Bracketology 2/6/2023

The best game of the weekend was St. Mary’s beating Gonzaga in overtime, cementing their place at the top of the WCC this year. The Gaels were looking shaky after a 6-3 start but now have top 10 computer metrics everywhere and after a 12 game winning streak they enter the protected seeds for the first time all year.

There are always a few teams whose resume looks a lot better than their computer numbers do. Often these teams fall off in the second half of the season and we’re seeing it here- Missouri has slid from a 5 seed to an 11 seed in recent weeks and Arizona State is almost totally out of the tournament picture.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Houston, Arizona

2: Kansas, Texas, Tennessee, UCLA

3: Baylor, Iowa State, Xavier, Marquette

4: Kansas State, St. Mary’s, Virginia, Miami (FL)

5: Indiana, TCU, Rutgers, Connecticut

6: Gonzaga, Duke, Iowa, San Diego State

7: Auburn, NC State, Illinois, Providence

8: New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, North Carolina

9: Michigan State, Kentucky, Creighton, West Virginia

10: Maryland, Nevada, USC, Boise State

11: Utah State, Oklahoma State, (Northwestern/Pittsburgh), (Missouri/Clemson)

12: VCU, Charleston, Oral Roberts, Akron

13: Southern Miss, Utah Valley, UC Santa Barbara, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Princeton, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Memphis, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State

Also Considered: VCU, Oregon, Michigan, North Texas, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Charleston

Bracketology 2/4/2023

It was a bad week for mid major at-large hopefuls with Florida Atlantic and Charleston both picking up losses. Charleston probably needs to make it to the CAA tournament without another loss to have a chance, Florida Atlantic has the benefit of a stronger schedule in CUSA and has more wiggle room.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston

2: Arizona, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA

3: Baylor, Kansas State, Xavier, Virginia

4: Marquette, TCU, Iowa State, Gonzaga

5: Connecticut, Auburn, St. Mary’s, Rutgers

6: San Diego State, Miami (FL), Illinois, Indiana

7: NC State, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina

8: Providence, New Mexico, Iowa, Arkansas

9: Florida Atlantic, Creighton, Missouri, Maryland

10: Memphis, Nevada, USC, Kentucky

11: Clemson, West Virginia, (Pittsburgh/Boise State), (Utah State/Wisconsin)

12: Charleston, VCU, Oral Roberts, Akron

13: Sam Houston State, Southern Miss, UC Santa Barbara, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Cornell, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Florida, Northwestern, Penn State, Oklahoma State

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Arizona State, VCU

Also Considered: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, North Texas, Wake Forest, Charleston, Oregon, Michigan

Bracketology 1/30/2023

A busy weekend of college hoops was highlighted by the Big 12/SEC challenge. The biggest winner of the event was Oklahoma, who demolished Alabama to snap a 3 game losing skid. The Sooners are the first team out of my bracket today, their predictive metrics are quite good but their Kenpom projection of 16-15 will not cut it to make the field.

Every so often I like to go through and rebuild my seed list from scratch, taking a look at every team’s resume with fresh eyes. I went through this process this morning and it led to teams like Connecticut and Florida Atlantic rising up the seed list.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Tennessee

2: Houston, Arizona, Kansas State, Texas

3: Baylor, UCLA, Iowa State, Virginia

4: Marquette, Xavier, Gonzaga, Connecticut

5: TCU, Auburn, Indiana, St. Mary’s

6: San Diego State, Rutgers, Illinois, Miami (FL)

7: NC State, New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Providence

8: Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke, Missouri

9: Memphis, Creighton, Clemson, USC

10: Iowa, Northwestern, Boise State, Arkansas

11: Nevada, West Virginia, (Maryland/Kentucky), (Texas A&M/Pittsburgh)

12: Charleston, Saint Louis, Kent State, Oral Roberts

13: Sam Houston State, UC Santa Barbara, Southern Miss, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Cornell, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Oklahoma, Charleston, Penn State, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: Wisconsin, Arizona State, Utah State, Ohio State

Also Considered: Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Saint Louis, Mississippi State, Florida, North Texas, Utah

Bracketology 1/27/2022

Kansas has now dropped three games in a row which has taken them from the #1 overall seed to a 2 seed. The Jayhawks have every opportunity to get back to the 1 line, but if they finish 6-4 as Kenpom suggests they won’t get there.

