Bracketology 2/10/2022

Baylor and Kansas have swapped spots in this update after Kansas’ loss to Texas and Baylor’s win over Kansas State. Baylor, Kansas, Arizona and Kentucky are all pretty evenly matched for the last spot on the 1 line right now.

At the bubble, San Francisco and Loyola Chicago are playing themselves into some real bubble trouble with losses to Portland and Bradley in the last few days. SMU is charging back into the picture after a home win against Houston.

1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Purdue, Baylor

2: Kansas, Arizona, Kentucky, Wisconsin

3: Duke, Houston, Providence, Texas Tech

4: Villanova, UCLA, Tennessee, Illinois

5: Texas, Marquette, Michigan State, LSU

6: Ohio State, Connecticut, USC, Xavier

7: St. Mary’s, Iowa State, Murray State, Arkansas

8: Wyoming, Indiana, Alabama, Boise State

9: Iowa, Wake Forest, Colorado State, Seton Hall

10: Davidson, TCU, Loyola Chicago, North Carolina

11: San Francisco, Oregon, BYU, Notre Dame

12: (Miami (FL)/Florida), (Saint Louis/San Diego State), UAB, Iona

13: Chattanooga, Wagner, South Dakota State, Ohio

14: Vermont, New Mexico State, Liberty, Cleveland State

15: Yale, Cal State Fullerton, Appalachian State, Colgate

16: Weber State, UNC Wilmington, (Longwood/Southern), (New Orleans/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: Michigan, Oklahoma, SMU, North Texas

Next Four Out: West Virginia, Mississippi State, Kansas State, Belmont

Bracketology 2/7/2022

Saturday was one of the best days of the college hoops season, with tons of bubble teams in action. Some power conference teams, such as Creighton and West Virginia, are picking up unworkable loss totals and dropped from the field. Others, like Kansas State and Saint Louis, were not close to the bubble radar but are moving up on the back of big wins.

I’ll have another update in midweek, after some bubble teams like Arkansas, Utah State and Wyoming play.

1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Kansas, Purdue

2: Baylor, Arizona, Kentucky, Duke

3: Houston, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Providence

4: Villanova, UCLA, Illinois, Tennessee

5: Michigan State, Marquette, Ohio State, Iowa State

6: Texas, LSU, St. Mary’s, Xavier

7: USC, Indiana, Connecticut, Murray State

8: Wyoming, Alabama, San Francisco, Boise State

9: Loyola Chicago, Iowa, Wake Forest, Arkansas

10: Colorado State, Davidson, TCU, Seton Hall

11: Oregon, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Miami (FL)

12: (Florida/Saint Louis), (San Diego State/Mississippi State), UAB, Iona

13: Chattanooga, Wagner, South Dakota State, Ohio

14: Vermont, New Mexico State, Liberty, Cleveland State

15: Yale, Cal State Fullerton, Appalachian State, Colgate

16: Weber State, UNC Wilmington, (Longwood/Southern), (New Orleans/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: North Texas, Kansas State, Michigan, Belmont

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Dayton, Washington State, West Virginia

Bracketology 2/5/2022

This is going to be one of the most impactful bracket Saturdays of the year. Baylor/Kansas is obviously the headliner, but a majority of teams in the projected field are in action today. I’ll have a new update Monday morning after I go through everyone’s resume this weekend.

1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona

2: Purdue, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA

3: Villanova, Houston, Duke, Michigan State

4: Wisconsin, Illinois, Texas Tech, Providence

5: Tennessee, Xavier, Alabama, LSU

6: USC, Marquette, Texas, Iowa State

7: Ohio State, St. Mary’s, Indiana, Connecticut

8: Davidson, Murray State, San Francisco, Loyola Chicago

9: Colorado State, TCU, Boise State, Iowa

10: Seton Hall, Wyoming, Arkansas, BYU

11: Iona, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Wake Forest

12: North Carolina, (West Virginia/Creighton), (San Diego State/Florida), UAB

13: Chattanooga, Ohio, Wagner, Vermont

14: South Dakota State, Oakland, Towson, Jacksonville State

15: Princeton, Seattle, Weber State, Navy

16: Appalachian State, Longwood, (Hawai’i/New Orleans), (Alcorn State/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: Notre Dame, Oregon, Michigan, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, UAB, SMU, Washington State

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 8

Big East: 7

Big Ten: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

West Coast: 4

Pac-12: 3

Bracketology 2/3/2022

Tonight’s Arizona/UCLA matchup is massive in the race for a 1 seed. Both teams will have a good shot at it with a win, although opportunities are limited in the Pac-12 which has only those two teams and USC in the projected field.

