Bracketology 2/10/2024
The biggest winner of the past week is Nevada. The Wolfpack were several spots out of the field to start the week but picked up their two best wins of the season against Utah State and San Diego State and have vaulted up to the 10 line. The Mountain West looks likely to follow up their 4 bid (and national championship game appearance) season last year with a 6 bid season this year.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee
2: Arizona, North Carolina, Kansas, Marquette
3: Baylor, Auburn, Alabama, Iowa State
4: Illinois, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Dayton
5: Duke, Creighton, Oklahoma, San Diego State
6: BYU, Florida Atlantic, Texas Tech, Utah State
7: Kentucky, Colorado State, Clemson, Utah
8: TCU, New Mexico, Ole Miss, Indiana State
9: Virginia, Northwestern, St. Mary’s, Texas
10: Nebraska, Michigan State, Nevada, Grand Canyon
11: Texas A&M, Washington State, Boise State, Providence
12: (Butler/Cincinnati), (St. John’s/Mississippi State), Princeton, Samford
13: McNeese State, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Kansas State, Florida, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Colorado, Oregon, Memphis, Princeton
Also Considered: Xavier, Villanova, Gonzaga, Richmond, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami (FL)
Moving In: Nevada
Moving Out: Florida
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
Bracketology 2/5/2024
The interesting action of the day was in the Big Ten. Purdue increased their stranglehold on the #1 overall seed with a big win at Wisconsin while Nebraska gave Illinois a real run for their money in Champaign. The Cornhuskers are yet to win a Big Ten road game but home wins over Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State are enough to have them safely in my projected field.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Kansas, Arizona, Marquette
3: Wisconsin, Alabama, Baylor, Dayton
4: Illinois, Auburn, Iowa State, South Carolina
5: Creighton, Duke, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State
6: BYU, Utah State, Texas Tech, Ole Miss
7: Oklahoma, Utah, Kentucky, TCU
8: New Mexico, Colorado State, Texas, Nebraska
9: Indiana State, Michigan State, St. Mary’s, Northwestern
10: Clemson, Grand Canyon, Washington State, Virginia
11: Boise State, St. John’s, Texas A&M, Butler
12: (Cincinnati/Florida), (Providence/Mississippi State), Princeton, McNeese State
13: Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Villanova, Colorado, Memphis, Nevada
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Kansas State, Princeton, Oregon
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Richmond, Syracuse, Wake Forest, NC State, Xavier, Georgia
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 9
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
Women’s Bracketology 2/4/2024
Now that the calendar has turned to February it is time for my first bracketology projection for this year’s women’s tournament. Unsurprisingly, the undefeated South Carolina Gamecocks occupy the #1 overall seed. After that, the field is a bit messy, with a half dozen other teams having solid cases for a 1 seed.
There’s a distinct west coast flavor to the top of the bracket with 4 Pac-12 teams and Gonzaga among the protected seeds. I don’t know if there will be enough room for both Stanford and UCLA on the 1 line at the end of the season, their matchup this afternoon will go a long ways to determining who holds that spot.
Men’s Bracketology 2/4/2024
It looks increasingly likely that we will have our first NCAA tournament without Gonzaga in my lifetime, as the ‘Zags lost at home to St. Mary’s last night and are running low on quality win opportunities. However, in a shocking twist, there will likely be a different team from eastern Washington in the field as Washington State continues to rattle off wins and is trending towards their first NCAA tournament since 2008.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin
3: Marquette, Alabama, Baylor, Dayton
4: Illinois, Auburn, Iowa State, South Carolina
5: Creighton, Duke, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State
6: BYU, Utah State, Texas Tech, Ole Miss
7: Oklahoma, Utah, Kentucky, TCU
8: Nebraska, New Mexico, Colorado State, Texas
9: Indiana State, Michigan State, St. Mary’s, Northwestern
10: Clemson, Providence, Grand Canyon, Washington State
11: Virginia, Boise State, St. John’s, Texas A&M
12: (Butler/Florida), (Cincinnati/Mississippi State), Princeton, McNeese State
13: Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Colorado, Memphis, Nevada, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Kansas State, Princeton, Villanova, Oregon
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Richmond, Syracuse, Wake Forest, NC State, Xavier, Georgia
Moving In: Virginia, Cincinnati
Moving Out: Colorado, Nevada
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 9
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
Bracketology 2/3/2024
I had dreams of a 2-bid Ivy League a few weeks ago but those have pretty much evaporated as Princeton dropped back to back road games against Cornell and Yale. Those three teams are all very solid, highlighting yet another banner year for Ivy hoops- I would not want to be the 4 or 5 seed that draws them in March.