When Skyy Clark left the team at the beginning of January, I thought there was a good chance that Illinois might miss the tournament. They’re 5-1 since then but yet to pick up a Q1 win during that span- they have a good opportunity for one this weekend against a sliding Wisconsin team.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Houston, Tennessee

2: Kansas, Arizona, Texas, UCLA

3: Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, Marquette

4: Xavier, Virginia, TCU, Gonzaga

5: Auburn, Miami (FL), San Diego State, North Carolina

6: Rutgers, St. Mary’s, Indiana, Connecticut

7: Providence, Michigan State, Arkansas, Duke

8: Illinois, Florida Atlantic, NC State, New Mexico

9: Missouri, Boise State, Charleston, Creighton

10: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Clemson

11: Maryland, USC, Nevada, (Iowa/West Virginia)

12: (Pittsburgh/Utah State), Oral Roberts, Iona, Kent State

13: VCU, Liberty, UC Santa Barbara, Southern Miss

14: Utah Valley, Drake, Princeton, Vermont

15: Colgate, Milwaukee, Furman, Norfolk State

16: Longwood, Eastern Washington, (Grambling State/Nicholls State), (Southeast Missouri State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Ohio State, Mississippi State, Memphis, Penn State

Next Four Out: Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Bracketology 1/23/2023

I thought Houston stood a decent chance of finishing the season undefeated in conference play. They would’ve been a contender for the #1 overall seed had they been able to do that, but instead they lost a shocking game at home to Temple. I’ve kept them on the top line for now, but that’s mainly because the other contenders for the last 1 seed haven’t been great lately.

It’s a banner year in the Mountain West with 5 teams in my projection right now. I think at least one of Nevada and Utah State will drop out, but San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico look reasonably safe.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston

2: Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA, Kansas State

3: Texas, Marquette, Virginia, Baylor

4: Iowa State, TCU, Xavier, Gonzaga

5: Auburn, Connecticut, San Diego State, St. Mary’s

6: Miami (FL), Indiana, Duke, Providence

7: North Carolina, Rutgers, Arkansas, New Mexico

8: Florida Atlantic, NC State, Michigan State, Wisconsin

9: Missouri, Boise State, Illinois, Charleston

10: Creighton, Kentucky, Iowa, Clemson

11: Maryland, Utah State, Nevada, (West Virginia/Northwestern)

12: (Arizona State/Ohio State), Kent State, Oral Roberts, Iona

13: VCU, Liberty, Marshall, UC Irvine

14: Utah Valley, Drake, Princeton, UMass Lowell

15: Colgate, Milwaukee, Furman, Norfolk State

16: Longwood, Eastern Washington, (Grambling State/SIU Edwardsville), (Nicholls State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, USC, Penn State, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Memphis, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

Bracketology 1/21/2023

It’s difficult to overstate just how strong the Big 12 is this year. The league has a whopping 6 teams as top 6 seeds in this update, which is nearly unprecedented. Kansas was the victim of the league’s strength this week when they fell to Kansas State in Manhattan, bumping them off the top overall spot.

The Big 12’s strength comes at the expense of some of the other power conferences. The Pac-12 is notably week- UCLA and Arizona are both stone cold locks and Arizona State will probably make the tournament. Then there’s a mediocre USC team and a long way down after that.

1: Purdue, Kansas, Houston, Alabama

2: UCLA, Arizona, Tennessee, Kansas State

3: Iowa State, Texas, Marquette, Virginia

4: Baylor, Xavier, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)

5: Auburn, Connecticut, San Diego State, St. Mary’s

6: TCU, Providence, Rutgers, Arkansas

7: New Mexico, Indiana, NC State, Duke

8: Michigan State, Florida Atlantic, Missouri, North Carolina

9: Wisconsin, Boise State, West Virginia, Illinois

10: Iowa, Charleston, Creighton, Kentucky

11: Maryland, Arizona State, Utah State, (Nevada/Clemson)

12: (Mississippi State/Northwestern), Kent State, Oral Roberts, Iona

13: Dayton, Liberty, Marshall, UC Irvine

14: Utah Valley, Drake, Princeton, UMass Lowell

15: Colgate, Milwaukee, Furman, Norfolk State

16: Longwood, SIU Edwardsville, (Eastern Washington/Grambling State), (Texas A&M CC/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Penn State, USC

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Memphis, Wake Forest

Bracketology 1/16/2023

Tons of movement up and down the seed list since my last update. Our two unlikely mid-major at-large hopefuls (Florida Atlantic and Charleston) keep on winning and are buying themselves valuable breathing room from the cut line. At the top of the bracket, UConn has hit a rough patch and is out of the 1 seed conversation. Meanwhile, UCLA hasn’t lost a game since Thanksgiving and is nearly up to the top line.