1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Baylor, Purdue

2: Arizona, Kansas, UCLA, Kentucky

3: Villanova, Houston, Duke, Michigan State

4: Wisconsin, LSU, Texas Tech, Providence

5: Tennessee, Xavier, Alabama, LSU

6: USC, Marquette, Texas, Iowa State

7: Ohio State, St. Mary’s, Indiana, Connecticut

8: Davidson, Murray State, Boise State, Loyola Chicago

9: San Francisco, BYU, TCU, Iowa

10: Colorado State, Wyoming, Arkansas, Seton Hall

11: Iona, Oklahoma, Creighton, Miami (FL)

12: Wake Forest, (North Carolina/San Diego State), (West Virginia/Florida), UAB

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Wagner, Vermont

14: South Dakota State, Oakland, Towson, Jacksonville State

15: Princeton, Seattle, Weber State, Navy

16: Appalachian State, Longwood, (Hawai’i/New Orleans), (Alcorn State/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: Notre Dame, Oregon, Michigan, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, UAB, Stanford, SMU

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 8

Big East: 7

Big Ten: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

West Coast: 4

Pac-12: 3

Bracketology 1/31/2022

The biggest result of the weekend was Kentucky going to Lawrence and beating the brakes off Kansas in the Big 12/SEC challenge. The Wildcats are a tricky team to seed as they have the predictive metrics of an A-list national title contender, but don’t have the depth of Q1 wins of some other teams. For now, both Kentucky and Kansas land on the 2 line.

On the bubble, Creighton and Mississippi State have fallen out of the field after weekend losses. Oregon and Florida take their place in the bracket.

1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona

2: Villanova, Kansas, Purdue, Kentucky

3: UCLA, Houston, Wisconsin, Michigan State

4: Providence, Duke, LSU, Texas Tech

5: Illinois, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee

6: Xavier, USC, Iowa State, Connecticut

7: Ohio State, St. Mary’s, Indiana, Marquette

8: Murray State, Boise State, Iowa, Davidson

9: Colorado State, San Francisco, Loyola Chicago, BYU

10: Miami (FL), Oklahoma, TCU, West Virginia

11: Arkansas, Iona, Wyoming, Seton Hall

12: Wake Forest, (San Diego State/Florida), (North Carolina/Oregon), UAB

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Wagner, Vermont

14: South Dakota State, Oakland, Towson, Jacksonville State

15: Princeton, Seattle, Weber State, Navy

16: Appalachian State, Longwood, (Hawai’i/New Orleans), (Southern/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: Michigan, Creighton, Notre Dame, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, UAB, Florida State, Stanford

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 8

Big Ten: 7

SEC: 7

Big East: 6

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

Pac-12: 4

West Coast: 4

Bracketology 1/29/2022

There’s been some big movers up and down the seed list in the last few weeks, and no conference has seen more movement than the Big East. Marquette has won 7 straight and Providence is 12-1 in their last 13 (with their only loss to the Golden Eagles). Both teams have gone from the bubble to comfortably in the field, and they play again tomorrow. On the other end of the conference, Seton Hall and Creighton are in freefall and are nearly out of the field.

1: Auburn, Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas

2: Arizona, Villanova, Purdue, UCLA

3: LSU, Houston, Wisconsin, Duke

4: Texas Tech, Michigan State, Providence, Tennessee

5: Illinois, Kentucky, USC, Iowa State

6: Ohio State, Marquette, Texas, Xavier

7: Alabama, BYU, Connecticut, St. Mary’s

8: Boise State, Loyola Chicago, Indiana, Murray State

9: Iowa, Davidson, Colorado State, Wake Forest

10: West Virginia, Oklahoma, San Francisco, Miami (FL)

11: Iona, Wyoming, Seton Hall, San Diego State

12: Arkansas, UAB, (TCU/Creighton), (North Carolina/Mississippi State)

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Wagner, Vermont

14: South Dakota State, Oakland, Towson, Liberty

15: Princeton, Seattle, Weber State, Navy

16: South Alabama, Winthrop, (Cal State Fullerton/New Orleans), (Southern/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: Michigan, Florida State, Florida, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Stanford, Oregon, Belmont, Notre Dame

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 8

Big East: 7

Big Ten: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

West Coast: 4

Pac-12: 3

Bracketology 1/24/2022

We’ve seen some decent movement around the buble in the last week. Marquette has been a big winner, picking up back to back wins against Villanova and Xavier to move from an 11 seed to a 7 seed. North Carolina has moved out of the field for the first time all year after losses to Miami and Wake Forest.