1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Kansas, Wisconsin, Marquette
3: Arizona, Iowa State, Dayton, Alabama
4: Illinois, Duke, Auburn, Baylor
5: South Carolina, Creighton, Utah State, Texas Tech
6: Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, TCU, Ole Miss
7: BYU, Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State
8: Northwestern, Nebraska, Utah, New Mexico
9: Colorado State, Indiana State, St. John’s, Michigan State
10: Providence, Boise State, Texas, Grand Canyon
11: Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Washington State, Florida
12: (Butler/Colorado), (Texas A&M/Nevada), Princeton, McNeese State
13: Appalachian State, Samford, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Virginia, Syracuse, Oregon, Memphis
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Richmond, Kansas State
Also Considered: Princeton, Villanova, Cincinnati, Georgia, Drake, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Xavier
Moving In: Butler
Moving Out: Virginia
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
Bracketology 2/1/2024
South Carolina was the biggest winner of the week with their road win over Tennessee. The Gamecocks were on no one’s radar in the preseason but have leaped into the top 10 in strength of record after beating Kentucky and Tennessee in the last week.
1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Kansas, Marquette
3: Arizona, Iowa State, Dayton, Alabama
4: Illinois, Creighton, Duke, Auburn
5: Baylor, South Carolina, Utah State, Texas Tech
6: Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, TCU, Ole Miss
7: BYU, Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State
8: Northwestern, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado State
9: Indiana State, St. John’s, Nebraska, Michigan State
10: Providence, Boise State, Texas, St. Mary’s
11: Mississippi State, Grand Canyon, Washington State, Florida
12: Princeton, (Colorado/Texas A&M), (Nevada/Virginia), McNeese State
13: Appalachian State, Samford, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Syracuse, Oregon, Memphis, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Kansas State
Also Considered: Villanova, Cincinnati, Georgia, Drake, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Florida State, Xavier
Moving In: Florida, Virginia
Moving Out: Memphis, Syracuse
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 4
Bracketology 1/29/2024
For the first time in my 14 years of bracketology, I’m projecting Washington State to make the tournament. The Cougars have put together a few good seasons under HC Kyle Smith but look to have their best squad since Klay Thompson was in Pullman and beat both Utah and Colorado at home this week.
Elsewhere in the field, I dropped Villanova out of my projection. Villanova has some great wins but is now 11-9 and only has 1 win against a real team (no, DePaul does not count) since Christmas.
