College Football Picks Week 8
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.6 units
Last week was my first losing week of the year. LSU’s game got cancelled, and I lost my other two picks. With the Big Ten and Mountain West coming back this week, there’s a lot more disagreement between my model and the market than there has been the last few weeks.
Stay tuned for updates here this week- there were two more picks I had (Northwestern -10.5 and Illinois +19.5) where the line has gone off the board at my book, if they get re-listed at good prices I will add the picks here.
Iowa @ Purdue (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)
I am higher on Iowa than pretty much everyone else, they’re currently #10 in my ratings. The main reason is that the Hawkeyes have an incredibly talented offensive line, easily one of the nation’s best. They were a legitimate top 15 team last year and have the returning talent to be similarly good this year.
Iowa -3.5 -105 (3 units)
Hawaii @ Fresno State (Saturday 6:30 PM Central)
Hawaii had their best team in years last year, picking up 10 wins. They lost star QB Cole McDonald, but my model still expects them to have a solid offense this year. Fresno State was pretty bad last year and is breaking in a new system on both sides of the ball, I like the Rainbow Warriors here.
Hawaii +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Air Force @ San Jose State (Saturday 9:30 PM Central)
Air Force is the only Mountain West team to have played so far this year when they demolished Navy. I bet the Falcons there and am doing so again here- they are the second best team in the league in my opinion. San Jose State was much improved last year, but has a long way to go before being able to compete with the top of the conference
Air Force -6.5 -115 (2 units)
Wyoming @ Nevada (Saturday 6 PM Central)
I expect to be betting on Wyoming often this season, they’re perhaps the team I am most bullish on relative to the consensus in college football this year. Of their 5 losses last year, 4 were by 1 score or less. I always emphasize talent on the lines, and they return most everyone of note on both the O-Line and D-Line. If I didn’t like Nevada a decent amount, this would be a bigger bet.
Wyoming -4.5 -113 (2 units)
Florida Atlantic @ Marshall (Saturday 1:30 PM Central)
I’ve been itching to bet on FAU for weeks now, but their games keep getting postponed due to COVID. The Owls finished last year as a legitimate top 25 team, and return a decent amount of their offense from that squad. Marshall is undoubtedly the best team in CUSA, but I think FAU could be #2.
Florida Atlantic +16.5 -114 (2 units)
FAU ML +600 (0.5 units)
Tulsa @ South Florida (Friday 6:30 PM Central)
This line is just puzzling to me. Tulsa is clearly solid, they’ve played 2 games so far against top 20 teams (Oklahoma State and UCF) and split them. South Florida, meanwhile, is clearly the worst team in the American after their drubbing at the hands of ECU a few weeks ago. Tulsa should be at least a two touchdown favorite here.
Tulsa -10.5 -106 (2 units)
Michigan @ Minnesota (Saturday 6:30 PM Central)
Minnesota was one of the most exciting teams in college football last year, posting their best year in decades. The Golden Gophers have a top 10 offense this year as they return a ton of talent from last year’s squad. Michigan, meanwhile, is going to be weak on the lines and has less skill talent than you’d think.
Minnesota +3.5 -118 (2 units)
Penn State @ Indiana (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)
Indiana was a fun story last year, as they got their first AP ranking since the 1990s in November. They’ve gotten a bit of hype thanks to some nice skill talent, but outside of a handful of playmakers on offense there is not much legitimate Big Ten talent on the roster. Penn State has a legitimate shot at the playoff and should roll here.
Penn State -6.5 -114 (1 unit)