Bracketology 3/8/2021
Sunday featured two big developments on the bubble. The first was Loyola beating Drake in the Arch Madness finals. I think Drake is probably in anyways, but a First Four trip is quite possible and it wouldn’t shock me if they ended up missing the field all together. The second was Michigan State beating Michigan in East Lansing. That all but locks up a bid for the Spartans.
I’ll be updating things daily from now until Selection Sunday. Monday is going to be the quietest day of the week before things really amp up in the power conferences later in the week.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois
2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston
3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State
4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC
5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton
6: Colorado, Clemson, BYU, Texas Tech
7: Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Oklahoma
8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon
9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU
10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland
11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Drake
12: (Wichita State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty
14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian
15: South Dakota State, Bryant, Georgia State, Siena
16: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, (Hofstra/Hartford), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, North Carolina State, Duke
Also Considered: Memphis, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond
Moving In: Hofstra
Moving Out: James Madison
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 7
Pac-12: 4
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 3/7/2021
A busy Saturday leads to changes up and down the seed list. At the bubble, I have moved Xavier out after another Q2 loss to Marquette. In their place is Ole Miss, who is in the field for the first time in weeks. Overall, it was a pretty weak showing from bubble teams yesterday with Xavier, Saint Louis, Seton Hall and Duke all losing.
Towards the top of the seed list, Villanova is sliding fast and may not even be a protected seed if they are bounced early from the Big East tournament. Illinois has all but locked up the final 1 seed as well.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois
2: Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa, Houston
3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State
4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC
5: Florida State, Virginia, Creighton, Tennessee
6: Colorado, Clemson, Texas Tech, BYU
7: Wisconsin, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma
8: San Diego State, Connecticut, Oregon, Virginia Tech
9: Loyola Chicago, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU
10: VCU, Maryland, North Carolina, UCLA
11: Georgia Tech, Drake, Louisville, Wichita State
12: (Michigan State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty
14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian
15: South Dakota State, Bryant, Georgia State, Siena
16: James Madison, Grand Canyon, (Cleveland State/Hartford), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, Utah State, Memphis
Also Considered: Duke, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond
Moving In: Mississippi, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Bryant, Georgia State, Hartford
Moving Out: Xavier, Belmont, Eastern Washington, Wagner, Texas State, Vermont
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 7
Pac-12: 4
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 3/6/2021
Liberty is the first team to punch their tournament bid, they’ll represent the ASUN in the tournament even if they lose to North Alabama. Colorado State lost a wacky game against Nevada but remains my last team in the field for now.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois
2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston
3: Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas
4: Florida State, Creighton, Purdue, Oklahoma State
5: Virginia, Texas, USC, Wisconsin
6: Colorado, BYU, Tennessee, Texas Tech
7: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Clemson
8: San Diego State, Oregon, Loyola Chicago, UCLA
9: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, Maryland
10: St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, North Carolina, VCU
11: LSU, Drake, Georgia Tech, Wichita State
12: (Michigan State/Boise State), (Xavier/Colorado State), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo
14: Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington
15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Cleveland State, Texas State, (Wagner/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Saint Louis, Seton Hall, SMU, Duke
Next Four Out: Indiana, Memphis, Syracuse, Western Kentucky
Also Considered: Mississippi, Utah State
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 3/5/2021
We’re now less than 10 days from Selection Sunday. The last two nights were a little quieter on the bubble, Seton Hall dropped their third straight against UConn and has a tough game at St. John’s to end the regular season. I dropped the Pirates from the field and moved Boise State in in their place.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois
2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston
3: Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas
4: Florida State, Creighton, Purdue, Oklahoma State
5: Virginia, Texas, USC, Wisconsin
6: Colorado, BYU, Tennessee, Texas Tech
7: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Clemson
8: San Diego State, Oregon, Loyola Chicago, UCLA
9: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, Maryland
10: Rutgers, North Carolina, St. Bonaventure, LSU
11: VCU, Drake, Georgia Tech, Wichita State
12: (Michigan State/Colorado State), (Xavier/Boise State), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo
14: Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington
15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Texas State, Wagner, (Cleveland State/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Saint Louis, Western Kentucky, Seton Hall, SMU
Next Four Out: Duke, Indiana, Memphis, Syracuse
Also Considered: Mississippi, Utah State
Moving In: Seton Hall, Cleveland State
Moving Out: Boise State, Wright State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 3/3/2021
A busy two days on the bubble once again. Michigan State and Georgia Tech continue to shore up their tournament cases with wins over fellow bubble teams Indiana and Duke. At the same time, some non-power bubble teams are playing themselves into trouble, as St. Bonaventure lost to Dayton while Richmond and Boise State took Q4 losses to Saint Joe’s and Fresno State, respectively.