1: Kansas, Purdue, Houston, Alabama

2: UCLA, Arizona, Texas, Xavier

3: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Virginia

4: Marquette, Kansas State, Iowa State, Miami (FL)

5: Auburn, Baylor, TCU, Arkansas

6: Providence, Rutgers, San Diego State, St. Mary’s

7: Indiana, NC State, Boise State, Duke

8: North Carolina, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, Michigan State

9: Illinois, Arizona State, Missouri, Charleston

10: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia

11: Creighton, Clemson, Nevada, (Ohio State/Utah State)

12: (Mississippi State/Maryland), Kent State, Oral Roberts, Iona

13: Dayton, Marshall, UC Irvine, Utah Valley

14: Florida Gulf Coast, Drake, Princeton, American

15: UMass Lowell, SIU Edwardsville, Milwaukee, Furman

16: Norfolk State, Longwood, (Eastern Washington/Bryant), (Grambling State/Texas A&M CC)

First Four Out: Northwestern, Iowa, USC, Oklahoma

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Penn State, Memphis, Pittsburgh

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 4

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 1/9/2023

Conference play is now underway and we have a pretty unusual group of suspects at the top of the seed list. Of my top eight teams, only 2 (Kansas and Arizona) have received a 1 seed in the last decade. It is nice to see some new teams at the top but it is a bit weird to see Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky languishing in the middle of the seed list.

The balance of power in the middle conferences of the sport is a bit weird this year as well. The Atlantic 10 is having their worst year in memory with no teams in at-large contention and its leader (Dayton) all the way down on the 14 line. The Mountain West is picking up the slack with a whopping 5 teams in this update.

1: Kansas, Purdue, Houston, Connecticut

2: Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee, UCLA

3: Texas, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Arkansas

4: Iowa State, Xavier, Miami (FL), San Diego State

5: Virginia, Marquette, Missouri, Duke

6: Ohio State, TCU, North Carolina, Auburn

7: Providence, NC State, Indiana, Boise State

8: West Virginia, St. Mary’s, Wisconsin, Baylor

9: Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Rutgers, Mississippi State

10: Nevada, Michigan State, New Mexico, Utah State

11: Arizona State, Charleston, Northwestern, (Creighton/Virginia Tech)

12: (Maryland/UNLV), Sam Houston State, Iona, Oral Roberts

13: Kent State, UMass Lowell, Southern Miss, UC Santa Barbara

14: Dayton, Florida Gulf Coast, Drake, Princeton

15: American, Norfolk State, SIU Edwardsville, Milwaukee

16: Furman, Longwood, (Eastern Washington/Bryant), (Grambling State/Texas A&M CC)

First Four Out: Clemson, Memphis, UCF, Utah

Next Four Out: Penn State, Illinois, USC, Pittsburgh

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 5

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 12/27/2022

It’s been a month since my last update as I’ve been busy with NFL season and the World Cup. In that time, Connecticut has flown up the seed list and looks to be in line for their first 1 seed since Hasheem Thabeet and Kemba Walker were playing for the Huskies. We have a bit of a weird dynamic where two of the 1 seeds (Connecticut and Houston) play in conferences with only a few bids while others (Purdue and Kansas) will get plenty of quality win opportunities.

It’s shaping up to be an interesting year for mid-majors on the bubble. Charleston and Florida Atlantic haven’t sniffed an at-large in the 13 years I’ve been doing this, but both are off to great starts. Some of our usual suspects like the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley are quite weak this year- instead we have a bumper crop of contenders from the Mountain West and Conference USA.

