Final 2023 Men’s Bracketology
Welcome to Selection Sunday! This wraps up my 13th season as a bracketologist and every season is as enjoyable as the last. As always, I owe a big thank you to the Bracket Matrix for their tireless work in compiling various bracketologies- it is a tremendous amount of work and an amazing resource for the whole community.
I think that the last 3 spots in the tournament are up for serious debate, the bubble is less “clean” this year than it has been in the past. Here’s how I see the cut line this year.
Bubble Teams In the Field
Any team I have in the field who is not on this list as at least a 98% chance of making the tournament.
Providence: 41st overall, 95% chance of selection. The Friars slid late but their trio of home wins against Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton should get them over the line.
NC State: 42nd overall, 85% chance of selection. The Wolfpack have a very bland profile with nothing great or horrible on it. A win against Duke is probably the difference between the NCAA and the NIT.
Mississippi State: 43rd overall, 85% chance of selection. The Bulldogs have another very middling profile. Strong non conference wins over Marquette and TCU should make the difference.
Arizona State: 44th overall, 80% chance of selection. The Sun Devils were on the outside of my field for most of the season but a huge win at Arizona got them into the field and is the cornerstone of their resume.
Rutgers: 45th overall, 75% chance of selection. For the second year in a row the Scarlet Knights possess a confounding resume. They have an amazing road win at Purdue but also a 2-4 record in Q3. I think they’ve done just enough.
Nevada: 46th overall, 55% chance of selection. Nevada was cruising to an 8/9 game for most of the season before an 0-3 finish put them in trouble. I very marginally favor them over Pittsburgh for the last spot.
Bubble Teams Out of the Field
Any team I have out of the field who is not on this list as a less than 2% chance of making the tournament.
Pittsburgh: 47th overall, 50% chance of selection. The Panthers have a few good wins but the 2023 ACC is full of landmines and they fell for two of them in losses to horrible Notre Dame and Florida State teams.
Oklahoma State: 48th overall, 40% chance of selection. The Cowboys are a classic high loss count bubble team. They’ve done nothing objectionable on their way to an 18-15 record but needed more top tier wins given the number of opportunities they had.
Vanderbilt: 49th overall, 20% chance of selection. Every year we have a bubble team come out of nowhere to enter the conversation. Vanderbilt was not even on the NIT bubble a month ago, but I don’t think their late charge was enough to make the NCAAs.
North Carolina: 50th overall, 5% chance of selection. Much has been written about the disaster that is the 2022-23 Tar Heels. They had chances, such as a 4OT loss to Alabama, but didn’t convert enough of them.
Clemson: 51st overall, 5% chance of selection. The Tigers’ losses to South Carolina and Loyola Chicago will prove too much to overcome.
Final Bracket Projection
Final Seed List
1: Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
2: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette
3: Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas State, Connecticut
4: Xavier, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia
5: San Diego State, Duke, Iowa State, Texas A&M
6: Miami (FL), St. Mary’s, TCU, Missouri
7: Kentucky, Northwestern, Michigan State, Creighton
8: Florida Atlantic, Memphis, West Virginia, Maryland
9: Iowa, Arkansas, Penn State, Auburn
10: USC, Utah State, Illinois, Boise State
11: Providence, NC State, (Mississippi State/Arizona State), (Rutgers/Nevada)
12: Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, VCU
13: Kent State, Louisiana, Iona, Furman
14: Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Princeton, Grand Canyon
15: Montana State, Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
16: Northern Kentucky, Howard, (Texas A&M CC/SE Missouri State), (Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson)
First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, North Carolina
Next Four Out: Clemson, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Texas
Moving In: Princeton
Moving Out: Yale
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
SEC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 2
West Coast: 2