The bubble is starting to shrink, the top ~40 teams in the seed list are pretty safe while any team beyond the Next Four Out is pretty far from the field. There might be one surprise or two down the stretch, but for now it looks like we have around 16 teams for 8 spots.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois
2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston
3: West Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Arkansas
4: Florida State, Creighton, Oklahoma State, Purdue
5: Virginia, USC, Wisconsin, Colorado
6: Texas, BYU, Clemson, Oklahoma
7: Florida, Tennessee, Texas Tech, San Diego State
8: UCLA, Missouri, Oregon, Loyola Chicago
9: Maryland, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Rutgers
10: North Carolina, Connecticut, St. Bonaventure, LSU
11: VCU, Drake, Michigan State, Georgia Tech
12: (Wichita State/Xavier), (Colorado State/Seton Hall), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo
14: Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington
15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Texas State, Wagner, (Cleveland State/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Boise State, Western Kentucky, SMU, Saint Louis
Next Four Out: Duke, Indiana, Memphis, Minnesota
Also Considered: Mississippi, Richmond, Utah State, St. Mary’s
Moving In: Seton Hall, Cleveland State
Moving Out: Boise State, Wright State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 3/1/2021
A busy weekend leads to changes throughout the seed list. At the top, Illinois rises to the top line for the first time all year. Gonzaga, Michigan and Baylor are entrenched as 1 seeds but the fourth spot is very much up for grabs. Towards the bubble, teams like Virginia Tech and LSU are playing their way into some danger while Connecticut and Xavier got nice wins to give themselves some cushion.
1: Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor, Illinois
2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, West Virginia
3: Houston, Villanova, Kansas, Florida State
4: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Creighton, Purdue
5: Virginia, USC, Colorado, Texas
6: Oklahoma State, BYU, Oklahoma, Clemson
7: Florida, Tennessee, Texas Tech, San Diego State
8: UCLA, Missouri, Rutgers, Oregon
9: St. Bonaventure, Loyola Chicago, Maryland, Louisville
10: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, LSU
11: VCU, Boise State, Drake, Xavier
12: (Wichita State/Georgia Tech), (Michigan State/Colorado State), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Toledo, Winthrop
14: Wright State, Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian
15: Eastern Washington, Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena
16: Grand Canyon, Texas State, (Wagner/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Seton Hall, Richmond, Indiana, Duke
Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, SMU, Memphis, Minnesota
Also Considered: Saint Louis, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Stanford
Moving In: Georgia Tech, UNC Greensboro, Vermont, South Dakota State, Wagner
Moving Out: Seton Hall, Furman, UMBC, South Dakota, Bryant
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/27/2021
Richmond moves out of the field in favor of Xavier after their close lose at Saint Louis. The Spiders need to beat Saint Joe’s on Monday and then pick up a few wins in the A-10 tourney to have a shot at the field.