1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, Kansas

2: Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee, UCLA

3: Arkansas, Gonzaga, Texas, Baylor

4: West Virginia, Duke, Virginia, Indiana

5: Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Maryland

6: Ohio State, North Carolina, Kansas State, Auburn

7: New Mexico, TCU, Miami (FL), Wisconsin

8: Xavier, Memphis, San Diego State, Missouri

9: Arizona State, St. Mary’s, Illinois, Iowa State

10: UNLV, Marquette, Charleston, Northwestern

11: Florida Atlantic, Utah State, Penn State, (Oklahoma/NC State)

12: (UAB/Michigan State), Sam Houston State, Kent State, Iona

13: Yale, Oral Roberts, Dayton, Marshall

14: Liberty, Drake, Furman, UC Santa Barbara

15: UMass Lowell, Colgate, Youngstown State, Montana State

16: Longwood, SIU Edwardsville, (Norfolk State/Texas A&M CC), (Grambling State/Wagner)

First Four Out: Texas Tech, Rutgers, Creighton, LSU

Next Four Out: USC, Utah, Iowa, Clemson

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Mountain West: 4

Big East: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

Conference USA: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 11/28/2022

Feast Week is in the books and we’ve seen a lot of shakeups at the top of the bracket. None of my 4 preseason #1 seeds (Gonzaga, North Carolina, Baylor and Kentucky) remain on the top line. North Carolina has some legitimate problems to sort out but the other 3 teams will likely be protected seeds come Selection Sunday.

I debated a bit about who to put in the top overall spot, ultimately I went with Purdue. Their computer numbers are not as good as some of the other contenders but they clearly have the best wins so far.

My next update will come in around two weeks or so, the volume of big games will die down for a bit before picking back up around New Years’.

1: Purdue, Houston, Arizona, Texas

2: Connecticut, Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee

3: Creighton, Kansas, Baylor, Kentucky

4: Indiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn

5: UCLA, Maryland, Duke, Illinois

6: Mississippi State, Michigan State, West Virginia, San Diego State

7: Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio State, Kansas State

8: Utah State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Memphis

9: St. Mary’s, Texas Tech, Penn State, Wisconsin

10: Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami, Ole Miss

11: St. John’s, Drake, (Northwestern/LSU), (Arizona State/Missouri)

12: UAB, Saint Louis, Sam Houston State, James Madison

13: Kent State, Furman, UC Irvine, Iona

14: Towson, Liberty, Yale, Colgate

15: Oral Roberts, Montana State, UMass Lowell, Youngstown State

16: Longwood, Texas A&M CC, (Norfolk State/SIU Edwardsville), (Wagner/Southern)

First Four Out: New Mexico, TCU, Michigan, Marquette

Next Four Out: Rutgers, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Xavier

2022-23 Preseason Bracketology

It’s snuck up on me, but college basketball season starts tomorrow. It’s a bit of a weird opening to the season this year as there’s very few marquee games in the first week. The Champions Classic is not until the 15th and then Feast Week kicks off the week after that. I’m pretty busy with college football at this time of year so I probably won’t post another update until after Thanksgiving weekend, we’ll probably have a clearer sense of where everyone stands.

1: Gonzaga, North Carolina, Baylor, Kentucky

2: Houston, Texas, Tennessee, Kansas

3: Duke, UCLA, Indiana, Arkansas

4: TCU, San Diego State, Virginia, Arizona

5: Villanova, Illinois, Creighton, Auburn

6: Virginia Tech, Xavier, Oregon, Purdue

7: Michigan, Michigan State, Dayton, Texas A&M

8: Memphis, Texas Tech, Alabama, Oklahoma

9: Miami (FL), Iowa, Oklahoma State, Connecticut

10: Saint Louis, USC, St. John’s, Florida

11: Memphis, Florida State, (Wyoming/West Virginia), (Stanford/Tulane)

12: UAB, Furman, Drake, Liberty

13: Toledo, Grand Canyon, Towson, Vermont

14: UC Santa Barbara, Colgate, Iona, Oral Roberts

15: James Madison, Princeton, Northern Kentucky, Longwood

16: Norfolk State, Montana State, (Texas A&M Corpus Christi/Morehead State), (Texas Southern/Wagner)

First Four Out: Missouri, Ohio State, Rutgers, St. Mary’s

Next Four Out: BYU, Syracuse, Kansas State, Loyola Chicago

Bracketology 3/13/2022 PM

The selection show is now only hours away, and this is my final bracket projection of the season.