Bracketology 1/27/2024
I’m interested to see how many bids the Big 12 is able to get to the tournament this year. It’s been the best conference in college basketball for several years now, but the win/loss numbers are bound to get ugly for some bubble teams as 12 of the 14 teams in the league are top 70 teams. If we’re going to get a 14 or 15 loss team in the tournament this year, it’s likely to come from the Big 12.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Dayton
3: Marquette, Baylor, Arizona, Auburn
4: Kentucky, Illinois, Creighton, Alabama
5: Iowa State, Duke, Clemson, BYU
6: Colorado State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Utah State
7: San Diego State, South Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Nebraska
8: Memphis, St. John’s, Texas Tech, Colorado
9: Ole Miss, Utah, Villanova, Northwestern
10: Seton Hall, New Mexico, Grand Canyon, Princeton
11: Michigan State, TCU, Boise State, (Nevada/Cincinnati)
12: St. Mary’s, Indiana State, (Texas/Oregon), James Madison
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Youngstown State
16: Southern, Stetson, (South Dakota State/Colgate), (NC Central/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Washington State, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Misssissippi State
Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Georgia, James Madison
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Florida, Drake, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Butler, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Moving In: Nevada, Oregon
Moving Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
Big East: 6
Mountain West: 6
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/22/2024
The bubble is once again full of mediocre power conference teams- it doesn’t take much to play your way back into contention. One good example of this is Syracuse- the Orange have done very little all year but back to back wins over fellow mediocre teams Pitt and Miami have put them into my First Four Out. Elsewhere, the Big 12 is looking to make its case for double digit bids as this year’s supersized Big 12 remains one of the best conferences college hoops has ever seen.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Arizona, Auburn
3: Dayton, Kentucky, Marquette, Wisconsin
4: Illinois, Baylor, Creighton, Oklahoma
5: Colorado State, BYU, Iowa State, Duke
6: Clemson, Alabama, Texas A&M, Utah State
7: San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Texas Tech
8: Seton Hall, Nebraska, St. John’s, Utah
9: Villanova, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Michigan State
10: Colorado, Grand Canyon, Princeton, Cincinnati
11: Boise State, New Mexico, TCU, (Mississippi State/Ohio State)
12: St. Mary’s, (Kansas State/Northwestern), Indiana State, James Madison
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Oakland
16: Southern, Stetson, (Denver/Colgate), (NC Central/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Oregon, Texas, Nevada, Syracuse
Next Four Out: James Madison, Georgia, Miami (FL), Washington State
Also Considered: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Florida, Providence, NC State, Butler, San Francisco, SMU
Moving In: Boise State, Kansas State
Moving Out: Nevada, Oregon
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 3
Pac-12: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/20/2024
Over the course of the season we’re seeing a lot of teams that overperformed their predictive metrics regress a bit. Just this week, Memphis took a Q4 loss to South Florida while South Carolina and Ole Miss both lost to mediocre SEC teams. Now I’m waiting for the other side of the coin- teams like Xavier and Michigan State that have underperformed their per-possession stats picking up some wins.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Kansas, Houston
2: North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Auburn
3: Dayton, Baylor, Duke, Kentucky
4: Wisconsin, BYU, Marquette, Illinois
5: Alabama, Colorado State, San Diego State, Oklahoma
6: Clemson, Creighton, Utah State, Memphis
7: Florida Atlantic, Seton Hall, Iowa State, St. John’s
8: Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Villanova
9: Colorado, Cincinnati, Nebraska, South Carolina
10: Texas Tech, Utah, Princeton, Nevada
11: TCU, New Mexico, Northwestern, (Michigan State/Oregon)
12: (Mississippi State/Ohio State), Indiana State, James Madison, St. Mary’s
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Oakland
16: Southern, Stetson, (Colgate/NC Central), (Denver/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Indiana State, Miami (FL), Boise State, Washington State
Next Four Out: James Madison, St. Mary’s, Georgia, Kansas State
Also Considered: NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, San Francisco, Providence, Texas, Butler
Moving In: New Mexico, Ohio State
Moving Out: Miami (FL), Boise State
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/16/2024
There’s been a lot of turmoil at the top of the bracket as nearly half of my protected seeds have lost in the last week. This has faulted Connecticut up to a 1 seed while Arizona falls down to the 2 line. There are so few quality win opportunities in the Pac-12 this year that Arizona may have a hard time climbing back up to the 1 line.
