College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 4

This is my final installment in my preseason bets series. Today I’ll be going through my favorite bets in the Big Ten and the SEC, in parts 1, 2 and 3 I covered the rest of the country.

Mississippi State Over 6.5 wins +145 (2 units)

Tragedy struck Mississippi State with the sudden death of HC Mike Leach last December. Zach Arnett steps into the job as a defensive-minded coach who inherits a great QB in Will Rogers. The Bulldogs have been a darling of my ratings for years, and finished last year 14th. There will be some bumps along the road this year given the scheme changes but with Rogers at the helm I still think they’ll be a top 25 outfit, and that’s enough to win seven games even in the rugged SEC West.

Alabama Under 10.5 wins -175 (2 units)

For the first time since 2015, Alabama will start the season outside the top 2 of my preseason ratings. I have the Crimson Tide all the way down at third (!) behind Georgia and Ohio State. The biggest question mark is at quarterback, where Bryce Young departs and the succession plan remains unclear. Further complicating matters is the fact that Alabama plays 4 games against my preseason top 10 and 8 games against my top 25. There’s no doubt that they’re one of the best teams in the sport, but the gap between them and the rest of the SEC has closed a bit this year.

Iowa Under 8 wins +125 (2 units)

Iowa really leaned into the bit last year, putting up one of the most unique seasons in recent memory. They had the best defense in college football and an offense so allergic to the downfield pass that it would make Bo Schembechler proud. While other teams in the Big Ten West are pivoting towards a more modern attack, Iowa is sticking to their guns and will try to muscle their way to a division championship. There’s nowhere for the offense to go but up and Cade McNamara is a big improvement on their 2022 quarterback play. However the defense will take a step back from their elite status and I don’t think Iowa can bully their way to an eight win season.

Texas A&M +8.5 -110 vs. Alabama (2 units)

There are a lot of lookahead lines available for Alabama, and I considered betting against them in several given that I’m a bit low on the Crimson Tide this year. However, I thought that this one delivered the most value. Texas A&M will be under the spotlight this year as Jimbo Fisher’s squad looks to rebound from a horrendous 5-7 season. I have the Aggies 10th in my preseason ratings, a bit higher than the consensus which has them in the teens. The 2022 squad finished 24th in my ratings despite the losing record and the talent level on the roster is in the top 5 of the sport given the years of recruiting success Fisher has had. I have A&M third in the SEC West and think they can once again take down Alabama at home like they did in 2021.

Wisconsin to win Big Ten West +105 (1 unit)

Given that I’m down on Iowa this year, it makes sense to bet on their biggest competition in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin is completely remaking themselves under new HC Luke Fickell, who has brought in pass-happy OC Phil Longo from North Carolina and a bevy of offensive transfers. My model likes what it sees in the talent on both sides of the ball here and ranks Wisconsin 18th, a bit higher than the fringe top 25 outfit they are elsewhere. Given that I don’t like Iowa this year, it also makes the Badgers the clear best team in the division.