We had one big shakeup in today’s action. Richmond’s win over Davidson puts the Spiders into the tournament and takes a spot from the at-large pool. I think SMU is the casualty of Richmond’s win.

I feel pretty decent about my first 66 teams in the bracket but much worse about the last two spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of my first 5 teams out of the field in the tournament.

We do have one interesting quirk in my final bracket projection. Since 3 of my last 4 teams in (Michigan, Indiana and Rutgers) are from the Big Ten, I have Michigan and Indiana playing in the First Four in Dayton. The committee explicitly allows a conference matchup in the First Four if at least three of the teams are from the same conference.

1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2: Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Villanova

3: Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

4: Illinois, UCLA, Arkansas, Providence

5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Iowa

6: Colorado State, USC, Texas, Alabama

7: LSU, Michigan State, Murray State, Boise State

8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State

9: Marquette, TCU, North Carolina, Creighton

10: Memphis, Miami (FL), San Francisco, Loyola Chicago

11: Wyoming, Davidson,Virginia Tech, (Indiana/Michigan)

12: (Texas A&M/Rutgers), UAB, South Dakota State, Chattanooga

13: New Mexico State, Richmond, Vermont, Montana State

14: Longwood, St. Peter’s, Akron, Yale

15: Jacksonville State, Delaware, Cal State Fullerton, Colgate

16: Georgia State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)

First Four Out: SMU, Notre Dame, Xavier, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, VCU, Florida, North Texas

Moving In: Richmond, Yale

Moving Out: SMU, Princeton

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

SEC: 7

Big East: 6

Big 12: 6

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Bracketology 3/13/2022 AM

Selection Sunday is upon us, and the bubble is extremely fluid. I’d be pretty surprised if I get all 68 teams right this year, the last few spots on the bubble are wide open. What’s nice about this year’s bubble is that there’s a lot of different flavors of teams to choose from. There’s a traditional high loss count power team (Oklahoma), a team with big wins and bad losses (Rutgers), a team getting hot at the right time (Texas A&M) and a team getting cold at the wrong time (Xavier).

I’ll have my final update this afternoon right after the Big Ten championship game ends. We could have some changes between now and then, Richmond is lurking as a potential bid thief and will slot into the bracket as a 13 seed should they beat Davidson today.

1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2: Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Villanova

3: Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

4: Illinois, UCLA, Arkansas, Providence

5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Iowa

6: Colorado State, USC, Texas, Alabama

7: LSU, Michigan State, Murray State, Boise State

8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State

9: Marquette, TCU, North Carolina, Creighton

10: Memphis, Miami (FL), San Francisco, Loyola Chicago

11: Davidson, Wyoming, Indiana, Virginia Tech

12: (Michigan/Texas A&M), (Rutgers/SMU), UAB, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, New Mexico State, Vermont, Princeton

14: Montana State, Longwood, St. Peter’s, Akron

15: Jacksonville State, Delaware, Cal State Fullerton, Colgate

16: Georgia State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)

First Four Out: Notre Dame, Xavier, Wake Forest, Oklahoma

Next Four Out: VCU, Florida, North Texas, BYU

Moving In: Texas A&M, SMU, Texas Southern, Akron, Cal State Fullerton

Moving Out: Xavier, Notre Dame, Alcorn State, Kent State, Long Beach State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

SEC: 7

Big East: 6

Big 12: 6

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

Bracketology 3/12/2022

Virginia Tech won their third game in three days and moves into my field for the first time since December. I think that the true bubble right now is 8 teams (Rutgers, Xavier, Virginia Tech, SMU, Wake Forest, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and VCU) for 3 spots. I would add that the bubble is likely to contract by 1 team, Davidson is less than 50/50 to win the Atlantic 10 tournament which would lead to a bid being stolen.

The Saturday of conference tournament week is one of the best days of the college hoops season, buckle up and enjoy.

