College Football Preview: Preseason Top 25
We’re now less than a week away from college football season, which means it’s time for my preseason top 25. My model is more similar to other computer ratings than the human polls in the preseason. There’s a lot of SEC teams in the bottom end of my top 25 that my model likes given the talent levels on their roster. On the other hand, I’m lower on less talented 2022 surprise teams like Tulane and Oregon State.
Numbers in parentheses represent a team’s change in rank from my final 2022 ratings.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State (+2)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan (+3)
LSU (-2)
Texas (+2)
Florida State (+2)
Clemson (+4)
Penn State (-4)
Texas A&M (+14)
Tennessee (-5)
Notre Dame (+7)
Utah (-2)
Oregon (+4)
Ole Miss (+2)
Auburn (+16)
Mississippi State (-3)
USC (+21)
Wisconsin (+17)
Kansas State (+1)
Washington (-6)
Kentucky (+6)
Missouri (+17)
Oklahoma (+17)
Florida (+13)
Georgia opens the season pretty far ahead of the rest of the pack. I would make the Bulldogs a 5.5 point favorite against #2 Ohio State on a neutral field. My top 5 are identical to the AP Poll (albeit in a slightly different order), but things change a bit after that. I’m pretty high on Texas this year and think the Longhorns have a great shot at their first playoff. Elsewhere in the Lone Star state, Texas A&M is all the way up at #10 despite being in the 20s elsewhere thanks to their years of elite recruiting classes.
My view on the Pac-12 is quite a bit different from the consensus. I was low on USC last year and I am once again this year, no one else has them as low as I do at 18th. I make Oregon and Utah the co-favorites for the conference title, although it will be tough for any team out west to make the playoff given how deep the conference is.