Elsewhere, I dropped Gonzaga out of the bracket for St. Mary’s after the Gaels’ impressive road win at Santa Clara. Neither team has an at-large quality resume right now, and this looks like the first 1 bid WCC since 2018.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Kansas, Houston
2: North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Baylor
3: Tennessee, Dayton, Auburn, Clemson
4: Duke, Marquette, Kentucky, Memphis
5: Creighton, Alabama, BYU, Utah State
6: Colorado State, Oklahoma, San Diego State, Illinois
7: Iowa State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, St. John’s
8: Florida Atlantic, Texas A&M, Grand Canyon, Nebraska
9: Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Villanova, Utah
10: TCU, Nevada, Princeton, Colorado
11: Miami (FL), Oregon, Cincinnati, (Mississippi State/Northwestern)
12: (Michigan State/Boise State), Indiana State, James Madison, St. Mary’s
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Morehead State, Western Kentucky, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Oakland
16: Southern, Stetson, (Colgate/NC Central), (Denver/Merrimack)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Indiana State, Ohio State, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: James Madison, Texas, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga
Also Considered: Indiana, Butler, Washington State, Providence, Florida, San Francisco, NC State, Syracuse
Moving In: Miami (FL), TCU, Boise State, St. Mary’s
Moving Out: Texas, Ohio State, Providence, Gonzaga
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/12/2024
Michigan State is going to present a very interesting decision for the committee this year. The Spartans rank 26th in the NET and 17th in Kenpom but are 9-7 with only a single Q1 win over Baylor. There’s no precedent for a team with a NET in the 20s getting left out, but the Big Ten is light on quality win opportunities this year and the Spartans will have to start winning games if they want to make the tournament.
1: Purdue, Houston, Arizona, Connecticut
2: North Carolina, Kansas, Wisconsin, Baylor
3: Tennessee, Kentucky, Dayton, San Diego State
4: Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Illinois
5: Oklahoma, Colorado State, Marquette, Creighton
6: Memphis, BYU, Utah State, St. John’s
7: Iowa State, Alabama, Nebraska, Utah
8: Ole Miss, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida Atlantic
9: Villanova, Grand Canyon, Cincinnati, Mississippi State
10: Texas Tech, Princeton, Oregon, Texas A&M
11: Seton Hall, James Madison, Northwestern, Colorado
12: (Texas/Michigan State), (Ohio State/Providence), Indiana State, Gonzaga
13: McNeese State, Charleston, Samford, Purdue Fort Wayne
14: Morehead State, UC Irvine, Liberty, Weber State
15: Akron, High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont
16: Southern, Stetson, (Colgate/Norfolk State), (Denver/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Miami (FL), Butler, Indiana State, TCU
Next Four Out: Gonzaga, Virginia, Boise State, Wake Forest
Also Considered: New Mexico, Indiana, Florida, San Francisco, NC State, Kansas State, Syracuse, Georgia
Moving In: Northwestern, Texas
Moving Out: Miami (FL), Wake Forest
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/7/2024
The first full week of conference play is in the books and it has led to significant movement throughout the seed list. Many power conference teams that played lackluster non-conference schedules are facing their first real tests of the season. Some of these teams, like South Carolina and Cincinnati, have pulled off big wins to cement their place in the field. For others, like Texas and TCU, losses have taken them out of my projected bracket.
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 2
Bracketology 12/31/2023
As the calendar turns to 2024, conference play begins in earnest. We have a bit of an interesting distribution of bids this year with only 4 ACC teams and 3 Pac-12 teams in the field. As of right now a majority of at-large bids are going to the SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 and it will be hard for other conferences to break in given how well those leagues did in non-conference play.