1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas

2: Kentucky, Auburn, Purdue, Villanova

3: Duke, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

4: UCLA, Providence, Arkansas, Illinois

5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, LSU

6: Iowa, Colorado State, Texas, USC

7: Murray State, Michigan State, Alabama, Boise State

8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State

9: North Carolina, Creighton, TCU, Marquette

10: San Francisco, Davidson, Memphis, Miami (FL)

11: Wyoming, Loyola Chicago, Indiana, Michigan

12: (Notre Dame/Rutgers), (Xavier/Virginia Tech), UAB, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton

14: Montana State, Colgate, Longwood, St. Peter’s

15: Jacksonville State, Kent State, Georgia State, Long Beach State

16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Alcorn State/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)

First Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Texas A&M, Oklahoma

Next Four Out: VCU, Dayton, Florida, BYU

Also Considered: Mississippi State, North Texas, UAB, Colorado

Moving In: Virginia Tech, UAB, Kent State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi

Moving Out: SMU, North Texas, Toledo, Nicholls State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big East: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

Mountain West: 4

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

American: 2

Bracketology 3/11/2022

Some bubble teams from outside the bracket are making a charge into consideration this week. Oklahoma picked up a massive win over Baylor and will likely move into the field if they beat Texas Tech today. Virginia Tech has strung together two close wins and takes on North Carolina today. Texas A&M knocked off fellow bubble team Florida and has a chance for a marquee win against Auburn.

I’ll be scrubbing the entire seed list between now and Sunday morning so expect some changes between now and then. 42 of the 60 teams in at-large consideration are still alive in their conference tournaments so there are plenty of data points still to come.

1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas

2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova

3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech

4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas

5: Connecticut, Houston, St. Mary’s, LSU

6: Colorado State, Texas, USC, Iowa

7: Murray State, Boise State, Alabama, Michigan State

8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, North Carolina, Iowa State

9: TCU, San Diego State, San Francisco, Marquette

10: Davidson, Creighton, Wyoming, Miami (FL)

11: Memphis, Loyola Chicago, Rutgers, Michigan

12: (Notre Dame/Xavier), (SMU/Indiana), North Texas, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Vermont, New Mexico State

14: Princeton, Montana State, Colgate, Longwood

15: St. Peter’s, Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Long Beach State

16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)

First Four Out: VCU, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, North Texas

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Dayton, Texas A&M, Florida

Also Considered: BYU, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado

Moving In: Indiana

Moving Out: VCU

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big East: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

Bracketology 3/10/2022

It was a wild day on the bubble as both Wake Forest and Xavier lost in overtime as decent favorites. I have moved Wake Forest out of the field in favor of VCU for now. The Demon Deacons have just 1 Q1 win at Virginia Tech as well as a horrible non-conference schedule. It’s a testament to how weak the ACC is this year that a 23-9 ACC team is in danger of missing the tournament.

More bubble teams are in action today. Indiana, Florida and Oklahoma are among the teams that must win today to keep their at-large hopes alive.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas

2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova

3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech

4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas

5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Texas

6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa

7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State

8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina

9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU

10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton

11: Memphis, Michigan, Loyola Chicago, Rutgers

12: (Notre Dame/Xavier), (SMU/VCU), North Texas, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Vermont, New Mexico State

14: Princeton, Montana State, Colgate, Longwood

15: St. Peter’s, Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Long Beach State

16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, North Texas, Dayton, Indiana

Next Four Out: Florida, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU

Also Considered: Texas A&M, Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB

Moving In: St. Peter’s, VCU

Moving Out: Iona, Wake Forest

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big East: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

Atlantic 10: 2

Bracketology 3/9/2022

Power conference bubble teams start their conference tournaments today. Xavier takes on Butler, the Musketeers will be pretty safe with a win but in some danger with a loss. Wake Forest plays Boston College and would probably slide out of the field with a loss. Virginia Tech plays Clemson and would be eliminated from consideration with a loss.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas

2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova

3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech

4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas

5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Texas

6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa

7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State

8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina

9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU

10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton

11: Memphis, Michigan, Xavier, Loyola Chicago

12: (Rutgers/Notre Dame), (Wake Forest/SMU), North Texas, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Iona, Vermont

14: New Mexico State, Princeton, Montana State, Colgate

15: Longwood, Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Long Beach State

16: Delaware, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)

First Four Out: VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Florida

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado

Moving In: Jacksonville State

Moving Out: Jacksonville

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big East: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

