College Football Picks Week 2 2023
Week 1 was a disaster. I hit on UConn but lost on all my other picks. The clear low point was Baylor -27.5 who managed to lose outright. The good news is that week 1 was even worse last year (-12.86 units) and I managed to come back to finish the year in the black.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1 -7.37 units
Season Total: -6.55 units
North Texas @ FIU (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
FIU was kind to me in week 0 and I’m betting on them once again. The Golden Panthers have no shortage of problems, as this is a team that only scored 14 points against Maine last week. However I do think their roster is more talented than the rest of the FBS doldrums as they’ve brought in some Power Five transfers. North Texas’ defense looked positively awful against Cal last week and even a weak FIU attack should be able to score on them.
FIU +12 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +390 (0.5 units)
Nebraska @ Colorado (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
My model had no clue what to make of Colorado in the preseason, as there’s really no precedent for a team completely rebuilding out of the portal the way the Buffs did. I was as surprised as anybody to see them beat TCU last week, but I think this line is a bit of an overreaction. Nebraska really should have won last week and actually moved up in my ratings after their loss to Minnesota. This line was Nebraska -5 or so in the preseason- while Colorado impressed last week, I don’t think it’s justified to move 8 points on the back of one game.
Nebraska +3 -115 (2 units)
Texas State @ UTSA (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I bet against Texas State last week and we all saw how well that went. I’m back to do it again, but my reasoning is a bit different this time. The logic is similar to the Colorado game- I think people overreact to individual data points early in the season. I think Texas State is a full 9 points better than I did a week ago but that doesn’t justify this price- UTSA has one of the most talented rosters than Texas State and has better players at every position group. The Roadrunners should roll here.
UTSA -14 -110 (2 units)
New Mexico State @ Liberty (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
This was a fantastic matchup last year as New Mexico State beat Liberty outright as a three touchdown underdog. I like the Aggies once again here- I was a seller of Liberty in the preseason and continue to be so here. They did nothing to change my mind in week 1 with a narrow win over a bad Bowling Green team. New Mexico State is much better than they were a few years ago and can hang with the Flames.
New Mexico State +9.5 -105 (1 unit)
New Mexico State ML +300 (0.5 units)
Miami (OH) @ UMass (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I was all over UMass over 2 wins in the preseason. We’re halfway there, as the Minutemen knocked off New Mexico State as a 7 point underdog in week 0. I think they have a great chance to pick up their second win here. Miami was one of the worst bowl teams in recent memory last year and replaces a lot of their offense from last year’s team. They looked positively awful in week 1 and I like a small play on UMass.
UMass +6.5 -108 (1 unit)
New Mexico State ML/FIU ML +1860