1: Purdue, Houston, Arizona, Kansas
2: Clemson, Marquette, Connecticut, BYU
3: Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina, Oklahoma
4: Colorado State, San Diego State, Utah, Illinois
5: Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, Auburn, Wisconsin
6: Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, New Mexico
7: James Madison, Dayton, Ohio State, Providence
8: Creighton, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Alabama
9: Texas A&M, Colorado, South Carolina, Texas
10: Nevada, Miami (FL), Villanova, Princeton
11: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Michigan State
12: Florida, Indiana State, (Texas Tech/Cincinnati), (Northwestern/Utah State)
13: UC Irvine, Liberty, McNeese State, Weber State
14: Samford, Akron, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
15: Purdue Fort Wayne, Morehead State, Lipscomb, Longwood
16: Colgate, Denver, (Norfolk State/Quinnipiac), (Southern/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Syracuse, Kansas State, St. John’s, Butler
Next Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Wake Forest
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 5
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 12/20/2023
One of the better developments in college basketball in recent years has been the increase in meaningful games in December. Good teams are playing a much stronger out of conference slate than they did a decade ago and it’s led to a much better December schedule than the dregs we used to see.
The biggest riser since my last update is Memphis, who has rattled off three wins in a row against Texas A&M, Clemson and Virginia. The AAC is weird this year in that Florida Atlantic and Memphis look like top 4 seeds and the rest of the conference is really bad, with most teams outside the top 100.
The schedule slows down a lot around the holidays and I’ll be back with another update around New Year’s.
1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Arizona
2: Kansas, BYU, Oklahoma, Tennessee
3: Florida Atlantic, Marquette, Memphis, Colorado State
4: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Creighton, Baylor
5: Clemson, Illinois, Auburn, Kentucky
6: Gonzaga, Alabama, San Diego State, Utah
7: Ole Miss, James Madison, Ohio State, Duke
8: New Mexico, Virginia, Texas, Texas A&M
9: Providence, Mississippi State, Colorado, Iowa State
10: Miami (FL), Nebraska, South Carolina, Princeton
11: Nevada, Florida, Villanova, Indiana State
12: Dayton, (Texas Tech/Cincinnati), (Kansas State/Michigan State), Grand Canyon
13: UNC Greensboro, Louisiana Tech, Hawai’i, Purdue Fort Wayne
14: McNeese State, UNC Wilmington, Akron, Weber State
15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Longwood, Colgate
16: Lipscomb, Morehead State, (Marist/Norfolk State), (Prairie View A&M/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Utah State, TCU, Indiana, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Butler, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Wake Forest
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 5
Big East: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 12/11/2023
The Big 12 has increased its dominance as the best conference in college basketball. Right now the league has 9 of its 14 teams in the bracket including 4 teams as a 3 seed or better. It will only get better next year, as 3 of the 4 teams the league is adding (Arizona, Colorado and Utah) are in the bracket. The most dominant conference of my lifetime is probably the Big East of the late 2000s and the Big 12 of the 2020s projects to be even better.
1: Purdue, Arizona, Houston, Kansas
2: Connecticut, Marquette, Clemson, Creighton
3: Baylor, North Carolina, BYU, Oklahoma
4: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State
5: Wisconsin, Alabama, Illinois, Virginia
6: Auburn, San Diego State, Memphis, Utah
7: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, James Madison
8: Northwestern, Duke, New Mexico, Texas
9: Colorado, Ohio State, Iowa State, Mississippi State
10: Miami (FL), Kansas State, Cincinnati, Nebraska
11: South Carolina, Princeton, Villanova, Indiana State
12: (Nevada/Providence), (Indiana/Florida), Dayton, Grand Canyon
13: UNC Greensboro, Louisiana Tech, Hawai’i, Purdue Fort Wayne
14: McNeese State, UNC Wilmington, Akron, Weber State
15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Longwood, Colgate
16: Lipscomb, Morehead State, (Marist/Norfolk State), (Prairie View A&M/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Texas Tech, Oregon, Washington State, Michigan State
Next Four Out: TCU, Dayton, UCLA, Washington
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 5
Big East: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 11/28/2023
With most of the preseason tournaments out of the way, it’s time for my bracketology update for the month of November. 3 of my 1 seeds (Purdue, Connecticut and Houston) remain from my preseason bracket, with Arizona joining them on the top line after wins over Duke and Michigan State. They’re joined in the protected seeds by some surprise undefeated teams like BYU and Mississippi State.
