Bracketology 3/13/2021
We’re now less than 48 hours from Selection Sunday and there’s still more movement on the bubble to come. For now, I have moved Mississippi out of the field and put Utah State in their place. The Aggies have a home sweep against San Diego State to their name, and their NET rating looks quite good compared to the rest of the bubble. Still, they’d be advised to beat the Aztecs for a third time today and remove all doubt about their tournament future.
A few bid stealers still lurk- Georgetown, Oregon State, Cincinnati and Memphis. The math indicates the most likely scenario is that we have 1 bid stolen this year although it’s possible there’s more. Slotting these teams into the seed list will be a challenge given the lack of precedent for major conference bid stealers, 2008 Georgia is the main example that springs to mind.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois
2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston
3: Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Kansas, Texas
4: West Virginia, Virginia, Florida State, Purdue
5: Tennessee, Colorado, USC, Villanova
6: Creighton, Missouri, BYU, Texas Tech
7: Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State, Florida
8: Oklahoma, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon
9: LSU, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure
10: VCU, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia Tech
11: Wichita State, Michigan State, Drake, UCLA
12: (Louisville/Colorado State), (Syracuse/Utah State), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Buffalo, Liberty
14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Abilene Christian
15: Grand Canyon, Iona, Drexel, Cleveland State
16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/Morgan State)
First Four Out: Mississippi, Saint Louis, Boise State, Xavier
Also Considered: Memphis, Duke
Moving In: Buffalo, Eastern Washington, Utah State
Moving Out: Toledo, Southern Utah, Mississippi
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
Pac-12: 4
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2