Drake picked up another win at Bradley yesterday and faces a rematch with the Braves in Peoria this afternoon. I think Drake should feel pretty good about their at-large chances if they win today, they could probably withstand a loss in Arch Madness.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Iowa
3: West Virginia, Houston, Florida State, Oklahoma
4: Creighton, Kansas, Texas, Tennessee
5: Purdue, Arkansas, Virginia, USC
6: Wisconsin, Clemson, Texas Tech, Colorado
7: Florida, Missouri, Rutgers, Oklahoma State
8: BYU, Loyola Chicago, LSU, San Diego State
9: Virginia Tech, UCLA, Oregon, Louisville
10: Maryland, North Carolina, VCU, Boise State
11: Drake, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State, Michigan State
12: (Connecticut/Colorado State), (Indiana/Xavier), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo
14: Furman, Abilene Christian, Wright State, Liberty
15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison
16: UMBC, Texas State, (Bryant/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Minnesota, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Richmond
Next Four Out: Mississippi, Duke, Western Kentucky, SMU
Also Considered: Stanford, Saint Louis, Memphis, Syracuse
Moving In: Xavier, Bryant
Moving Out: Richmond, Wagner
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/26/2021
A very busy few days on the bubble. Xavier took another questionable loss to Providence, while Minnesota took a disastrous one at home against Northwestern. Both teams have fallen out of my projected field to the “First Four Out” group now. The biggest winner on the bubble is undoubtedly Michigan State, who is back in the picture for the first time in a month after big wins over Ohio State and Illinois.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Iowa
3: West Virginia, Houston, Florida State, Oklahoma
4: Creighton, Kansas, Texas, Tennessee
5: USC, Arkansas, Virginia, Purdue
6: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Clemson, Colorado
7: Florida, Missouri, Rutgers, Oklahoma State
8: BYU, Loyola Chicago, LSU, Virginia Tech
9: San Diego State, UCLA, Oregon, Louisville
10: Maryland, North Carolina, VCU, Boise State
11: Drake, St. Bonaventure, Colorado State, Wichita State
12: (Michigan State/Connecticut), (Indiana/Richmond), Western Kentucky, Colgate
13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo
14: Furman, Abilene Christian, Wright State, Liberty
15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison
16: UMBC, Texas State, (Wagner/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Xavier, Minnesota, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Mississippi, Duke, Western Kentucky, SMU
Also Considered: Stanford, Memphis, Syracuse, Dayton
Moving In: Connecticut, Michigan State, Richmond, Furman
Moving Out: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Xavier, UNC Greensboro
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/24/2021
An interesting few days as a lot of teams I had left for dead in the bubble race appear to be coming back to life. This includes Georgia Tech, Michigan State and Duke. I still have all three teams outside the field but I think one or two of them will work their way in.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Iowa, Villanova
3: West Virginia, Houston, Florida State, Virginia
4: Oklahoma, Creighton, USC, Kansas
5: Texas, Tennessee, Purdue, Texas Tech
6: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Clemson, Florida
7: Missouri, Oklahoma State, BYU, Colorado
8: Rutgers, Loyola Chicago, LSU, Virginia Tech
9: North Carolina, UCLA, San Diego State, Louisville
10: Boise State, Maryland, Oregon, VCU
11: Drake, Minnesota, Xavier, Indiana
12: (Colorado State/Wichita State), (St. Bonaventure/Seton Hall), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Colgate, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Toledo
14: Abilene Christian, Wright State, UNC Greensboro, Liberty
15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison
16: UMBC, Texas State, (Wagner/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Connecticut, Richmond, Michigan State, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, Mississippi, Duke, SMU
Also Considered: Stanford, Memphis, Syracuse, Dayton
Moving In: Seton Hall
Moving Out: Connecticut
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/22/2021
A busy weekend with plenty of intrigue on the bubble. North Carolina demolished Louisville, and they’ve roughly swapped places with the Tar Heels now looking pretty comfortable while Louisville is in some danger. Elsewhere on Tobacco Road, Duke is back in the conversation with a win over Virginia.