1: Auburn, Baylor, Arizona, Gonzaga

2: Kansas, Villanova, LSU, Houston

3: Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, UCLA

4: Texas Tech, USC, Duke, Tennessee

5: Kentucky, Alabama, Providence, Xavier

6: Illinois, Ohio State, BYU, Iowa State

7: Colorado State, Seton Hall, Marquette, Connecticut

8: Davidson, Texas, Loyola Chicago, West Virginia

9: Indiana, Murray State, St. Mary’s, Iowa

10: Wake Forest, San Francisco, Wyoming, TCU

11: Boise State, Creighton, San Diego State, Iona

12: Florida, (Miami (FL)/Oklahoma), (Arkansas/Florida State), UAB

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Wagner, Vermont

14: South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Towson

15: Liberty, Princeton, Weber State, Colgate

16: South Alabama, Winthrop, (Cal State Fullerton/New Orleans), (Southern/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: UAB, Mississippi State, Michigan, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: North Carolina, Minnesota, Oregon, Belmont

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 8

Big East: 7

Big Ten: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

West Coast: 4

Pac-12: 3

Bracketology 1/17/2022

There was some interesting bubble action over the weekend, highlighted by Murray State going to Nashville and destroying Belmont on the road. Both teams have solid at-large prospects with wins over Memphis and Alabama, respectively. Elswhere, BYU beat San Francisco on the road and moves closer to a protected seed.

1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona

2: Kansas, Villanova, Duke, Houston

3: Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Purdue

4: LSU, Michigan State, USC, Kentucky

5: Ohio State, BYU, Providence, Xavier

6: Texas Tech, UCLA, Iowa, Loyola Chicago

7: Texas, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Alabama

8: West Virginia, Tennessee, Colorado State, San Diego State

9: Indiana, Oklahoma, TCU, North Carolina

10: Wake Forest, San Francisco, Davidson, Murray State

11: Wyoming, Marquette, Mississippi State, Creighton

12: (Miami (FL)/Belmont), (St. Mary’s/Florida), UAB, Iona

13: Ohio, New Mexico State, Oakland, Chattanooga

14: South Dakota State, Wagner, Princeton, Navy

15: Hofstra, Texas State, UC Irvine, Vermont

16: Liberty, Norfolk State, (UNC Asheville/Southern Utah), (Nicholls State/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: UAB, Oregon, Boise State, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Minnesota, Memphis, SMU, VCU

Bracketology 1/15/2022

It’s shaping up to be an interesting season at the top of the bracket. Auburn is set up well for their first 1 seed since 1999, and Arizona has a shot at their first 1 seed since 2014. It’s a tough road ahead for the Wildcats though, there’s two other great teams in the Pac-12 in USC and UCLA but the middle of the league is quite weak.

1: Baylor, Auburn, Gonzaga, Arizona

2: Kansas, Villanova, LSU, Duke

3: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Houston, Illinois

4: Purdue, Texas Tech, USC, Iowa State

5: Ohio State, Xavier, UCLA, Seton Hall

6: Texas, Alabama, BYU, Providence

7: Loyola Chicago, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia

8: Iowa, Connecticut, Colorado State, Oklahoma

9: San Francisco, San Diego State, Indiana, North Carolina

10: TCU, Davidson, Belmont, Wake Forest

11: Creighton, Miami (FL), Wyoming, St. Mary’s

12: (Marquette/Mississippi State), (Minnesota/Murray State), UAB, Iona

13: Ohio, New Mexico State, Oakland, Chattanooga

14: South Dakota State, Wagner, Princeton, Navy

15: Hofstra, Texas State, UC Irvine, Vermont

16: Liberty, Norfolk State, (UNC Asheville/Southern Utah), (Nicholls State/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Memphis, UAB, Boise State, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Clemson, Florida, UCF, SMU

Bracketology 1/7/2022

Conference play is underway across the country and there’s some movement throughout the seed list in this update. This looks like quite a promising year for at-large bids from non-power conferences, a weak ACC and a top-heavy Pac-12 both sending 3 teams in this update leaves room for 9 teams from the WCC, Missouri Valley and Ohio Valley.