My next update will likely be in around two weeks, weekly updates will begin after New Year’s.
1: Purdue, Arizona, Connecticut, Houston
2: Marquette, Kansas, Baylor, Texas A&M
3: Gonzaga, BYU, Villanova, Mississippi State
4: North Carolina, Alabama, Duke, Tennessee
5: Florida Atlantic, Creighton, San Diego State, Kentucky
6: Colorado State, Memphis, Miami (FL), Auburn
7: Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, USC
8: James Madison, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Texas
9: Nevada, Texas Tech, Illinois, TCU
10: Clemson, Princeton, Colorado, Florida
11: Bradley, Virginia, Cincinnati, UCLA
12: (Indiana/Providence), (Northwestern/Pittsburgh), Liberty, Dayton
13: UC Irvine, Grand Canyon, UNC Greensboro, Ohio
14: UMass Lowell, McNeese State, Oakland, South Dakota State
15: UNC Wilmingon, Portland State, Stetson, Colgate
16: Longwood, Morehead State, (Canisius/Sacred Heart), (Howard/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Iowa, New Mexico, Florida State, Oregon
Next Four Out: NC State, South Carolina, Butler, Kansas State
2023-24 Preseason Bracketology
It may still be October, but the college basketball season is less than a week away. That means it’s preseason bracketology time. The preseason bracket is a bit of a crapshoot- we have a pretty good idea as to who the top 20 or so teams are, but after the first few seed lines things will change a lot between now and March.
Here are some stats on last year’s preseason bracket to give you a guide as to what to expect this year:
-Of my top 16 teams (1-4 seeds) in the preseason last year, 15 of them made the tournament. North Carolina was the only exception. 10 of the 16 ultimately received top 4 seeds and the other 5 received top 8 seeds.
-Of my remaining at-large teams (5-11 seeds) in the preseason last year, around half (15/31) ended up making the tournament.
-Almost every team that got a high seed was on my preseason radar. All the teams that ended up as top 6 seeds were in my preseason bracket except Marquette (2 seed), Kansas State (3 seed), St. Mary’s (5 seed) and Iowa State (6 seed).
With that preamble out of the way, here are my preseason projections. My next update will come in late November, likely after the Thanksgiving tournaments.
Final 2023 Men’s Bracketology
Welcome to Selection Sunday! This wraps up my 13th season as a bracketologist and every season is as enjoyable as the last. As always, I owe a big thank you to the Bracket Matrix for their tireless work in compiling various bracketologies- it is a tremendous amount of work and an amazing resource for the whole community.
I think that the last 3 spots in the tournament are up for serious debate, the bubble is less “clean” this year than it has been in the past. Here’s how I see the cut line this year.
Bubble Teams In the Field
Any team I have in the field who is not on this list as at least a 98% chance of making the tournament.
Providence: 41st overall, 95% chance of selection. The Friars slid late but their trio of home wins against Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton should get them over the line.
NC State: 42nd overall, 85% chance of selection. The Wolfpack have a very bland profile with nothing great or horrible on it. A win against Duke is probably the difference between the NCAA and the NIT.
Mississippi State: 43rd overall, 85% chance of selection. The Bulldogs have another very middling profile. Strong non conference wins over Marquette and TCU should make the difference.
Arizona State: 44th overall, 80% chance of selection. The Sun Devils were on the outside of my field for most of the season but a huge win at Arizona got them into the field and is the cornerstone of their resume.
Rutgers: 45th overall, 75% chance of selection. For the second year in a row the Scarlet Knights possess a confounding resume. They have an amazing road win at Purdue but also a 2-4 record in Q3. I think they’ve done just enough.
Nevada: 46th overall, 55% chance of selection. Nevada was cruising to an 8/9 game for most of the season before an 0-3 finish put them in trouble. I very marginally favor them over Pittsburgh for the last spot.