Updates will be around four times a week from now until conference tournaments begin.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Iowa, Villanova
3: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Houston, Florida State
4: Virginia, Kansas, Creighton, Texas Tech
5: Purdue, Tennessee, Missouri, USC
6: Texas, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Clemson
7: BYU, Virginia Tech, Florida, Oklahoma State
8: Colorado, Rutgers, Loyola Chicago, LSU
9: North Carolina, UCLA, San Diego State, Oregon
10: Boise State, Louisville, Maryland, Drake
11: Minnesota, Xavier, Indiana, VCU
12: (Colorado State/Wichita State), (St. Bonaventure/Connecticut), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Colgate, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Toledo
14: Abilene Christian, Wright State, UNC Greensboro, Liberty
15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison
16: UMBC, Texas State, (Wagner/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Richmond, Seton Hall, Western Kentucky, SMU
Next Four Out: Stanford, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Duke
Also Considered: Michigan State, Memphis, Saint Louis, Mississippi
Moving In: Connecticut, UMBC, James Madison, Wagner, North Carolina A&T
Moving Out: Seton Hall, Vermont, Northeastern, Bryant, Norfolk State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/20/2021
The biggest result of the last two days was Wichita State’s win over Houston. Wichita State’s profile is quite a bit better than I initially realized, they have a 2-2 record against both Q1 and Q2, no bad losses and a great win over Houston. Their efficiency numbers are pretty bad for a bubble team, but if they go 3-1 down the stretch (no small ask against a tricky schedule) I think they’ll make the field.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Iowa
3: Oklahoma, Houston, Virginia, West Virginia
4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Florida State, Texas
5: USC, Kansas, Creighton, Purdue
6: Wisconsin, Arkansas, Clemson, Missouri
7: Virginia Tech, BYU, Rutgers, Oklahoma State
8: Louisville, Colorado, LSU, Loyola Chicago
9: UCLA, Florida, VCU, Xavier
10: San Diego State, Minnesota, Oregon, Drake
11: Boise State, Indiana, Seton Hall, Colorado State
12: (North Carolina/Wichita State), (Maryland/St. Bonaventure), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Toledo, Winthrop, Colgate, UC Santa Barbara
14: Wright State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro
15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington
16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Stanford, SMU
Next Four Out: Memphis, Richmond, St. John’s, Utah State
Moving In: Wichita State
Moving Out: Connecticut
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/18/2021
The bubble picture is starting to clear up a bit. I would say that the teams on the 1 through 9 lines can feel pretty good about their tournament bids (>80% to make the field). Similarly, any team beyond the Next Four Out is probably <20% to make the tournament. That leaves 20 teams for 12 spots. While there will be a surprise or two, those 20 teams are the ones we can expect to see hanging out on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Houston, Villanova
3: Oklahoma, Virginia, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Florida State, Texas
5: USC, Kansas, Wisconsin, Creighton
6: Purdue, Arkansas, Clemson, Rutgers
7: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Colorado, BYU
8: Oklahoma State, Louisville, LSU, Loyola Chicago
9: Florida, VCU, Xavier, UCLA
10: San Diego State, Minnesota, Drake, Indiana
11: Seton Hall, Boise State, Oregon, Colorado State
12: (North Carolina/Maryland), (St. Bonaventure/Connecticut), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Toledo, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro
15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington
16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Mississippi, Stanford, SMU, Saint Louis
Next Four Out: Utah State, Memphis, Richmond, Wichita State
Moving In: Connecticut
Moving Out: Utah State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/15/2021
The committee’s reveal of their top 16 seeds on Saturday contained a few surprises. Oklahoma and Texas Tech made their list, while I had Wisconsin and USC in instead. Oklahoma followed that up with a huge win at West Virginia and so they rise from a 5 to a 3 seed in this update.
The weekend was surprisingly calm on the bubble with no teams moving in or out of the field. The biggest games were probably in Des Moines where Loyola and Drake split the two game series, keeping both their at-large hopes alive.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Houston, Virginia
3: Villanova, Oklahoma, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Texas, USC
5: Florida State, Kansas, Wisconsin, Missouri
6: Creighton, Purdue, Clemson, Rutgers
7: Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Colorado, BYU
8: Florida, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Louisville
9: Loyola Chicago, LSU, Minnesota, UCLA
10: San Diego State, VCU, Drake, Oregon
11: Maryland, Seton Hall, Colorado State, North Carolina
12: (Indiana/Boise State), (St. Bonaventure/Utah State), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Toledo, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro
15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington
16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, SMU, Saint Louis