1: Baylor, Arizona, Kansas, Auburn

2: Gonzaga, Duke, LSU, Michigan State

3: Villanova, Houston, Alabama, Purdue

4: USC, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa State

5: Xavier, Seton Hall, Illinois, Ohio State

6: Colorado State, Providence, Texas, Tennessee

7: Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, BYU, West Virginia

8: Texas Texas, Kentucky, Iowa, San Francisco

9: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Indiana, TCU

10: Minnesota, Wake Forest, Belmont, Creighton

11: Davidson, St. Mary’s, Mississippi State, Wyoming

12: (Memphis/San Diego State), (Murray State/Florida), UAB, Iona

13: Chattanooga, Ohio, New Mexico State, Oakland

14: South Dakota State, Wagner, James Madison, Princeton

15: Navy, Texas State, UC Irvine, Vermont

16: Liberty, Norfolk State, (UNC Asheville/Southern Utah), (Nicholls State/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)

Next Four Out: Clemson, Boise State, SMU, VCU

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big 12: 8

SEC: 7

Big East: 6

West Coast: 4

ACC: 3

Mountain West: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

Ohio Valley: 2

Bracketology 12/31/2021

It’s been a pretty quiet few weeks between the usual break around Christmas and lots of teams going into COVID pause. We enter the new year with plenty of unfamiliar faces in the at-large conversation: San Francisco, Northwestern and DePaul are among the unusual suspects with real chances at a bid. Updates will be at least weekly from now until Selection Sunday.

1: Baylor, Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona

2: Kansas, Duke, USC, Auburn

3: UCLA, LSU, Michigan State, Alabama

4: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Iowa State

5: Houston, Villanova, Providence, Kentucky

6: Texas, Xavier, Connecticut, Oklahoma

7: Colorado State, Loyola Chicago, Illinois, Texas Tech

8: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Indiana, North Carolina

9: BYU, Wake Forest, West Virginia, San Francisco

10: UCF, Iowa, Creighton, Florida

11: St. Mary’s, St. Bonaventure, San Diego State, (Northwestern/Virginia Tech)

12: (Michigan/Davidson), UAB, Belmont, Chattanooga

13: Iona, South Dakota State, UC Irvine, Ohio

14: New Mexico State, Oakland, Vermont, Southern Utah

15: Liberty, Princeton, Wagner, Georgia State

16: James Madison, Navy, (Campbell/Texas Southern), (Nicholls State/Howard)

First Four Out: Creighton, Florida State, Wyoming, DePaul

Next Four Out: Arkansas, Wichita State, Memphis, Mississippi State

Bracketology 12/13/2021

We’re now a month into the season, and there’s been some significant movement across the bracket. I had Arizona as a 9 seed in my preseason bracket but they have risen all the way to the top line after some nice wins over Michigan and Illinois, among others. The biggest underperformers include Michigan (1 seed to 10 seed), Memphis (3 seed to out of field) and Oregon (4 seed to out of field).

I’ll likely update my seed list at least weekly from here on out.

1: Baylor, Arizona, Purdue, Kansas

2: Alabama, USC, Gonzaga, UCLA

3: LSU, Duke, Michigan State, Tennessee

4: Auburn, Xavier, Villanova, Ohio State

5: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Houston, Texas

6: Seton Hall, Connecticut, BYU, North Carolina

7: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Colorado State, Kentucky

8: Loyola Chicago, Illinois, San Francisco, Arkansas

9: Providence, Minnesota, St. Mary’s, Wake Forest

10: West Virginia, DePaul, Indiana, Michigan

11: Florida, St. Bonaventure, Wyoming, UAB

12: (Iowa/Virginia Tech), (Northwestern/UCF), Belmont, Chattanooga

13: Iona, South Dakota State, UC Irvine, Ohio

14: Liberty, New Mexico State, Oakland, Weber State

15: Vermont, Princeton, South Alabama, James Madison

16: Navy, Campbell, (Wagner/Texas Southern), (Nicholls State/Howard)

First Four Out: Utah State, San Diego State, Marquette, Memphis

Next Four Out: Creighton, Louisville, Florida State, Wichita State

2021-22 Preseason Bracketology

With college basketball season just days away, it’s time for my first bracketology of the year. Baylor and Gonzaga were the top two overall seeds in my preseason bracket last year and went on to meet in the national championship game, we’ll see if Gonzaga and Kansas can repeat that this year. Overall, the preseason bracket is a decent predictor for the actual tournament. Historical data suggests that around 14 of the top 16 teams and 26 of the top 32 teams listed here will make the NCAA tournament.