Mountain West: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

Bracketology 3/8/2022

Monday’s action produced no changes to the bubble. Santa Clara was a potential bid thief in the WCC but they fell at the buzzer to St. Mary’s, the WCC looks very likely to send 3 teams to the tournament.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas

2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova

3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech

4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas

5: Houston, St. Mary’s, Connecticut, Texas

6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa

7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State

8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina

9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU

10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton

11: Memphis, Michigan, Xavier, Loyola Chicago

12: (Rutgers/Notre Dame), (Wake Forest/SMU), North Texas, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Iona, Vermont

14: New Mexico State, Princeton, Montana State, Colgate

15: Longwood, Jacksonville, Georgia State, Long Beach State

16: Delaware, (Bryant/Wright State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)

First Four Out: VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Florida

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado

Moving In: Delaware, Wright State

Moving Out: Towson, Cleveland State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big East: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

Mountain West: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

Bracketology 3/7/2022

It was a weekend of clarity on the bubble as most of the teams who were barely in the field (Michigan, Memphis, Rutgers etc.) won while those who were barely out of it (VCU, Florida, Virginia Tech etc.) lost. I suspect there is probably a lot of consensus among the first 67 teams in the field and most people will have SMU in the last spot as well.

I have a full bracket below my seed list as well today. I will be updating my seed list daily from now until Selection Sunday.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Kansas

2: Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova

3: Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas Tech

4: Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas

5: Houston, St. Mary’s, Connecticut, Texas

6: LSU, Colorado State, USC, Iowa

7: Alabama, Murray State, Ohio State, Boise State

8: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, North Carolina

9: San Diego State, Marquette, San Francisco, TCU

10: Davidson, Wyoming, Miami (FL), Creighton

11: Memphis, Michigan, Xavier, Loyola Chicago

12: (Rutgers/Notre Dame), (Wake Forest/SMU), North Texas, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, Toledo, Iona, Vermont

14: Towson, New Mexico State, Princeton, Montana State

15: Colgate, Longwood, Jacksonville, Georgia State

16: Long Beach State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Cleveland State), (Nicholls State/Alcorn State)

First Four Out: VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Florida

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, BYU, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Oregon, Mississippi State, UAB, Colorado

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big East: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

Mountain West: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

2022 Arch Madness Preview

I’m headed to St. Louis for the Missouri Valley Men’s Basketball Tournament, or “Arch Madness” as it’s commonly known. It figures to be a great tournament- Loyola is clearly the team to beat, but the MVC is a deep league with five or six teams capable of winning the title. To prepare for the tournament, here’s a full preview.

#1 Northern Iowa Panthers (Kenpom 89, T-Rank 92)

The Panthers play really small, they're one of the smaller teams in D1. This means they're at the bottom of D1 in offensive rebounding rate and block rate. They shoot a lot of mid-range and do it rather efficiently. They also take great care of the ball and don't turn it over much. They play a lot of lineups where everyone on the floor is between 6'3" and 6'7".

The two names to know here are AJ Green (#4) and Noah Carter (#35). Green is a hometown product from Cedar Falls and mainly plays the two but can run point as well. He's shooting 38% from 3 on 7 attempts a game. Carter is 6'6" but plays most of his minutes as a small ball five.

The Panthers are a proud program that would've been right on the cut line for an at-large had the 2020 NCAA Tournament had it happened. They're quite lucky to be the 1 seed but when they're hitting shots, they'll be hard to beat.

#2 Missouri State Bears (Kempom 63, T-Rank 74)

The Bears are the clear second favorite to win the tournament and feature a national top-25 offense. This is one of the best shooting teams outside the power conferences, they're shooting 37% on 3's, 55% on 2's and 80% at the line.

This is a two man team. Isiaih Mobley (#1) is a fantastic combo guard who is shooting a staggering 52% on 7 mid-range attempts a game, and 42% on 5 3 point attempts a game. He leads the conference in usage. Gaige Prim (#44) is a 6'9" big who leads the conference in block rate and is a great finisher at the rim.

Missouri State has not been to the Big Dance since a 1999 trip to the Sweet 16. This team not only has the capability to make it to the tournament, but they can win a game once there.

