clear favorite to win the tournament, and they have been the class of the conference for the last 5 years. They are in the thick of the NCAA tournament picture here and likely need a win or two in St. Louis to have a chance at an at-large.
#5 Bradley Braves (Kenpom 90, T-Rank 87)
The Braves are the most defensive-oriented team in the field. Unsurprisingly, they're also the biggest, with plenty of lineups featuring 3 6'7" players or taller. They do well on the offensive glass but turn the ball over too much.
Sophomore Dutch big man Rienk Mast (#51) is the most intriguing player on this team. He's taken big strides from his freshman year and is very productive on the offensive and defensive glass. Terry Roberts (#0) adds to the league's collection of good upperclassmen guards.
Bradley has won this tournament as a middling seed twice recently, in 2019 and 2020. This team is a bit better than those ones, so they have to be taken seriously as a contender.
#6 Southern Illinois Salukis (Kenpom 119, T-Rank 120)
The Salukis have a unique style of basketball, playing at one of the slowest tempos in all of Division 1. They shoot the 3 well but struggle a lot on the offensive glass.
Like Missouri State, this is a two man team. Junior guard Lance Jones (#5) has a league-high usage rate (31%) although lacks the efficiency numbers to back it up. Marcus Domask (#1) mainly plays the 4 and is the team's most efficient player.
The Salukis are unlucky to be 16-14 as they have lost lots of close games. This program went to 6 consecutive NCAA tournaments from 2002 to 2007 with 2 trips to the Sweet 16, they'll be looking for their first ticket to the Big Dance in 15 years.
#7 Valparaiso Beacons (Kenpom 202, T-Rank 215)
The Beacons are an OK shooting team but pretty poor on the glass. They like to play pretty slow, especially on defense where they force long possessions.
The best player on the team is big man Ben Krikke (#23). The 6'9" Canadian finishes well at the rim and is a good free throw shooter for his size. Senior guard Kobe King (#35) shoots a decent amount of mid-range and takes good care of the ball.
Valparaiso basketball has been dominated by the Drew family, with patriarch Homer coaching the Beacons for two decades and sons Scott and Bryce having stints as well. In 2016, Valpo nearly got an at-large and made it to the NIT championship game. Since then, it's been all downhill.
#8 Illinois State Redbirds (Kenpom 184, T-Rank 195)
The Redbirds have a fun up-tempo offense, they like to run the floor and they shoot the 3 well. Their defense, however, is quite poor, and they struggle on the glass.
Junior wing Antonio Reeves (#12) does a lot for the Redbirds, he shoots 39% from 3 on 6 attempts a game. A lot of his baskets are assisted by 5'10" point guard Mark Freeman (#0), a transfer from Tennessee State who is a good passer but not much of a shooter.
Dan Muller is in his 10th year at Illinois State and his 2017 squad should have gotten an at-large bid, but fell just short and got a 1 seed in the NIT. Outside of that, it's been a pretty rough decade for the Redbirds.