College Football Picks Week 9

Week 1: +1.82 units

Week 2: +9.9 units

Week 3: +5.37 units

Week 4: +12.84 units

Week 5: +5.54 units

Week 6: +0.14 units

Week 7: -3.6 units

Week 8: -4.13 units

Season: +27.88 units

Last week was my worst of the year, with some bigger misses on some of the teams that started their season last week. In the Mountain West, I was very bullish on Wyoming and Air Force, which didn’t pay off. And in the Big Ten, I miscalculated on Iowa. Still, I won enough elsewhere that I only lost a touch more than 4 units on the week.

Georgia @ Kentucky

Georgia is pretty clearly the second best team in the SEC, and has a legitimate shot at the playoff. Kentucky put up an abysmal showing against Mizzou last week that has led to them being a big underdog here. Every Kentucky game this season has been a dogfight and they’re a tough team to blowout, I like the Wildcats and the points here.

Kentucky +17 -112 (3 units)

Kentucky ML +600 (0.5 units)

Boise State @ Air Force

The conventional wisdom is that Boise State is the best team in the Mountain West, just since they conventionally have been. I think there’s a lot of talent on the Broncos’ roster, but I’m not convinced they’re head and shoulders better than the rest of the league. I like Air Force here, the Falcons are better than they showed against San Jose State last week.

Air Force +14 -114 (3 units)

Air Force ML +450 (0.5 units)

LSU @ Auburn

Auburn is quite lucky to be 3-2, they’ve had multiple questionable calls bounce their way so far this season. They’ve now fallen out of my top 25 and could be a bottom half SEC team. LSU looks to have figured things out after a nice win against South Carolina and should stay on track here.

LSU -2.5 -109 (2 units)

Charlotte @ Duke

Duke may have made a blunder choosing Charlotte as their non-conference opponent this year, as the 49ers could be fielding their best team in program history. I love betting G5 teams on the road against shaky P5 teams, and will be doing so here. Charlotte’s only losses are to solid App State and FAU teams and they’re better than a decent number of P5 teams.

Charlotte +9.5 -109 (2 units)

Charlotte ML +270 (0.5 units)

Michigan State @ Michigan

Michigan looked great last week against Minnesota and Michigan State looked horrible against Rutgers. I think this line overreacted to those results- Michigan State suffered from some bad luck against Rutgers, with 7 turnovers including 5 fumbles lost. That’s not going to happen every week, and the Spartans’ defense can help them cover.

Michigan State +24.5 -110 (2 units)

Michigan State ML +1300 (0.25 units)

Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State

Coastal Carolina has been one of the surprises of the season so far, earning their first top 25 ranking in program history. I think the Chanticleers are legit, as they rank #40 in my ratings this week. Georgia State is going to put up some points, but has one of the weaker defenses in the Sun Belt and I don’t think they can keep up here.

Coastal Carolina -3 -109 (1 unit)

TCU @ Baylor

Both of these teams have disappointed so far this year and are looking to avoid a further slip. I’m more worried about TCU, who was quite lucky to pick up their one win of the year against Texas and were not competitive against Oklahoma last week. I like Baylor for a small play here.

Baylor +2 -109 (1 unit)

Air Force, Charlotte ML Parlay +1935 (0.1 units)

Kentucky, Michigan State ML Parlay +9700 (0.1 units)