1: Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, Michigan

2: Purdue, Illinois, Baylor, Texas

3: Memphis, Villanova, Duke, Houston

4: Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Tennessee

5: Kentucky, Connecticut, Arkansas, Maryland

6: St. Bonaventure, Texas Tech, USC, Michigan State

7: Xavier, Auburn, Florida State, Indiana

8: Florida, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Loyola Chicago

9: Arizona, West Virginia, San Diego State, BYU

10: Virginia Tech, Virginia, Louisville, Seton Hall

11: San Francisco, St. Mary’s, Iowa, (LSU/Wisconsin)

12: (Colorado/UCF), UAB, Belmont, Ohio

13: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Liberty, Colgate

14: Georgia State, Vermont, Wright State, New Mexico State

15: Furman, Southern Utah, Iona, Northeastern

16: Winthrop, Yale, (Bryant/Prairie View A&M) (Nicholls State/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Colorado State, Richmond, Utah State

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, St. John’s, Nevada, Butler

Bracketology 3/14/2021 FINAL

Selection Sunday is only minutes away. Here is my final update of the year, Houston and Colgate’s wins mean there are no changes from this morning’s update. Best of luck to all of my fellow bracketologists, and as always, a huge thanks to the Bracket Matrix for another year of compiling everyone’s picks.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Oklahoma State

3: Texas, Houston, Arkansas, Kansas

4: West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia, Florida State

5: Tennessee, Creighton, USC, Villanova

6: Colorado, Missouri, BYU, Oregon

7: Wisconsin, San Diego State, LSU, Texas Tech

8: Clemson, North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma

9: Florida, Georgia Tech, Loyola Chicago, Rutgers

10: St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, VCU, Michigan State

11: Maryland, Drake, (Louisville/UCLA), (Syracuse/Utah State)

12: Georgetown, Colgate, Winthrop, Oregon State

13: UC Santa Barbara, North Texas, Ohio, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Morehead State, Eastern Washington

15: Drexel, Grand Canyon, Iona, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Appalachian State), (Norfolk State/Texas Southern)

Also Considered: Wichita State, Saint Louis, Mississippi, Colorado State, Boise State

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Pac-12: 5

Big East: 4

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

Mountain West: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/14/2021 AM

A crazy Saturday was headlined by two bid stealers, Georgetown and Oregon State. I have put both the Hoyas and the Beavers on the 12 line for now, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Oregon State get a 13 seed instead.

The bubble comes down to 10 teams for 5 spots for me. Among those 10, I feel pretty good that Drake/Louisville/Syracuse are in and Mississippi/Colorado State/Boise State are out. UCLA, Utah State, Wichita State and Saint Louis could go either way. My guess is that most other bracketologists will go with the same field I have, with some subbing out Utah State for Wichita State. I do think many people underappreciate how much danger UCLA is in, their profile is quite shaky.

My final update (including a bracket in addition to a seed list) will be posted today around 4:30 PM Central- I’ll have a contingency in case Cincinnati beats Houston. If the Bearcats do pull the upset, I expect them to be a 13 seed.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Oklahoma State

3: Texas, Houston, Arkansas, Kansas

4: West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia, Florida State

5: Tennessee, Creighton, USC, Villanova

6: Colorado, Missouri, BYU, Oregon

7: Wisconsin, San Diego State, LSU, Texas Tech

8: Clemson, North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma

9: Florida, Georgia Tech, Loyola Chicago, Rutgers

10: St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, VCU, Michigan State

11: Maryland, Drake, (Louisville/UCLA), (Syracuse/Utah State)

12: Georgetown, Colgate, Winthrop, Oregon State

13: UC Santa Barbara, North Texas, Ohio, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Morehead State, Eastern Washington

15: Drexel, Grand Canyon, Iona, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Appalachian State), (Norfolk State/Texas Southern)

Also Considered: Wichita State, Saint Louis, Mississippi, Colorado State, Boise State

Moving In: Georgetown, Oregon State, North Texas, Ohio, Norfolk State, Texas Southern

Moving Out: Wichita State, Colorado State, Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Morgan State, Prairie View A&M

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Pac-12: 5

Big East: 4

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

Mountain West: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/13/2021

We’re now less than 48 hours from Selection Sunday and there’s still more movement on the bubble to come. For now, I have moved Mississippi out of the field and put Utah State in their place. The Aggies have a home sweep against San Diego State to their name, and their NET rating looks quite good compared to the rest of the bubble. Still, they’d be advised to beat the Aztecs for a third time today and remove all doubt about their tournament future.

