College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 3

This is part 3 of 4 of my preseason bets series. In part 1 and part 2 of this series I went through my favorite bets in the Group of Five. Today I’ll cover my picks in the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC.

Stanford Over 3 wins +135 (4 units)

Stanford went 3-9 last year but were a bit better than that record suggests, beating Notre Dame and having some bad luck in one score games. They do lose almost everyone from that team though, including QB Tanner McKee who was drafted by the Eagles.

One of the biggest changes I made to my ratings this year is increasing the weight of recent recruiting data. No team was a bigger beneficiary of this than Stanford- the Cardinals have signed 4 top 50 classes in a row, two of them in the top 25. Even though this team is inexperienced, I think there is some talent on the roster given the number of three and four stars they have.

The schedule isn’t easy for first year head coach Troy Taylor, they will be favored only against Hawai’i and Taylor’s former school (Sacramento State). However I think they’re more talented than the rest of the bottom end of the Pac-12 and can steal a few wins in conference play.

Oklahoma Under 9.5 wins -120 (4 units)

Last year was shocking for Oklahoma- the Sooners are one of two teams in the sport who have never been bad (the other, of course, is Ohio State). Even Alabama spent the 1990s in the wilderness. Oklahoma finished last season 41st in my ratings, their lowest finish since I started keeping records in 2011. There’s enough talent on this roster that they should improve over last year’s team but this win total implies they’re a top 15 team in the country. The Sooners return an average amount of talent from last year’s team, but teams don’t often make the jump from the forties to the teens unless they’re incredibly experienced.

Kansas Over 6 wins -125 (3 units)

Kansas to make Big 12 Title Game +1200 (0.5 units)

I bet on Kansas over 2.5 wins last year and had one of the easiest cashes of my life as they started the season 5-0, even getting ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 2009. I’m not getting as cheap a price this year but I like the Jayhawks once again. I just don’t understand this price- last year’s team was legitimately good, finishing 42nd in my ratings. 17 starters return including electric QB Jalon Daniels who is my pick for 1st team all-conference. I think that the 2023 Jayhawks will be an improvement on 2022 and they should make a bowl easily.

Kansas +7 -110 vs. Oklahoma (2 units)

Considering that I’m both betting on Kansas and betting against Oklahoma, it should be no surprise that this is one of my favorite lookahead lines of the year. My numbers make Kansas a very small favorite in this game.

Houston Over 4.5 wins -140 (3 units)

Houston is one of four teams making the jump from the American to the Big 12 this season. Last year’s final record was a bit of a disappointment at 8-5, but the Cougars were better than their record, finishing 31st in my ratings. They’re projected to take a big step back this year, which makes sense given that they take a big step up in weight class and replace most of last year’s team. However, I don’t agree with this line that places them at the bottom of the Big 12- unlike some of the other new entrants to the conference, Houston has been recruiting at a Power Five level and they have the talent to make a bowl this year.

Georgia Tech Over 4.5 wins +120 (1 unit)

Georgia Tech fired Geoff Collins at mid-season last year and retained interim Brent Key after an exciting second half of the season that featured wins over Pitt and North Carolina as three touchdown underdogs. I’m optimistic about the Yellow Jackets this season- they have an exciting quarterback in 4-star Texas A&M transfer Haynes King and finally have a roster that wasn’t recruited for the flexbone. They play a lot of the bottom feeders in the ACC and I make them a favorite in 6 games this year, so I think they can make a bowl.

Utah to win the Pac-12 +600 (1 unit)

I had a Utah to win the Pac-12 ticket last year at +240 which cashed, and I’m here to do it again. The Utes are looking to threepeat as conference champions in what very well could be the last year of Pac-12 football. I see USC, Utah and Oregon as pretty evenly matched at the top of the conference which makes the Utes a bargain at +600 compared to the +190 and +300 prices of the Ducks and Trojans. Utah will play their usual brand of tough football with one of the best defenses and one of the best offensive lines in the sport and while it’s not a glamorous style of play, it is a good one.