College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 2

This is part 2 of 4 of my preseason bets series. In this installation I’ll tackle the rest of the Group of Five bets that I didn’t get to in part 1 of this series.

UMass Over 2 wins -130 (6 units)

UMass is one of the worst teams in FBS, finishing last year 127th out of 131 teams in my ratings. However, longtime readers of this site will know that I love to bet on the worst teams in the sport. I project significant improvement from the Minutemen this year and think they stand a very good chance of winning multiple games for the first time since 2018. They return 15 starters from last year’s squad and should have their most experienced team in years. Most importantly, they bring in transfer quarterback Taisun Phommachanh. Phommachanh is a former 4 star recruit who signed with Clemson out of high school- while he hasn’t lived up to that billing in college (otherwise he would not be at UMass), he’s the most talented QB to come through Amherst in a long time.

The schedule lines up nicely for the Minutemen. They’ll be a double digit favorite against FCS Merrimack, and I make them a favorite against New Mexico and Arkansas State as well. I make them a single digit underdog in 4 other games as well, they only play 3 teams in the top half of my ratings. 2023 UMass can emulate the success of 2022 UConn and be the surprise of the Northeast.

Texas State Under 4.5 wins -175 (4 units)

Texas State has been the most mismanaged program in FBS in recent years but finally made a good hire in Incarnate Word’s G.J. Kinne. I like the long term potential of this program in a fertile recruiting area but Kinne will take a bit to get going and the Bobcats have gone under 4.5 wins in each of the last 7 seasons. As you’d expect with the coaching change, they don’t return much talent and they’ll have horrible defensive numbers. Years of neglect on the recruiting trail have caught up to them as they have the worst recruiting ranking in my system of any team in FBS. 5 wins haven’t been seen in San Marcos since 2014 and I doubt that changes this year.

Troy Under 8 wins +135 (3 units)

Troy had a fantastic season last year going 12-2 and finishing #19 in the AP Poll, their first ranked finish in school history. They did get pretty lucky, only finishing 74th in my final ratings and winning a slew of close games. I expect the Trojans to regress a bit this year- they’re at about the 25th percentile for returning experience and are particularly light on the offensive line, which my model cares a lot about. This is still a good team but they significantly outperformed last year and I expect them to come back down to earth a bit with a 6-6 or 7-5 type season.

Colorado State Over 4.5 wins -165 (2 units)

This line doesn’t make much sense to me. Colorado State was not particularly good last year, but the same could be said about the whole Mountain West and they finished as the exact average team in the conference. They return an above average amount of talent and just signed their best recruiting class in school history, so they should improve a bit and become a top half team in the league.

South Alabama to win the Sun Belt West +155 (2 units)

The Sun Belt West was a two horse race between Troy and South Alabama last year and I expect the same this year. Troy went 12-2 and South Alabama went 10-3, the best season in recent history for each team. Given that I’m down on Troy it makes sense to bet on South Alabama to win the division- I’m not betting on the Jaguars’ win total because of their brutal non-conference slate but they’re the clear best team in the West. 18 starters return from last year’s team and they’re a sleeper pick for the NY6 if they can get through their brutal September schedule.