Next Four Out: Richmond, Memphis, Stanford, St. John’s
Moving In: Norfolk State, UNC Greensboro, South Dakota
Moving Out: Morgan State, Furman, South Dakota State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/12/2021
Tomorrow afternoon the committee will do their annual reveal of their top 16 teams. The two teams I am most interested to see them place are probably Houston and Missouri. Houston is a classic example of a team from a medium sized league running up a great record, they remind me a bit of 2013 New Mexico. Missouri’s team sheet looks stellar but their predictive metrics are in line with a bubble team, and their NET of 34 roughly splits the difference between the two.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Virginia
3: Houston, West Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin
4: USC, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas
5: Kansas, Purdue, Colorado, Oklahoma
6: Texas Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Rutgers
7: Xavier, Virginia Tech, Creighton, BYU
8: Minnesota, Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma State
9: Louisville, Loyola Chicago, UCLA, San Diego State
10: Drake, North Carolina, Indiana, VCU
11: St. Bonaventure, LSU, Seton Hall, Colorado State
12: (Oregon/Boise State), (Maryland/Utah State), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Belmont, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian
15: Furman, Liberty, Vermont, Siena
16: Bryant, Texas State, (Southern Utah/Northeastern), (Morgan State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: SMU, Richmond, Penn State, Connecticut
Next Four Out: Mississippi, Memphis, Stanford, St. John’s
Moving In: Maryland, Utah State
Moving Out: Connecticut, Richmond
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/10/2021
It’s still hard to make heads or tails of Penn State. Their schedule has been absolutely ridiculous and their efficiency numbers and raw resume numbers look solid, but their record is now two games below .500. This is one of the cases where there’s no comparable resumes to look at because of the uniqueness of this season and it’s really anyone’s guess what the committee will do.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Virginia
3: Houston, Missouri, West Virginia, Wisconsin
4: USC, Tennessee, Iowa, Texas
5: Kansas, Purdue, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
6: Rutgers, Florida State, Clemson, Colorado
7: Xavier, Creighton, UCLA, BYU
8: Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Florida, Minnesota
9: Oklahoma State, Louisville, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State
10: Drake, North Carolina, VCU, Indiana
11: St. Bonaventure, Seton Hall, Colorado State, Connecticut
12: (Richmond/Boise State), (LSU/Oregon), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Belmont, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian
15: Furman, Liberty, Vermont, Siena
16: Bryant, Texas State, (Southern Utah/Northeastern), (Morgan State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: SMU, Penn State, Maryland, Stanford
Next Four Out: Memphis, St. John’s, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Moving In: Boise State, Oregon, Texas State
Moving Out: Penn State, Maryland, Georgia State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Mountain West: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/8/2021
A busy weekend with plenty of action near the bubble. The biggest loser is probably Boise State, who lost a pair of games in Reno to Nevada and has fallen out of the field. Drake also took their first loss of the season to Valparaiso and drops towards the cutline.
As for bubble winners, St. John’s has now won 6 straight and is my first team out of the field. Memphis has also strung a few wins together and enters the bubble picture, although their real statement opportunity is next Sunday when they travel to Houston.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Virginia
3: Houston, Missouri, Wisconsin, USC
4: West Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa, Texas
5: Texas Tech, Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas
6: Rutgers, Florida State, Clemson, Colorado
7: BYU, Xavier, Creighton, UCLA
8: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Florida, Minnesota
9: Arkansas, Louisville, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State
10: Drake, North Carolina, Indiana, St. Bonaventure
11: Penn State, Seton Hall, VCU, Colorado State
12: (Maryland/Connecticut), (Richmond/LSU), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Belmont, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Abilene Christian, Liberty
15: Grand Canyon, Vermont, Furman, Siena
16: Georgia State, Bryant, (Southern Utah/Northeastern), (Morgan State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: St. John’s, Boise State, Oregon, SMU
Next Four Out: Stanford, Memphis, Toledo, Georgia Tech
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 11
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Atlantic 10: 3
Pac-12: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/5/2021
There was some chaos at the top of the seed list this week, as both Villanova and Houston lost to teams outside the field. Houston’s loss to East Carolina hurts quite a bit more than Villanova’s loss to St. John’s, but they both opened up a gap for the last 1 seed. I considered Alabama and Villanova but ultimately Ohio State got it done with 7 Q1 wins, including 4 Q1-A win. Both of those marks lead the nation.
