College Football Ratings Week 1 2023
Week 1 is in the books and it was a fun one. I viewed the ACC as a tossup between Florida State and Clemson in the preseason but that shifted massively as Florida State dominated LSU and Clemson lost to Duke. The Seminoles are now even money to win the conference title, up from +225 or so before week 1.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Florida State (+4)
Michigan
Alabama (-2)
Tennessee (+5)
Notre Dame (+5)
Texas (-2)
LSU (-4)
Clemson (-2)
Texas A&M (-1)
Oregon (+2)
Penn State (-4)
USC (+4)
Utah (-2)
Oklahoma (+8)
Washington (+4)
North Carolina (+8)
Auburn (-3)
Ole Miss (-5)
Kansas State (-1)
Florida (+3)
Oregon State (+7)
Wisconsin (-5)
Mississippi State (-8)
LSU fell four spots after their loss to Florida State. The Tigers were viewed as co-favorites to win the SEC West in the preseason but now are only looking like 3 point favorites or so against Mississippi State next weekend. Oklahoma could not have looked better against Arkansas State, throwing for 12 yards per attempt in a dominating 73-0. The Sooners now look like Texas’ biggest competition in the Big 12.
Moving Up
In these sections, the number after a team’s name indicates by how much their rating changed- i.e. a +7 indicates that I think this team is 7 points better than I did a week ago.
Texas State (+9.2) was unquestionably the biggest surprise of week 1. I was a huge seller of the Bobcats in the preseason, thinking they were one of the worst teams in FBS. They responded with their biggest win in program history, upsetting Baylor on the road. Colorado (+6.3) stole the headlines with their win over TCU- I still think the Buffaloes have some serious problems on the lines but their skill position talent is undeniable. Utah State (+5.4) outgained Iowa in a loss and if not for a few missed fourth downs could have won outright.
Moving Down
Nevada (-5.2) allowed USC to score 66 points and rack up 12 yards per play, which is generally not a recipe for success. Arkansas State (-4.8) was destroyed by Oklahoma and it’s looking like it could be Butch Jones’ last year in charge of the Red Wolves. Virginia (-3.8) underperformed my low expectations against Tennessee and could be headed for one of their worst seasons in recent memory.