A few bid stealers still lurk- Georgetown, Oregon State, Cincinnati and Memphis. The math indicates the most likely scenario is that we have 1 bid stolen this year although it’s possible there’s more. Slotting these teams into the seed list will be a challenge given the lack of precedent for major conference bid stealers, 2008 Georgia is the main example that springs to mind.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Kansas, Texas

4: West Virginia, Virginia, Florida State, Purdue

5: Tennessee, Colorado, USC, Villanova

6: Creighton, Missouri, BYU, Texas Tech

7: Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State, Florida

8: Oklahoma, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: LSU, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure

10: VCU, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia Tech

11: Wichita State, Michigan State, Drake, UCLA

12: (Louisville/Colorado State), (Syracuse/Utah State), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Buffalo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Abilene Christian

15: Grand Canyon, Iona, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Mississippi, Saint Louis, Boise State, Xavier

Also Considered: Memphis, Duke

Moving In: Buffalo, Eastern Washington, Utah State

Moving Out: Toledo, Southern Utah, Mississippi

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/12/2021

Conference tournament Thursday doesn’t disappoint and yesterday was no exception. A few teams essentially wrapped up their bids- I’d count North Carolina, Maryland and Georgia Tech in this group. As far as changes to the field, I moved Syracuse into the field despite their loss to Virginia, replacing Boise State. They could move back out if Utah State beats Colorado State in the Mountain West semis tonight.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas

4: West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia, Florida State

5: USC, Tennessee, Villanova, Creighton

6: Colorado, Missouri, BYU, Texas Tech

7: Wisconsin, Florida, Clemson, San Diego State

8: Oklahoma, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Rutgers, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: North Carolina, Maryland, VCU, Georgia Tech

11: Wichita State, Michigan State, Drake, UCLA

12: (Colorado State/Louisville), (Mississippi/Syracuse), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Grand Canyon, Iona, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Saint Louis, Utah State, Boise State, Xavier

Next Four Out: SMU, Seton Hall, Memphis, Duke

Moving In: Syracuse, Morgan State

Moving Out: Boise State, North Carolina A&T

Bracketology 3/11/2021

Xavier fell to Butler yesterday. The Musketeers are going to be out of my field on Selection Sunday, they stand a small chance of making it in to the committee’s but they’re likely headed to the NIT. Syracuse would jump into the field with a win against Virginia today, replacing Mississippi. Many teams outside of the field play today in must-win situations, such as Utah State, SMU, Duke, Seton Hall and St. John’s.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton

6: Colorado, Texas Tech, Missouri, BYU

7: Wisconsin, Florida, Clemson, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Wichita State, Drake

12: (Colorado State/Louisville), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Grand Canyon, Iona, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Saint Louis, Utah State, Xavier

Next Four Out: SMU, Duke, Memphis, Seton Hall

Also Considered: St. John’s

Moving In: Iona

Moving Out: Siena

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/10/2021

Gonzaga locked up the #1 overall seed with their comeback win over BYU last night. The bubble games of power conference tournaments start in earnest today. Xavier, Duke, NC State and Syracuse all face must-win games today to keep their tournament hopes alive.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton

6: Colorado, Clemson, Texas Tech, Missouri

7: BYU, Wisconsin, Florida, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Drake

12: (Wichita State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Siena, Grand Canyon, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, North Carolina State, Duke

Also Considered: Memphis, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond

Moving In: Mount St. Mary’s

Moving Out: Bryant

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/9/2021

Two more bids were punched yesterday, with UNC Greensboro and Appalachian State heading to the tournament. Wes Miller has led UNCG to their fourth straight top 100 finish, a pretty remarkable feat for that program.

Looking ahead to today, the ACC tournament starts with Duke playing in the opening round. A win over Boston College is a must to keep tournament hopes alive.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton

6: Colorado, Clemson, BYU, Texas Tech

7: Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Drake

12: (Wichita State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Bryant, Siena, Grand Canyon, Drexel

16: Cleveland State, Hartford, (Oral Roberts/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, North Carolina State, Duke

Also Considered: Memphis, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond

Moving In: Oral Roberts, Drexel, Appalachian State

Moving Out: South Dakota State, Hofstra, Georgia State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2