#3 Drake Bulldogs (Kenpom 88, T-Rank 89)

The Bulldogs are a veteran squad that returns lots of minutes from last year's NCAA tournament team. They play a lot of iso ball, ranking near the bottom of D1 in assists per field goals made. They have a balanced squad with no player exceeding a 24% usage rate.

The most important contributors are senior guards Roman Penn (#1) and Garrett Sturtz (#3). At six feet, Penn is a true point guard who is more of a distributor than a scorer. Sturtz loves to drive to the bucket and is a good finisher when he gets there.

Drake is coming off their best season in a decade, as they snuck into the NCAA tournament, winning a First Four Game and bowing out the USC in the Round of 64. This team got some at-large buzz in the preseason before an 0-3 trip to the ESPN Events Invitational in November killed those hopes, but they are a contender at Arch Madness.

#4 Loyola Chicago Ramblers (Kenpom 30, T-Rank 47)

The Ramblers are the most balanced team in the field with a top 50 offense and defense. This is a veteran team that likes to play slow. They love to shoot the 3 and do it very efficiently, making them one of the best shooting team in D1.

The Ramblers have a deep rotation but the most important players are Lucas Williamson (#1) and Braden Norris (#4). The upperclassmen guards both shoot 40% from 3 on decent volume. Norris is more of a true point guard who leads the team in assist rate while Williamson is a scorer who is not afraid to go to the rim to find his shot.

Loyola is the clear favorite to win the tournament, and they have been the class of the conference for the last 5 years. They are in the thick of the NCAA tournament picture here and likely need a win or two in St. Louis to have a chance at an at-large.

#5 Bradley Braves (Kenpom 90, T-Rank 87)

The Braves are the most defensive-oriented team in the field. Unsurprisingly, they're also the biggest, with plenty of lineups featuring 3 6'7" players or taller. They do well on the offensive glass but turn the ball over too much.

Sophomore Dutch big man Rienk Mast (#51) is the most intriguing player on this team. He's taken big strides from his freshman year and is very productive on the offensive and defensive glass. Terry Roberts (#0) adds to the league's collection of good upperclassmen guards.

Bradley has won this tournament as a middling seed twice recently, in 2019 and 2020. This team is a bit better than those ones, so they have to be taken seriously as a contender.

#6 Southern Illinois Salukis (Kenpom 119, T-Rank 120)

The Salukis have a unique style of basketball, playing at one of the slowest tempos in all of Division 1. They shoot the 3 well but struggle a lot on the offensive glass.

Like Missouri State, this is a two man team. Junior guard Lance Jones (#5) has a league-high usage rate (31%) although lacks the efficiency numbers to back it up. Marcus Domask (#1) mainly plays the 4 and is the team's most efficient player.

The Salukis are unlucky to be 16-14 as they have lost lots of close games. This program went to 6 consecutive NCAA tournaments from 2002 to 2007 with 2 trips to the Sweet 16, they'll be looking for their first ticket to the Big Dance in 15 years.

#7 Valparaiso Beacons (Kenpom 202, T-Rank 215)

The Beacons are an OK shooting team but pretty poor on the glass. They like to play pretty slow, especially on defense where they force long possessions.

The best player on the team is big man Ben Krikke (#23). The 6'9" Canadian finishes well at the rim and is a good free throw shooter for his size. Senior guard Kobe King (#35) shoots a decent amount of mid-range and takes good care of the ball.

Valparaiso basketball has been dominated by the Drew family, with patriarch Homer coaching the Beacons for two decades and sons Scott and Bryce having stints as well. In 2016, Valpo nearly got an at-large and made it to the NIT championship game. Since then, it's been all downhill.

#8 Illinois State Redbirds (Kenpom 184, T-Rank 195)

The Redbirds have a fun up-tempo offense, they like to run the floor and they shoot the 3 well. Their defense, however, is quite poor, and they struggle on the glass.

Junior wing Antonio Reeves (#12) does a lot for the Redbirds, he shoots 39% from 3 on 6 attempts a game. A lot of his baskets are assisted by 5'10" point guard Mark Freeman (#0), a transfer from Tennessee State who is a good passer but not much of a shooter.

Dan Muller is in his 10th year at Illinois State and his 2017 squad should have gotten an at-large bid, but fell just short and got a 1 seed in the NIT. Outside of that, it's been a pretty rough decade for the Redbirds.