On the bubble, Oregon is out of the field for the first time all year after a tough loss to Washington State. The Ducks have not looked the same since their COVID pause and the Pac-12 is now down to just 3 bids with Oregon and Stanford just outside the field.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Alabama, Villanova, Houston, Illinois
3: Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Texas
4: Virginia, Tennessee, West Virginia, Texas Tech
5: USC, Oklahoma, Florida State, Purdue
6: UCLA, Kansas, Creighton, Xavier
7: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Drake, Clemson
8: Minnesota, Rutgers, Boise State, BYU
9: Oklahoma State, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas
10: Louisville, Connecticut, North Carolina, Loyola Chicago
11: San Diego State, VCU, LSU, Indiana
12; (Seton Hall/Colorado State), Toledo, (Richmond/Maryland), Western Kentucky
13: Winthrop, Wright State, Colgate, Belmont
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Vermont, Abilene Christian
15: Liberty, East Tennessee State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Louisiana, Bryant, (Northeastern/Montana State), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: SMU, St. John’s, Oregon, Stanford
Next Four Out: Penn State, Saint Louis, Western Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Bracketology 2/3/2021
The bottom of the Big Ten continues to battle for a spot in the bracket as Maryland knocks off Purdue to remain in the bubble conversation. I now have 4 Atlantic 10 teams in the field, but 3 of them are in the First Four and none of them are better than a 9 seed.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Houston
2: Villanova, Iowa, Alabama, Illinois
3: Ohio State, Missouri, Wisconsin, Texas
4: Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton, West Virginia
5: Texas Tech, USC, Oklahoma, Florida State
6: Purdue, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Kansas
7: Florida, Xavier, Colorado, Minnesota
8: Oklahoma State, Drake, Clemson, Boise State
9: BYU, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas
10: Louisville, Connecticut, North Carolina, Loyola Chicago
11: San Diego State, Oregon, LSU, Indiana
12; (Saint Louis/VCU), Toledo, (Colorado State/Richmond), Western Kentucky
13: Winthrop, Wright State, Colgate, Belmont
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Vermont, Abilene Christian
15: Liberty, East Tennessee State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Louisiana, Bryant, (Northeastern/Montana State), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Maryland, Seton Hall, Penn State, SMU
Next Four Out: Stanford, Western Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Utah State
Bracketology 2/1/2021
One team which intrigues me quite a bit is Penn State. The Nittany Lions have a losing record at 6-7, but their WAB and other resume metrics are worthy of at-large consideration, so I’ve put them in the First Four here after a big weekend win over Wisconsin.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Houston
2: Villanova, Iowa, Alabama, Illinois
3: Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas, Missouri
4: Wisconsin, Virginia, Creighton, West Virginia
5: Oklahoma, Purdue, Florida State, USC
6: UCLA, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Kansas
7: Florida, Xavier, Colorado, Minnesota
8: Oklahoma State, Drake, Boise State, BYU
9: Rutgers, Clemson, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas
10: North Carolina, Connecticut, San Diego State, Louisville
11: Loyola Chicago, Indiana, Oregon, LSU
12; (Saint Louis/Penn State), (VCU/Colorado State), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Winthrop, Wright State, Colgate, Belmont
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Vermont, Abilene Christian
15: Liberty, East Tennessee State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Louisiana, Bryant, (Northeastern/Montana State), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Stanford, Toledo, Richmond, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, Western Kentucky, SMU
Bracketology 1/30/2021
Arguably the game of the year in the Big Ten was last night, where Illinois edged past Iowa. The Hawkeyes could’ve risen to a 1 seed with a win but remain on the 2 line for now, while Illinois is one of 5 Big Ten teams who is a protected seed.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova
2: Houston, Iowa, Alabama, Texas
3: Virginia, Ohio State, Wisconsin, West Virginia
4: Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Florida State
5: Creighton, Tennessee, Texas Tech, UCLA
6: Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Purdue
7: Connecticut, Clemson, USC, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Drake
9: Florida, North Carolina, Louisville, BYU
10: Boise State, Rutgers, Saint Louis, Indiana
11: LSU, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas, Loyola Chicago
12: (Seton Hall/Stanford), (San Diego State/VCU), Toledo, Belmont
13: Winthrop, UAB, Wright State, South Dakota State
14: UC Santa Barbara, Wofford, Vermont, Liberty
15: Texas State, Grand Canyon, Siena, Abilene Christian
16: Northeastern, Montana State, (Navy/Bryant), (Prairie View A&M/Norfolk State)
First Four Out: Syracuse, Colorado State, Providence, Maryland
Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, Wichita State, Richmond, Utah State