Bubble Teams Out of the Field
Any team I have out of the field who is not on this list as a less than 2% chance of making the tournament.
Pittsburgh: 47th overall, 50% chance of selection. The Panthers have a few good wins but the 2023 ACC is full of landmines and they fell for two of them in losses to horrible Notre Dame and Florida State teams.
Oklahoma State: 48th overall, 40% chance of selection. The Cowboys are a classic high loss count bubble team. They’ve done nothing objectionable on their way to an 18-15 record but needed more top tier wins given the number of opportunities they had.
Vanderbilt: 49th overall, 20% chance of selection. Every year we have a bubble team come out of nowhere to enter the conversation. Vanderbilt was not even on the NIT bubble a month ago, but I don’t think their late charge was enough to make the NCAAs.
North Carolina: 50th overall, 5% chance of selection. Much has been written about the disaster that is the 2022-23 Tar Heels. They had chances, such as a 4OT loss to Alabama, but didn’t convert enough of them.
Clemson: 51st overall, 5% chance of selection. The Tigers’ losses to South Carolina and Loyola Chicago will prove too much to overcome.
Final Bracket Projection
Final Seed List
1: Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
2: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette
3: Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas State, Connecticut
4: Xavier, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia
5: San Diego State, Duke, Iowa State, Texas A&M
6: Miami (FL), St. Mary’s, TCU, Missouri
7: Kentucky, Northwestern, Michigan State, Creighton
8: Florida Atlantic, Memphis, West Virginia, Maryland
9: Iowa, Arkansas, Penn State, Auburn
10: USC, Utah State, Illinois, Boise State
11: Providence, NC State, (Mississippi State/Arizona State), (Rutgers/Nevada)
12: Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, VCU
13: Kent State, Louisiana, Iona, Furman
14: Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Princeton, Grand Canyon
15: Montana State, Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
16: Northern Kentucky, Howard, (Texas A&M CC/SE Missouri State), (Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson)
First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, North Carolina
Next Four Out: Clemson, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Texas
Moving In: Princeton
Moving Out: Yale
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
SEC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 2
West Coast: 2
Final 2023 Women’s Bracketology
For the first time this year I decided to take a stab at bracketology for the NCAA women’s tournament. Men’s and women’s bracketology is a bit of a different game- a lot of the team sheet metrics that I’m used to using (SOR, predictive metrics etc.) aren’t available for the women’s tournament so I relied more on quadrant records to make this projection.
I’m much less confident in these projections than I am in my men’s bracketology as I haven’t been following along all season, but I’m curious to see how well they do. There are some interesting teams to seed here, most notably some very strong mid-majors like Columbia, UNLV and Florida Gulf Coast.
1: South Carolina, Indiana, Connecticut, Stanford
2: Virginia Tech, Iowa, LSU, Utah
3: Maryland, Duke, Notre Dame, Villanova
4: Ohio State, UCLA, Texas, North Carolina
5: Iowa State, Colorado, Washington State, Creighton
6: Florida State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, South Florida
7: Michigan, NC State, UNLV, Louisville
8: USC, Middle Tennessee, Arizona, Gonzaga
9: Baylor, Ole Miss, Columbia, Alabama
10: South Dakota State, Illinois, Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette
11: St. John’s, Oregon, Princeton, (Georgia/Miami (FL))
12: (Purdue/Oklahoma State), Drake, Toledo, Cleveland State
13: East Carolina, Portland, Sacramento State, Gardner-Webb
14: James Madison, Saint Louis, Southern Utah, Vermont
15: Iona, Holy Cross, Southeastern Louisiana, Norfolk State
16: Hawai’i, Chattanooga, (Monmouth/Tennessee Tech), (Southern/Sacred Heart)
First Four Out: Massachusetts, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Rhode Island
Next Four Out: Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State, Syracuse
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 8
Pac-12: 8
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Big East: 5
American: 2
Ivy League: 2
West Coast: 2